# Football Edge Lab > Independent football probabilities from separate league-specific Dixon–Coles models, with dated sources and a public pre-match prediction record. Live bookmaker prices are not collected. Not betting advice. Facts that can be quoted with a link to the page they come from: - [Full structured data context (llms-full.txt)](https://footballedgelab.com/llms-full.txt): complete tables, model-predicted goals, over/under 2.5, BTTS, top scorelines, season projections and cross-league comparisons. - Match goal forecasts come from a score model; they are not shot-based xG statistics. Published goal-line probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Preserve each forecast's timestamp, model version and competition when quoting it. - The model is trained on Premier League full-time results since 2005-06, with a one-year half-life, and adjusts expected goals for injured, suspended and doubtful players listed by Fantasy Premier League. - On 1141 held-out matches from 2023-09-23 to 2026-09-20, the model's log loss was 0.991 and de-vigged closing prices scored 0.969 (lower is better). Closing prices were more accurate. - Every number on a match page comes from the program; any written text is checked against those numbers before publication. ## Project identity and public research resources - [About Football Edge Lab](https://footballedgelab.com/about): the independent project publishes the Football Edge Lab web application and the research dataset below. - [Football Edge Lab web application](https://footballedgelab.com): free football forecasts and what-if season simulations for six European leagues. - [Football Edge Lab on Product Hunt](https://www.producthunt.com/products/football-edge-lab): product launch and community feedback for the web application. - Dataset: Football Weather and Fixture Congestion Backtests, version 1, created by Football Edge Lab. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.23438628. These records identify the dataset, not separate organizations or the forecasting application. - [Zenodo archive and DOI](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23438628): archived v1 research results and documentation. - [Hugging Face dataset](https://huggingface.co/datasets/eatfreshapple/football-weather-fixture-congestion): archived v1 research results and documentation. - [Kaggle dataset](https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/xucheng2022/football-weather-and-fixture-congestion-backtests): archived v1 research results and documentation. ## Original prediction experiments - [Do Weather and Fixture Congestion Improve Football Predictions?](https://footballedgelab.com/research/weather-and-fixture-congestion): We tested rain, wind, rest days and consecutive away games against a goals-only football model. Results, uncertainty and limitations from 60 comparisons. Published 2026-10-17; updated 2026-10-17. - [Did weather improve football prediction probabilities?](https://footballedgelab.com/research/weather-and-fixture-congestion#weather-answer): In Football Edge Lab's retrospective Premier League test against a separately calibrated goals-only control, none of 24 weather-and-target comparisons met the model-adoption rule. This does not establish that rain or other weather has no effect on matches. Sample: Premier League only. ERA5 reanalysis: 804 test fixtures (2024-04-27 to 2026-05-24). GFS nominal 48-hour forecasts: 281 test fixtures (2025-11-03 to 2026-05-24). The samples overlap. Limitations: Only 7 reanalysis and 4 forecast test fixtures met the hourly precipitation threshold. Precipitation includes snow; the grids do not measure pitch conditions. Forecast publication timestamps were not independently auditable. Experiment weather-v1; control model dc-v4; experiment run 2026-10-16T11:06:26.952887+00:00. - [Did rest days and consecutive away games improve football predictions?](https://footballedgelab.com/research/weather-and-fixture-congestion#schedule-answer): In Football Edge Lab's retrospective six-league test against a separately calibrated goals-only control, none of 36 league-and-variant comparisons met the model-adoption rule. These results do not establish that fatigue has no effect on matches. Sample: 4,894 test fixtures in six separate league samples (Premier League, Championship, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1), using league records from 2019–20 onward. League-specific test dates are supplied with every CSV row. The tests overlap the weather and earlier model research samples. Limitations: League-only fixtures omit cup games, national-team duty and player workload. Away sequences are venue sequences, not measured travel. There were no measured turnarounds of at most 48 hours in the test sample, so literal back-to-back games were not tested. Historical schedule announcements were not independently auditable. Experiment schedule-v1; control model dc-v4; experiment run 2026-10-16T11:14:41.460956+00:00. - [Download all comparisons, sample dates and adjusted intervals](https://footballedgelab.com/research/weather-and-fixture-congestion/results.csv). These retrospective studies do not establish causation, betting profit or superiority to market odds. ## Form, referee, shots and team-rating experiments - [Do recent form and winning streaks improve football predictions?](https://footballedgelab.com/methodology#recent-form): Across 6,846 test matches in six leagues, no recent-form or winning-streak addition met our adoption rule against separately calibrated goals-only controls. Small overall score improvements were insufficiently stable across both test halves. This does not show that successive results are independent. Samples: Premier League: 1,140 test matches, 2023-08-11 to 2026-05-24; Championship: 1,142 test matches, 2024-04-20 to 2026-05-02; La Liga: 1,140 test matches, 2023-08-11 to 2026-05-24; Bundesliga: 1,142 test matches, 2022-10-15 to 2026-05-16; Serie A: 1,140 test matches, 2023-08-19 to 2026-05-24; Ligue 1: 1,142 test matches, 2022-12-29 to 2026-05-17. Limitations: Retrospective, overlapping historical samples. The form and referee variants share a 54-comparison uncertainty adjustment; their results are not independent replications. Experiment form-referee-v1; [stored report](https://github.com/xucheng2024/football-edge-lab/blob/main/docs/research/form-referee-backtest.json). - [Does knowing the referee improve football prediction probabilities?](https://footballedgelab.com/methodology#referees): Across 2,282 Premier League and Championship test matches, referee identity, prior card tendencies and combined form/referee additions did not meet our adoption rule. No referee adjustment was adopted. This does not establish that refereeing has no effect on matches. Samples: Premier League: 1,140 test matches, 2023-08-11 to 2026-05-24; Championship: 1,142 test matches, 2024-04-20 to 2026-05-02. Limitations: The archive records the final referee but cannot prove the appointment was available 24 hours before kickoff. The target is match-result probabilities, not card-count prediction or causal refereeing effects. Experiment form-referee-v1; [stored report](https://github.com/xucheng2024/football-edge-lab/blob/main/docs/research/form-referee-backtest.json). - [Do historical shots on target improve football predictions?](https://footballedgelab.com/methodology#shots-on-target): Across 6,846 test matches in six leagues, adding each club's lagged shots on target did not meet the adoption rule. These are earlier match totals, not shot-location xG; no current-match statistics were used as pre-match inputs. Samples: Premier League: 1,140 test matches, 2023-08-11 to 2026-05-24; Championship: 1,142 test matches, 2024-04-20 to 2026-05-02; La Liga: 1,140 test matches, 2023-08-11 to 2026-05-24; Bundesliga: 1,142 test matches, 2022-10-15 to 2026-05-16; Serie A: 1,140 test matches, 2023-08-19 to 2026-05-24; Ligue 1: 1,142 test matches, 2022-12-29 to 2026-05-17. Limitations: The current production results feed lacks the required shots-on-target input. Retrospective statistical association would not by itself establish live availability or betting profit. Experiment lagged-sot-offset-v1; [stored report](https://github.com/xucheng2024/football-edge-lab/blob/main/docs/research/lagged-sot-backtest.json). - [Do season scoring rates or faster team ratings improve football predictions?](https://footballedgelab.com/methodology#team-and-season): Across 6,846 test matches in six leagues, none of the three additions—season scoring, 180-day team-rating decay, or both—met the adoption rule. The existing model was retained in every league. Samples: Premier League: 1,140 test matches, 2023-08-11 to 2026-05-24; Championship: 1,142 test matches, 2024-04-20 to 2026-05-02; La Liga: 1,140 test matches, 2023-08-11 to 2026-05-24; Bundesliga: 1,142 test matches, 2022-10-15 to 2026-05-16; Serie A: 1,140 test matches, 2023-08-19 to 2026-05-24; Ligue 1: 1,142 test matches, 2022-12-29 to 2026-05-17. Limitations: Settings were selected on tuning data; all variants are shown as retrospective ablations. Coach effects and a historical player-availability layer were not tested, and these samples overlap the other studies. Experiment hierarchy-ablation-v1; [stored report](https://github.com/xucheng2024/football-edge-lab/blob/main/docs/research/hierarchy-ablation.json). ## Native-language league hubs (Español, Deutsch, Italiano, Français) - [Deutsch (de): Bundesliga Prognose 2026-27: Bayern Munich (90.1% Titelchance) & Tabellenrechner](https://footballedgelab.com/de/bundesliga): In 20.000 Simulationen der Bundesliga-Saison 2026-27 hat Bayern Munich die höchste Meisterwahrscheinlichkeit (90.1%), vor Borussia Dortmund (5.3%). Über die nächsten sechs terminierten Ligaspiele erreicht Bayern Munich mit 14.10 von 18 erwarteten Punkten den höchsten Modellwert. - [Español (es): Predicciones LaLiga 2026-27: Barcelona (87.0% título) y Tabla Simulada](https://footballedgelab.com/es/la-liga): En 20.000 simulaciones de LaLiga 2026-27, Barcelona tiene la mayor probabilidad de ganar el título (87.0%), seguido de Real Madrid (10.0%). En las próximas seis jornadas programadas, Barcelona suma la mayor expectativa del modelo con 12.78 puntos esperados de 18. - [Français (fr): Pronostics Ligue 1 2026-27 : Paris Saint-Germain (75.5% titre) et Classement Simulé](https://footballedgelab.com/fr/ligue-1): Sur 20 000 simulations de la saison 2026-27 de Ligue 1, Paris Saint-Germain affiche la plus forte probabilité de titre (75.5%), devant Monaco (6.4%). Sur les six prochains matchs programmés, Paris Saint-Germain obtient le total le plus élevé du modèle avec 13.05 points attendus sur 18. - [Italiano (it): Pronostici Serie A 2026-27: Inter Milan (73.4% Scudetto) e Classifica Simulata](https://footballedgelab.com/it/serie-a): Su 20.000 simulazioni della Serie A 2026-27, Inter Milan ha la probabilità più alta di vincere lo Scudetto (73.4%), davanti a Roma (14.8%). Nelle prossime sei gare in calendario, Inter Milan registra la proiezione più alta del modello con 12.28 punti attesi su 18. ## Premier League 2026-27 predicted final table - [Premier League predicted table](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/predicted-table): 20,000 simulations; 70 played, 310 remaining. Title: Manchester City 60.8%, Arsenal 34.4%, Brighton 2.1%. Bottom 3: Ipswich 65.2%, Coventry City 63.5%, Sunderland 37.4%. [Season simulator](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/season-simulator). - Published 2026-10-20T00:33:11.307358+00:00; model dc-v4-b03542722547; results through 2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00. Bottom 3 is a finishing-position probability. Top 4 does not guarantee qualification or promotion. - [Premier League fixture outlook](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/fixture-outlook): model expectation for each club's next six scheduled fixtures. CSV: [fixture-outlook.csv](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/fixture-outlook.csv); [predicted-table.csv](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/predicted-table.csv). ## Upcoming match predictions - [Premier League predictions hub](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/predictions): every upcoming match grouped by gameweek - [Gameweek 6 2026-27](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/gameweek/2026-27/6): 10 gameweek 6 matches with a published pre-match prediction are complete. The model's most likely result happened in 4 of them. The market's favourite result happened in 4 of 10; on those matches the model's log loss was 1.084 against 1.037 for the market (lower is better). The least expected result was Coventry City 4–1 Newcastle, which the model gave 16.2%. - [Gameweek 7 2026-27](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/gameweek/2026-27/7): 10 gameweek 7 matches with a published pre-match prediction are complete. The model's most likely result happened in 7 of them. The least expected result was Leeds United 1–1 Manchester United, which the model gave 27.0%. - [Gameweek 8 2026-27](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/gameweek/2026-27/8): Gameweek 8 of the 2026-27 Premier League runs from 23 Oct 2026 to 25 Oct 2026 with 10 published matches. The model's strongest favourite is Arsenal at 63.0% against Everton. - [Gameweek 9 2026-27](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/gameweek/2026-27/9): Gameweek 9 of the 2026-27 Premier League runs from 31 Oct 2026 to 2 Nov 2026 with 10 published matches. The model's strongest favourite is Manchester City at 58.8% against Brighton. - [Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/451/ipswich-vs-nott-m-forest): Premier League; kickoff 2026-10-23T19:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:11.307Z; model version dc-v4-b03542722547; home / draw / away: 27.7% / 25.7% / 46.6%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.24 / 1.67; over 2.5 goals: 55.6%; both teams to score: 58.5%; 90 minutes only. - [Aston Villa vs Manchester City](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/452/aston-villa-vs-manchester-city): Premier League; kickoff 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:11.307Z; model version dc-v4-b03542722547; home / draw / away: 23.7% / 24.6% / 51.6%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.16 / 1.81; over 2.5 goals: 57.0%; both teams to score: 58.3%; 90 minutes only. - [Arsenal vs Everton](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/453/arsenal-vs-everton): Premier League; kickoff 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:11.307Z; model version dc-v4-b03542722547; home / draw / away: 63.0% / 24.1% / 12.9%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.76 / 0.67; over 2.5 goals: 43.7%; both teams to score: 41.0%; 90 minutes only. - [Coventry City vs Fulham](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/454/coventry-city-vs-fulham): Premier League; kickoff 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:11.307Z; model version dc-v4-b03542722547; home / draw / away: 29.6% / 28.1% / 42.2%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.15 / 1.41; over 2.5 goals: 47.1%; both teams to score: 52.5%; 90 minutes only. - [Chelsea vs Tottenham](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/455/chelsea-vs-tottenham-hotspur): Premier League; kickoff 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:11.307Z; model version dc-v4-b03542722547; home / draw / away: 53.7% / 23.1% / 23.2%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.99 / 1.26; over 2.5 goals: 63.0%; both teams to score: 62.5%; 90 minutes only. - [Liverpool vs Brighton](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/456/liverpool-vs-brighton-and-hove-albion): Premier League; kickoff 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:11.307Z; model version dc-v4-b03542722547; home / draw / away: 47.4% / 24.5% / 28.0%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.80 / 1.35; over 2.5 goals: 60.8%; both teams to score: 62.5%; 90 minutes only. - [Crystal Palace vs Newcastle](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/457/crystal-palace-vs-newcastle-united): Premier League; kickoff 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:11.307Z; model version dc-v4-b03542722547; home / draw / away: 35.1% / 26.2% / 38.8%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.43 / 1.51; over 2.5 goals: 56.4%; both teams to score: 60.1%; 90 minutes only. - [Manchester United vs Bournemouth](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/458/manchester-united-vs-bournemouth): Premier League; kickoff 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:11.307Z; model version dc-v4-b03542722547; home / draw / away: 47.2% / 25.3% / 27.5%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.71 / 1.26; over 2.5 goals: 57.1%; both teams to score: 59.5%; 90 minutes only. - [Hull City vs Brentford](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/459/hull-city-vs-brentford): Premier League; kickoff 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:11.307Z; model version dc-v4-b03542722547; home / draw / away: 33.6% / 28.4% / 38.0%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.23 / 1.32; over 2.5 goals: 47.0%; both teams to score: 52.8%; 90 minutes only. - [Sunderland vs Leeds United](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/460/sunderland-vs-leeds-united): Premier League; kickoff 2026-10-25T16:30:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:11.307Z; model version dc-v4-b03542722547; home / draw / away: 35.6% / 29.5% / 34.9%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.21 / 1.19; over 2.5 goals: 43.1%; both teams to score: 49.9%; 90 minutes only. - [Chelsea vs Manchester United](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/461/chelsea-vs-manchester-united): Premier League; kickoff 2026-10-31T12:30:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:11.307Z; model version dc-v4-b03542722547; home / draw / away: 45.3% / 24.8% / 29.8%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.75 / 1.39; over 2.5 goals: 60.6%; both teams to score: 62.6%; 90 minutes only. - [Manchester City vs Brighton](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/462/manchester-city-vs-brighton-and-hove-albion): Premier League; kickoff 2026-10-31T15:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:11.307Z; model version dc-v4-b03542722547; home / draw / away: 58.8% / 22.2% / 18.9%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 2.06 / 1.10; over 2.5 goals: 61.2%; both teams to score: 58.9%; 90 minutes only. - [Bournemouth vs Leeds United](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/463/bournemouth-vs-leeds-united): Premier League; kickoff 2026-10-31T15:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:11.307Z; model version dc-v4-b03542722547; home / draw / away: 43.7% / 26.8% / 29.5%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.54 / 1.23; over 2.5 goals: 52.3%; both teams to score: 56.4%; 90 minutes only. - [Coventry City vs Sunderland](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/464/coventry-city-vs-sunderland): Premier League; kickoff 2026-10-31T15:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:11.307Z; model version dc-v4-b03542722547; home / draw / away: 32.6% / 29.2% / 38.2%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.16 / 1.28; over 2.5 goals: 43.9%; both teams to score: 50.4%; 90 minutes only. - [Hull City vs Ipswich](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/465/hull-city-vs-ipswich): Premier League; kickoff 2026-10-31T15:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:11.307Z; model version dc-v4-b03542722547; home / draw / away: 55.0% / 24.6% / 20.4%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.80 / 1.02; over 2.5 goals: 53.7%; both teams to score: 54.3%; 90 minutes only. - [Brentford vs Nottingham Forest](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/466/brentford-vs-nott-m-forest): Premier League; kickoff 2026-10-31T15:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:11.307Z; model version dc-v4-b03542722547; home / draw / away: 47.5% / 26.4% / 26.1%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.61 / 1.14; over 2.5 goals: 51.8%; both teams to score: 55.2%; 90 minutes only. - [Tottenham vs Crystal Palace](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/467/tottenham-hotspur-vs-crystal-palace): Premier League; kickoff 2026-10-31T17:30:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:11.307Z; model version dc-v4-b03542722547; home / draw / away: 45.1% / 26.1% / 28.8%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.61 / 1.25; over 2.5 goals: 54.5%; both teams to score: 57.9%; 90 minutes only. - [Aston Villa vs Fulham](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/468/aston-villa-vs-fulham): Premier League; kickoff 2026-10-31T20:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:11.307Z; model version dc-v4-b03542722547; home / draw / away: 47.4% / 26.8% / 25.8%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.58 / 1.10; over 2.5 goals: 50.1%; both teams to score: 53.8%; 90 minutes only. - [Liverpool vs Arsenal](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/469/liverpool-vs-arsenal): Premier League; kickoff 2026-11-01T16:30:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:11.307Z; model version dc-v4-b03542722547; home / draw / away: 31.1% / 27.5% / 41.3%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.23 / 1.45; over 2.5 goals: 50.0%; both teams to score: 55.0%; 90 minutes only. - [Newcastle vs Everton](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/470/newcastle-united-vs-everton): Premier League; kickoff 2026-11-02T20:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:11.307Z; model version dc-v4-b03542722547; home / draw / away: 46.2% / 27.1% / 26.6%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.54 / 1.11; over 2.5 goals: 49.4%; both teams to score: 53.5%; 90 minutes only. - [Premier League immutable pre-match prediction record](https://footballedgelab.com/model-performance): 11 of 20 settled pre-match forecasts matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome (20 total recorded before kickoff). - [Tottenham vs Coventry City](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/450/tottenham-hotspur-vs-coventry-city): pre-match 1X2 44.3% / 27.5% / 28.2% (recorded 2026-10-18T17:09:25.029Z) → final score 3–1 (top outcome hit). - [Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/449/nott-m-forest-vs-arsenal): pre-match 1X2 19.8% / 28.9% / 51.3% (recorded 2026-10-17T15:18:49.054Z) → final score 0–1 (top outcome hit). - [Bournemouth vs Sunderland](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/446/bournemouth-vs-sunderland): pre-match 1X2 49.5% / 26.7% / 23.8% (recorded 2026-10-17T10:54:42.345Z) → final score 2–0 (top outcome hit). - [Leeds United vs Manchester United](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/447/leeds-united-vs-manchester-united): pre-match 1X2 40.4% / 27.3% / 32.3% (recorded 2026-10-17T10:54:42.345Z) → final score 1–1 (upset / other outcome). - [Brighton vs Crystal Palace](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/448/brighton-and-hove-albion-vs-crystal-palace): pre-match 1X2 60.4% / 21.5% / 18.1% (recorded 2026-10-17T10:54:42.345Z) → final score 5–0 (top outcome hit). - [Newcastle vs Aston Villa](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/445/newcastle-united-vs-aston-villa): pre-match 1X2 47.2% / 24.4% / 28.4% (recorded 2026-10-16T14:14:19.636Z) → final score 0–1 (upset / other outcome). - [Fulham vs Hull City](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/442/fulham-vs-hull-city): pre-match 1X2 38.8% / 29.1% / 32.1% (recorded 2026-10-16T11:46:43.276Z) → final score 1–0 (top outcome hit). - [Manchester City vs Ipswich](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/443/manchester-city-vs-ipswich): pre-match 1X2 84.7% / 10.6% / 4.8% (recorded 2026-10-16T11:46:43.276Z) → final score 3–2 (top outcome hit). ## Reference data - [Premier League tables since 2005-06](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/tables): final standings and winners by season - [Premier League table 2026-27](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/tables/2026-27): led by Manchester City on 21 points - [Premier League table 2025-26](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/tables/2025-26): won by Arsenal on 85 points - [Premier League table 2024-25](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/tables/2024-25): won by Liverpool on 84 points - [Premier League table 2023-24](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/tables/2023-24): won by Manchester City on 91 points - [Premier League table 2022-23](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/tables/2022-23): won by Manchester City on 89 points - [Premier League table 2021-22](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/tables/2021-22): won by Manchester City on 93 points - [Premier League table 2020-21](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/tables/2020-21): won by Manchester City on 86 points - [Premier League table 2019-20](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/tables/2019-20): won by Liverpool on 99 points - [Premier League table 2018-19](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/tables/2018-19): won by Manchester City on 98 points - [Premier League table 2017-18](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/tables/2017-18): won by Manchester City on 100 points - [Premier League table 2016-17](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/tables/2016-17): won by Chelsea on 93 points - [Premier League table 2015-16](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/tables/2015-16): won by Leicester on 81 points - [Premier League table 2014-15](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/tables/2014-15): won by Chelsea on 87 points - [Premier League table 2013-14](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/tables/2013-14): won by Manchester City on 86 points - [Premier League table 2012-13](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/tables/2012-13): won by Manchester United on 89 points - [Premier League table 2011-12](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/tables/2011-12): won by Manchester City on 89 points - [Premier League table 2010-11](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/tables/2010-11): won by Manchester United on 80 points - [Premier League table 2009-10](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/tables/2009-10): won by Chelsea on 86 points - [Premier League table 2008-09](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/tables/2008-09): won by Manchester United on 90 points - [Premier League table 2007-08](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/tables/2007-08): won by Manchester United on 87 points - [Premier League table 2006-07](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/tables/2006-07): won by Manchester United on 89 points - [Premier League table 2005-06](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/tables/2005-06): won by Chelsea on 91 points - [Premier League season archive](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/seasons): every completed result since 2005-06, with each season's goals per match and home win share; clubs listed alphabetically, not ranked - [Premier League 2026-27 results](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/seasons/2026-27): 70 matches, 2.90 goals per match, 40.0% home wins - [Premier League 2025-26 results](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/seasons/2025-26): 380 matches, 2.75 goals per match, 42.6% home wins - [Premier League 2024-25 results](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/seasons/2024-25): 380 matches, 2.93 goals per match, 40.8% home wins - [Premier League 2023-24 results](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/seasons/2023-24): 380 matches, 3.28 goals per match, 46.1% home wins - [Premier League 2022-23 results](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/seasons/2022-23): 380 matches, 2.85 goals per match, 48.4% home wins - [Premier League 2021-22 results](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/seasons/2021-22): 380 matches, 2.82 goals per match, 42.9% home wins - [Premier League 2020-21 results](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/seasons/2020-21): 380 matches, 2.69 goals per match, 37.9% home wins - [Premier League 2019-20 results](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/seasons/2019-20): 380 matches, 2.72 goals per match, 45.3% home wins - [Premier League 2018-19 results](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/seasons/2018-19): 380 matches, 2.82 goals per match, 47.6% home wins - [Premier League 2017-18 results](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/seasons/2017-18): 380 matches, 2.68 goals per match, 45.5% home wins - [Premier League 2016-17 results](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/seasons/2016-17): 380 matches, 2.80 goals per match, 49.2% home wins - [Premier League 2015-16 results](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/seasons/2015-16): 380 matches, 2.70 goals per match, 41.3% home wins - [Premier League 2014-15 results](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/seasons/2014-15): 380 matches, 2.57 goals per match, 45.3% home wins - [Premier League 2013-14 results](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/seasons/2013-14): 380 matches, 2.77 goals per match, 47.1% home wins - [Premier League 2012-13 results](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/seasons/2012-13): 380 matches, 2.80 goals per match, 43.7% home wins - [Premier League 2011-12 results](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/seasons/2011-12): 380 matches, 2.81 goals per match, 45.0% home wins - [Premier League 2010-11 results](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/seasons/2010-11): 380 matches, 2.80 goals per match, 47.1% home wins - [Premier League 2009-10 results](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/seasons/2009-10): 380 matches, 2.77 goals per match, 50.8% home wins - [Premier League 2008-09 results](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/seasons/2008-09): 380 matches, 2.48 goals per match, 45.5% home wins - [Premier League 2007-08 results](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/seasons/2007-08): 380 matches, 2.64 goals per match, 46.3% home wins - [Premier League 2006-07 results](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/seasons/2006-07): 380 matches, 2.45 goals per match, 47.9% home wins - [Premier League 2005-06 results](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/seasons/2005-06): 380 matches, 2.48 goals per match, 50.5% home wins - [Head-to-head records](https://footballedgelab.com/premier-league/head-to-head): 142 pairs of current clubs since 2005-06 ## Player career timelines - [Player career timelines](https://footballedgelab.com/players): selected club moves, honours and milestones with official sources. These are not live statistics or complete match logs. - [Lionel Messi career timeline](https://footballedgelab.com/players/lionel-messi): From a teenage Barcelona debut to Argentina’s World Cup triumph and a new chapter with Inter Miami. Content updated 2026-10-15. - [Cristiano Ronaldo career timeline](https://footballedgelab.com/players/cristiano-ronaldo): Sporting to Manchester, Madrid, Turin and Riyadh, alongside landmark achievements for Portugal. Content updated 2026-10-15. - [Mohamed Salah career timeline](https://footballedgelab.com/players/mohamed-salah): From Basel and a first spell in England to Italy, Liverpool’s major trophies and a 2026 Anfield farewell. Content updated 2026-10-15. - [Erling Haaland career timeline](https://footballedgelab.com/players/erling-haaland): From Molde and Salzburg to Dortmund, Manchester City’s treble and a record-setting Premier League debut season. Content updated 2026-10-15. - [Kylian Mbappé career timeline](https://footballedgelab.com/players/kylian-mbappe): Monaco’s breakthrough, Paris Saint-Germain, World Cup finals and a new scoring chapter at Real Madrid. Content updated 2026-10-15. ## Guides - [How to turn football odds into probabilities](https://footballedgelab.com/guides/odds-to-probability): Convert decimal odds into implied probabilities, measure the bookmaker margin and remove it, with a worked example from an upcoming Premier League match. - [The Dixon–Coles model, explained](https://footballedgelab.com/guides/dixon-coles-model): How the Dixon–Coles model turns attack and defence ratings into expected goals, scorelines and match probabilities, and how our version is set up. - [Over/under 2.5 goals and both teams to score, explained](https://footballedgelab.com/guides/over-under-and-btts): What over 2.5 goals and both teams to score mean, how often they happen in the Premier League, and how a score model estimates them for a match. - [Are bookmaker odds accurate?](https://footballedgelab.com/guides/are-bookmaker-odds-accurate): We compared de-vigged closing odds with a statistical model on held-out Premier League matches using log loss, Brier score and calibration. - [Expected goals from a score model, and how it differs from xG](https://footballedgelab.com/guides/expected-goals-model): What the expected goals on our match pages mean, how they come from team ratings rather than shots, and how to read them alongside shot-based xG. - [How log loss and Brier score measure football predictions](https://footballedgelab.com/guides/log-loss-and-brier-score): Why accuracy percentage alone is misleading for football forecasts, how log loss and Brier score reward honest probabilities, and how our model compares with closing odds. - [Most common football scorelines and how models price them](https://footballedgelab.com/guides/most-common-football-scores): Why 1–1, 1–0, 2–1 and 0–0 are the most frequent football results, why even a heavy favourite's top scoreline rarely exceeds 15%, and how score grids work. - [How home advantage and scoring compare across six leagues](https://footballedgelab.com/guides/home-advantage-by-league): Compare home win rates, draws, goals per match and over 2.5 rates across the Premier League, Championship, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1. ## Research - [Cross-league research & CSV download](https://footballedgelab.com/research): compare home advantage, goals per match, over 2.5 and BTTS across six leagues - [Home advantage longitudinal trends](https://footballedgelab.com/research/home-advantage-trends): season-by-season home win rates across six football leagues - [Goals, over 2.5 and BTTS trends](https://footballedgelab.com/research/goals-trends): season-by-season scoring rates across six football leagues - [Club leaderboards](https://footballedgelab.com/research/club-leaderboards): current-season club rankings for over 2.5, BTTS, clean sheets and home and away win rates across six leagues - [Premier League Goals: Over 2.5 and Both Teams to Score 22 Seasons of Data](https://footballedgelab.com/research/premier-league-goals-over-25-btts): Across 8,050 completed matches, the average was 2.74 goals. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 52.3%; both teams scored in 51.4%. - [Does Home Advantage Still Matter in the Premier League? 22 Seasons of Data](https://footballedgelab.com/research/premier-league-home-advantage): Home teams won 45.5% of 8,050 matches. ## Clubs - [Arsenal statistics and results](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/arsenal) - [Aston Villa statistics and results](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/aston-villa) - [Bournemouth statistics and results](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/bournemouth) - [Brentford statistics and results](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/brentford) - [Brighton statistics and results](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/brighton-and-hove-albion) - [Burnley statistics and results](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/burnley) - [Chelsea statistics and results](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/chelsea) - [Coventry City statistics and results](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/coventry-city) - [Crystal Palace statistics and results](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/crystal-palace) - [Everton statistics and results](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/everton) - [Fulham statistics and results](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/fulham) - [Hull City statistics and results](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/hull-city) - [Ipswich statistics and results](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/ipswich) - [Leeds United statistics and results](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/leeds-united) - [Leicester statistics and results](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/leicester-city) - [Liverpool statistics and results](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/liverpool) - [Luton Town statistics and results](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/luton-town) - [Manchester City statistics and results](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/manchester-city) - [Manchester United statistics and results](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/manchester-united) - [Newcastle statistics and results](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/newcastle-united) - [Nottingham Forest statistics and results](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/nott-m-forest) - [Sheffield United statistics and results](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/sheffield-united) - [Southampton statistics and results](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/southampton) - [Sunderland statistics and results](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/sunderland) - [Tottenham statistics and results](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/tottenham-hotspur) - [West Ham statistics and results](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/west-ham-united) - [Wolverhampton statistics and results](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/wolverhampton) ## Team news - [Arsenal injuries and suspensions](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/arsenal/injuries): Christos Tzolis, Piero Hincapié, William Saliba - [Aston Villa injuries and suspensions](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/aston-villa/injuries): Ian Maatsen, Matteo Ruggeri, Amadou Onana, George Hemmings, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Johan Manzambi - [Bournemouth injuries and suspensions](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/bournemouth/injuries): Alex Scott, Julián Araujo Zúñiga, Junior Kroupi, Veljko Milosavljevic - [Brentford injuries and suspensions](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/brentford/injuries): Vitaly Janelt, Yehor Yarmoliuk, Josh Dasilva, Kaye Furo, Antoni Milambo, Jannik Schuster - [Brighton injuries and suspensions](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/brighton-and-hove-albion/injuries): Mats Wieffer, Zadok Yohanna, Femi Azeez, Evan Ferguson, Yankuba Minteh, Mitoma Kaoru, Stefanos Tzimas, Pascal Struijk - [Chelsea injuries and suspensions](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/chelsea/injuries): Emiliano Martínez Romero, Reece James, Emmanuel Emegha, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens, Pep Chavarría, Malo Gusto - [Coventry City injuries and suspensions](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/coventry-city/injuries): Aurèle Amenda, Josh Eccles, Luke Woolfenden, Haji Wright - [Crystal Palace injuries and suspensions](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/crystal-palace/injuries): Takehiro Tomiyasu, Chadi Riad Dnanou, Ben Chilwell, Dean Henderson - [Everton injuries and suspensions](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/everton/injuries): none listed - [Fulham injuries and suspensions](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/fulham/injuries): Ryan Sessegnon, Hugo Larsson - [Hull City injuries and suspensions](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/hull-city/injuries): Nobel Mendy, Lucas Gourna-Douath, Mohamed-Ali Cho, Matt Targett, Ilyas Ansah, Jack Butland, Darko Gyabi, Charlie Hughes, Eliot Matazo, Robinio Vaz - [Ipswich injuries and suspensions](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/ipswich/injuries): Saša Lukić - [Leeds United injuries and suspensions](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/leeds-united/injuries): Joe Rodon, Mateo Joseph Fernández-Regatillo, Daniel James - [Liverpool injuries and suspensions](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/liverpool/injuries): Dominik Szoboszlai, Jeremie Frimpong, Conor Bradley, Hugo Ekitiké, Vitezslav Jaros, Giovanni Leoni - [Manchester City injuries and suspensions](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/manchester-city/injuries): Antoine Semenyo, Erling Haaland, Matheus Nunes, Nico O'Reilly, Mateo Kovačić - [Manchester United injuries and suspensions](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/manchester-united/injuries): Patrick Dorgu, Benjamin Sesko, Tom Heaton, Manuel Ugarte Ribeiro, Lisandro Martínez, Kobbie Mainoo, Luke Shaw - [Newcastle injuries and suspensions](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/newcastle-united/injuries): Anthony Elanga, Jacob Ramsey, Tino Livramento, Ewen Jaouen - [Nottingham Forest injuries and suspensions](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/nott-m-forest/injuries): Igor Jesus Maciel da Cruz, Nicolò Savona, Morgan Gibbs-White - [Sunderland injuries and suspensions](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/sunderland/injuries): Daniel Ballard, Kevin Danso, Romaine Mundle, Thomas Meunier, Brian Brobbey, Wilson Isidor - [Tottenham injuries and suspensions](https://footballedgelab.com/teams/tottenham-hotspur/injuries): Rodrigo Bentancur, Sávio Moreira de Oliveira, Pedro Porro Sauceda, Lucas Bergvall, Mykhailo Mudryk, Wilson Odobert, Xavi Simons, Omar Marmoush, Andrew Robertson, Destiny Udogie, Tosin Adarabioyo ## Bundesliga - [Deutsch (de): Bundesliga Prognose 2026-27: Bayern Munich (90.1% Titelchance) & Tabellenrechner](https://footballedgelab.com/de/bundesliga): In 20.000 Simulationen der Bundesliga-Saison 2026-27 hat Bayern Munich die höchste Meisterwahrscheinlichkeit (90.1%), vor Borussia Dortmund (5.3%). Über die nächsten sechs terminierten Ligaspiele erreicht Bayern Munich mit 14.10 von 18 erwarteten Punkten den höchsten Modellwert. ## Bundesliga 2026-27 predicted final table - [Bundesliga predicted table](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/season-simulator): 20,000 simulations; 54 played, 252 remaining. Title: Bayern Munich 90.1%, Borussia Dortmund 5.3%, Bayer Leverkusen 3.5%. Bottom 2: Borussia Monchengladbach 46.6%, Schalke 32.9%, Union Berlin 29.2%. [Season simulator](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/season-simulator). - Published 2026-10-20T00:33:55.102402+00:00; model dc-v4-e4a2cd67118c; results through 2026-10-18T15:30:00+00:00. Bottom 2 is a finishing-position probability; third-bottom relegation playoff outcomes are excluded. Top 4 does not guarantee qualification or promotion. - [Bundesliga fixture outlook](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/fixture-outlook): model expectation for each club's next six scheduled fixtures. CSV: [fixture-outlook.csv](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/fixture-outlook.csv); [predicted-table.csv](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/predicted-table.csv). - [Bundesliga overview](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga): independent league model; completed score history since 2005-06; updated 2026-10-20T00:33:55.102402+00:00 - Historical source: football-data.co.uk (https://www.football-data.co.uk/germanym.php); exact kickoff times from 2019-20, earlier seasons read as a 15:00 local kickoff. - [Bundesliga predictions](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/predictions): win, draw, away and scoreline probabilities; no injury or confirmed-lineup adjustment - [Bundesliga tables](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/tables): regular-season results with official points adjustments; playoffs excluded - [Bundesliga season archive](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/seasons): every completed result since 2005-06 with each season's scoring and home-advantage rates; clubs listed alphabetically, not ranked - [Bundesliga model record](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/model-performance): independent validation and immutable forecasts; Premier League accuracy does not apply - [Bundesliga immutable pre-match prediction record](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/model-performance): 5 of 9 settled pre-match forecasts matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome (9 total recorded before kickoff). - [Borussia Monchengladbach vs Hoffenheim](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/6368/borussia-monchengladbach-vs-hoffenheim): pre-match 1X2 40.7% / 23.5% / 35.8% (recorded 2026-10-17T15:20:35.770Z) → final score 1–2 (upset / other outcome). - [Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/6367/bayer-leverkusen-vs-freiburg): pre-match 1X2 60.6% / 21.0% / 18.5% (recorded 2026-10-17T13:05:21.823Z) → final score 2–1 (top outcome hit). - [Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/6366/bayern-munich-vs-rb-leipzig): pre-match 1X2 69.4% / 16.6% / 14.0% (recorded 2026-10-16T14:15:19.334Z) → final score 6–1 (top outcome hit). - [Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/6361/union-berlin-vs-borussia-dortmund): pre-match 1X2 19.2% / 23.6% / 57.1% (recorded 2026-10-16T11:47:31.688Z) → final score 0–0 (upset / other outcome). - [Hamburg vs Stuttgart](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/6362/hamburg-vs-stuttgart): pre-match 1X2 25.1% / 24.2% / 50.7% (recorded 2026-10-16T11:47:31.688Z) → final score 1–0 (upset / other outcome). - [Werder Bremen vs Paderborn](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/6363/werder-bremen-vs-paderborn): pre-match 1X2 44.9% / 28.7% / 26.4% (recorded 2026-10-16T11:47:31.688Z) → final score 2–2 (upset / other outcome). - [Elversberg vs Augsburg](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/6364/elversberg-vs-augsburg): pre-match 1X2 50.0% / 25.0% / 25.0% (recorded 2026-10-16T11:47:31.688Z) → final score 4–3 (top outcome hit). - [Schalke vs Mainz](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/6365/schalke-vs-mainz): pre-match 1X2 34.5% / 28.6% / 36.9% (recorded 2026-10-16T11:47:31.688Z) → final score 0–1 (top outcome hit). - [Stuttgart vs Borussia Monchengladbach](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/6369/stuttgart-vs-borussia-monchengladbach): Bundesliga; kickoff 2026-10-23T18:30:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:55.102Z; model version dc-v4-e4a2cd67118c; home / draw / away: 63.0% / 19.9% / 17.1%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 2.34 / 1.16; over 2.5 goals: 68.0%; both teams to score: 62.7%; 90 minutes only. - [Mainz vs Werder Bremen](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/6370/mainz-vs-werder-bremen): Bundesliga; kickoff 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:55.102Z; model version dc-v4-e4a2cd67118c; home / draw / away: 51.4% / 24.8% / 23.9%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.78 / 1.15; over 2.5 goals: 56.2%; both teams to score: 57.6%; 90 minutes only. - [FC Cologne vs Schalke](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/6371/fc-cologne-vs-schalke): Bundesliga; kickoff 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:55.102Z; model version dc-v4-e4a2cd67118c; home / draw / away: 43.9% / 28.2% / 27.9%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.42 / 1.08; over 2.5 goals: 45.6%; both teams to score: 50.9%; 90 minutes only. - [RB Leipzig vs Elversberg](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/6372/rb-leipzig-vs-elversberg): Bundesliga; kickoff 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:55.102Z; model version dc-v4-e4a2cd67118c; home / draw / away: 57.1% / 20.7% / 22.2%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 2.30 / 1.41; over 2.5 goals: 71.7%; both teams to score: 68.5%; 90 minutes only. - [Paderborn vs Hamburg](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/6373/paderborn-vs-hamburg): Bundesliga; kickoff 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:55.102Z; model version dc-v4-e4a2cd67118c; home / draw / away: 44.2% / 28.3% / 27.5%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.42 / 1.06; over 2.5 goals: 45.1%; both teams to score: 50.5%; 90 minutes only. - [Augsburg vs Union Berlin](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/6374/augsburg-vs-union-berlin): Bundesliga; kickoff 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:55.102Z; model version dc-v4-e4a2cd67118c; home / draw / away: 49.4% / 25.8% / 24.8%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.67 / 1.12; over 2.5 goals: 52.9%; both teams to score: 55.5%; 90 minutes only. - [Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/6375/borussia-dortmund-vs-eintracht-frankfurt): Bundesliga; kickoff 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:55.102Z; model version dc-v4-e4a2cd67118c; home / draw / away: 65.6% / 18.9% / 15.5%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 2.45 / 1.14; over 2.5 goals: 69.5%; both teams to score: 62.6%; 90 minutes only. - [Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/6376/hoffenheim-vs-bayer-leverkusen): Bundesliga; kickoff 2026-10-25T14:30:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:55.102Z; model version dc-v4-e4a2cd67118c; home / draw / away: 29.6% / 22.4% / 48.0%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.59 / 2.06; over 2.5 goals: 70.6%; both teams to score: 70.1%; 90 minutes only. - [Freiburg vs Bayern Munich](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/6377/freiburg-vs-bayern-munich): Bundesliga; kickoff 2026-10-25T16:30:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:55.102Z; model version dc-v4-e4a2cd67118c; home / draw / away: 16.4% / 18.0% / 65.6%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.29 / 2.63; over 2.5 goals: 75.0%; both teams to score: 67.8%; 90 minutes only. - [Elversberg vs Mainz](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/6378/elversberg-vs-mainz): Bundesliga; kickoff 2026-10-30T19:30:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:55.102Z; model version dc-v4-e4a2cd67118c; home / draw / away: 47.5% / 23.7% / 28.8%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.88 / 1.44; over 2.5 goals: 64.4%; both teams to score: 65.3%; 90 minutes only. - [Borussia Monchengladbach vs Paderborn](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/6379/borussia-monchengladbach-vs-paderborn): Bundesliga; kickoff 2026-10-31T14:30:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:55.102Z; model version dc-v4-e4a2cd67118c; home / draw / away: 44.9% / 26.8% / 28.4%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.55 / 1.18; over 2.5 goals: 51.4%; both teams to score: 55.4%; 90 minutes only. - [Schalke vs RB Leipzig](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/6380/schalke-vs-rb-leipzig): Bundesliga; kickoff 2026-10-31T14:30:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:55.102Z; model version dc-v4-e4a2cd67118c; home / draw / away: 24.5% / 26.2% / 49.3%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.08 / 1.63; over 2.5 goals: 50.9%; both teams to score: 53.9%; 90 minutes only. - [Heidenheim Bundesliga results](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/teams/heidenheim) - [FC Cologne Bundesliga results](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/teams/fc-cologne) - [Union Berlin Bundesliga results](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/teams/union-berlin) - [Mainz Bundesliga results](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/teams/mainz) - [Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga results](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/teams/bayer-leverkusen) - [Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga results](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/teams/borussia-dortmund) - [Borussia Monchengladbach Bundesliga results](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/teams/borussia-monchengladbach) - [Eintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga results](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/teams/eintracht-frankfurt) - [Augsburg Bundesliga results](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/teams/augsburg) - [Bayern Munich Bundesliga results](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/teams/bayern-munich) - [Schalke Bundesliga results](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/teams/schalke) - [St Pauli Bundesliga results](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/teams/st-pauli) - [Hamburg Bundesliga results](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/teams/hamburg) - [RB Leipzig Bundesliga results](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/teams/rb-leipzig) - [Freiburg Bundesliga results](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/teams/freiburg) - [Paderborn Bundesliga results](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/teams/paderborn) - [Elversberg Bundesliga results](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/teams/elversberg) - [Werder Bremen Bundesliga results](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/teams/werder-bremen) - [Hoffenheim Bundesliga results](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/teams/hoffenheim) - [Stuttgart Bundesliga results](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/teams/stuttgart) - [Wolfsburg Bundesliga results](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/teams/wolfsburg) - [Does Home Advantage Still Matter in the Bundesliga? 22 Seasons of Data](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/research/home-advantage): Home teams won 44.7% of 6,480 matches. - [Bundesliga Goals: Over 2.5 and Both Teams to Score 22 Seasons of Data](https://footballedgelab.com/bundesliga/research/goals-over-25-btts): Across 6,480 completed matches, the average was 2.98 goals. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 57.3%; both teams scored in 56.9%. ## Championship ## Championship 2026-27 predicted final table - [Championship predicted table](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/season-simulator): 20,000 simulations; 131 played, 421 remaining. Title: West Ham 71.7%, Southampton 12.6%, Wolverhampton 5.8%. Bottom 3: Preston North End 77.4%, Lincoln City 46.2%, Derby County 35.1%. [Season simulator](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/season-simulator). - Published 2026-10-20T00:33:23.025623+00:00; model dc-v4-e1ba798c6da3; results through 2026-10-17T14:00:00+00:00. Bottom 3 is a finishing-position probability. Top 4 does not guarantee qualification or promotion. - [Championship fixture outlook](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/fixture-outlook): model expectation for each club's next six scheduled fixtures. CSV: [fixture-outlook.csv](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/fixture-outlook.csv); [predicted-table.csv](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/predicted-table.csv). - [Championship overview](https://footballedgelab.com/championship): independent league model; completed score history since 2005-06; updated 2026-10-20T00:33:23.025623+00:00 - Historical source: football-data.co.uk (https://www.football-data.co.uk/englandm.php); exact kickoff times from 2019-20, earlier seasons read as a 15:00 local kickoff. - [Championship predictions](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/predictions): win, draw, away and scoreline probabilities; no injury or confirmed-lineup adjustment - [Championship tables](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/tables): regular-season results with official points adjustments; playoffs excluded - [Championship season archive](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/seasons): every completed result since 2005-06 with each season's scoring and home-advantage rates; clubs listed alphabetically, not ranked - [Championship model record](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/model-performance): independent validation and immutable forecasts; Premier League accuracy does not apply - [Championship immutable pre-match prediction record](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/model-performance): 5 of 12 settled pre-match forecasts matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome (13 total recorded before kickoff). - [Norwich City vs Portsmouth](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/3716/norwich-city-vs-portsmouth): pre-match 1X2 52.9% / 23.6% / 23.5% (recorded 2026-10-16T11:46:57.048Z) → final score 0–1 (upset / other outcome). - [Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/3717/southampton-vs-bolton-wanderers): pre-match 1X2 65.0% / 18.6% / 16.4% (recorded 2026-10-16T11:46:57.048Z) → final score 0–0 (upset / other outcome). - [Bristol City vs Sheffield United](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/3718/bristol-city-vs-sheffield-united): pre-match 1X2 37.8% / 27.3% / 35.0% (recorded 2026-10-16T11:46:57.048Z) → final score 0–1 (upset / other outcome). - [Birmingham City vs Queens Park Rangers](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/3719/birmingham-city-vs-queens-park-rangers): pre-match 1X2 46.5% / 26.6% / 27.0% (recorded 2026-10-16T11:46:57.048Z) → final score 3–0 (top outcome hit). - [Derby County vs Stoke City](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/3720/derby-county-vs-stoke-city): pre-match 1X2 43.4% / 27.5% / 29.1% (recorded 2026-10-16T11:46:57.048Z) → final score 0–1 (upset / other outcome). - [Swansea City vs West Ham](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/3721/swansea-city-vs-west-ham-united): pre-match 1X2 26.9% / 22.5% / 50.7% (recorded 2026-10-16T11:46:57.048Z) → final score 0–1 (top outcome hit). - [West Bromwich Albion vs Blackburn Rovers](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/3722/west-bromwich-albion-vs-blackburn-rovers): pre-match 1X2 44.0% / 29.9% / 26.1% (recorded 2026-10-16T11:46:57.048Z) → final score 3–2 (top outcome hit). - [Wrexham vs Preston North End](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/3723/wrexham-vs-preston-north-end): pre-match 1X2 52.8% / 24.3% / 23.0% (recorded 2026-10-16T11:46:57.048Z) → final score 4–1 (top outcome hit). - [Wolverhampton vs Portsmouth](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/3724/wolverhampton-vs-portsmouth): Championship; kickoff 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:23.025Z; model version dc-v4-e1ba798c6da3; home / draw / away: 57.7% / 22.0% / 20.3%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.97 / 1.09; over 2.5 goals: 58.9%; both teams to score: 57.2%; 90 minutes only. - [Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/3725/bolton-wanderers-vs-middlesbrough): Championship; kickoff 2026-10-23T19:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:23.025Z; model version dc-v4-e1ba798c6da3; home / draw / away: 33.7% / 25.2% / 41.1%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.36 / 1.53; over 2.5 goals: 55.1%; both teams to score: 58.4%; 90 minutes only. - [Sheffield United vs Derby County](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/3726/sheffield-united-vs-derby-county): Championship; kickoff 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:23.025Z; model version dc-v4-e1ba798c6da3; home / draw / away: 50.6% / 25.4% / 24.0%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.60 / 1.02; over 2.5 goals: 48.8%; both teams to score: 51.4%; 90 minutes only. - [Charlton Athletic vs Norwich City](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/3727/charlton-athletic-vs-norwich-city): Championship; kickoff 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:23.025Z; model version dc-v4-e1ba798c6da3; home / draw / away: 32.9% / 27.6% / 39.5%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.17 / 1.30; over 2.5 goals: 44.9%; both teams to score: 50.4%; 90 minutes only. - [Portsmouth vs Millwall](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/3728/portsmouth-vs-millwall): Championship; kickoff 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:23.025Z; model version dc-v4-e1ba798c6da3; home / draw / away: 34.3% / 28.0% / 37.7%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.17 / 1.24; over 2.5 goals: 43.5%; both teams to score: 49.5%; 90 minutes only. - [Cardiff City vs Birmingham City](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/3729/cardiff-city-vs-birmingham-city): Championship; kickoff 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:23.025Z; model version dc-v4-e1ba798c6da3; home / draw / away: 35.3% / 26.7% / 38.0%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.29 / 1.34; over 2.5 goals: 48.9%; both teams to score: 53.7%; 90 minutes only. - [Queens Park Rangers vs Swansea City](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/3730/queens-park-rangers-vs-swansea-city): Championship; kickoff 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:23.025Z; model version dc-v4-e1ba798c6da3; home / draw / away: 37.0% / 27.4% / 35.5%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.27 / 1.24; over 2.5 goals: 45.9%; both teams to score: 51.4%; 90 minutes only. - [Stoke City vs Bristol City](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/3731/stoke-city-vs-bristol-city): Championship; kickoff 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:23.025Z; model version dc-v4-e1ba798c6da3; home / draw / away: 40.4% / 28.2% / 31.4%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.28 / 1.10; over 2.5 goals: 42.5%; both teams to score: 48.4%; 90 minutes only. - [Preston North End vs West Bromwich Albion](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/3732/preston-north-end-vs-west-bromwich-albion): Championship; kickoff 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:23.025Z; model version dc-v4-e1ba798c6da3; home / draw / away: 32.0% / 28.6% / 39.4%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.09 / 1.24; over 2.5 goals: 41.1%; both teams to score: 47.4%; 90 minutes only. - [Lincoln City vs Burnley](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/3733/lincoln-city-vs-burnley): Championship; kickoff 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:23.025Z; model version dc-v4-e1ba798c6da3; home / draw / away: 22.0% / 25.9% / 52.1%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 0.92 / 1.56; over 2.5 goals: 45.0%; both teams to score: 47.7%; 90 minutes only. - [West Ham vs Southampton](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/3734/west-ham-united-vs-southampton): Championship; kickoff 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:23.025Z; model version dc-v4-e1ba798c6da3; home / draw / away: 56.9% / 20.0% / 23.1%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 2.30 / 1.43; over 2.5 goals: 71.9%; both teams to score: 68.5%; 90 minutes only. - [Blackburn Rovers vs Wrexham](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/3735/blackburn-rovers-vs-wrexham): Championship; kickoff 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:23.025Z; model version dc-v4-e1ba798c6da3; home / draw / away: 38.9% / 26.7% / 34.4%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.36 / 1.26; over 2.5 goals: 48.7%; both teams to score: 53.5%; 90 minutes only. - [Birmingham City Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/birmingham-city) - [Blackburn Rovers Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/blackburn-rovers) - [Bolton Wanderers Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/bolton-wanderers) - [Bristol City Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/bristol-city) - [Burnley Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/burnley) - [Cardiff City Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/cardiff-city) - [Charlton Athletic Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/charlton-athletic) - [Coventry City Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/coventry-city) - [Derby County Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/derby-county) - [Hull City Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/hull-city) - [Ipswich Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/ipswich) - [Leicester Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/leicester-city) - [Lincoln City Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/lincoln-city) - [Middlesbrough Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/middlesbrough) - [Millwall Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/millwall) - [Norwich City Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/norwich-city) - [Oxford United Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/oxford-united) - [Portsmouth Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/portsmouth) - [Preston North End Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/preston-north-end) - [Queens Park Rangers Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/queens-park-rangers) - [Sheffield United Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/sheffield-united) - [Sheffield Wednesday Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/sheffield-wednesday) - [Southampton Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/southampton) - [Stoke City Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/stoke-city) - [Swansea City Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/swansea-city) - [Watford Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/watford) - [West Bromwich Albion Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/west-bromwich-albion) - [West Ham Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/west-ham-united) - [Wolverhampton Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/wolverhampton) - [Wrexham Championship results](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/teams/wrexham) - [Does Home Advantage Still Matter in the Championship? 22 Seasons of Data](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/research/home-advantage): Home teams won 43.4% of 11,723 matches. - [Championship Goals: Over 2.5 and Both Teams to Score 22 Seasons of Data](https://footballedgelab.com/championship/research/goals-over-25-btts): Across 11,723 completed matches, the average was 2.56 goals. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 47.8%; both teams scored in 52.2%. ## La Liga - [Español (es): Predicciones LaLiga 2026-27: Barcelona (87.0% título) y Tabla Simulada](https://footballedgelab.com/es/la-liga): En 20.000 simulaciones de LaLiga 2026-27, Barcelona tiene la mayor probabilidad de ganar el título (87.0%), seguido de Real Madrid (10.0%). En las próximas seis jornadas programadas, Barcelona suma la mayor expectativa del modelo con 12.78 puntos esperados de 18. ## La Liga 2026-27 predicted final table - [La Liga predicted table](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/season-simulator): 20,000 simulations; 88 played, 292 remaining. Title: Barcelona 87.0%, Real Madrid 10.0%, Atletico Madrid 2.9%. Bottom 3: Malaga 83.2%, Racing Santander 63.1%, Valencia 28.4%. [Season simulator](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/season-simulator). - Published 2026-10-20T00:33:43.394269+00:00; model dc-v4-f68884fb9d84; results through 2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00. Bottom 3 is a finishing-position probability. Top 4 does not guarantee qualification or promotion. - [La Liga fixture outlook](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/fixture-outlook): model expectation for each club's next six scheduled fixtures. CSV: [fixture-outlook.csv](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/fixture-outlook.csv); [predicted-table.csv](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/predicted-table.csv). - [La Liga overview](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga): independent league model; completed score history since 2005-06; updated 2026-10-20T00:33:43.394269+00:00 - Historical source: football-data.co.uk (https://www.football-data.co.uk/spainm.php); exact kickoff times from 2019-20, earlier seasons read as a 15:00 local kickoff. - [La Liga predictions](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/predictions): win, draw, away and scoreline probabilities; no injury or confirmed-lineup adjustment - [La Liga tables](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/tables): regular-season results with official points adjustments; playoffs excluded - [La Liga season archive](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/seasons): every completed result since 2005-06 with each season's scoring and home-advantage rates; clubs listed alphabetically, not ranked - [La Liga model record](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/model-performance): independent validation and immutable forecasts; Premier League accuracy does not apply - [La Liga immutable pre-match prediction record](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/model-performance): 6 of 10 settled pre-match forecasts matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome (10 total recorded before kickoff). - [Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/5717/getafe-vs-rayo-vallecano): pre-match 1X2 38.1% / 33.8% / 28.1% (recorded 2026-10-18T17:10:33.653Z) → final score 1–1 (upset / other outcome). - [Real Madrid vs Sevilla](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/5716/real-madrid-vs-sevilla): pre-match 1X2 73.6% / 16.4% / 10.0% (recorded 2026-10-17T17:50:40.875Z) → final score 4–1 (top outcome hit). - [Malaga vs Real Sociedad](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/5715/malaga-vs-real-sociedad): pre-match 1X2 31.0% / 28.0% / 41.0% (recorded 2026-10-17T15:20:10.232Z) → final score 2–5 (top outcome hit). - [Celta Vigo vs Alaves](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/5714/celta-vigo-vs-alaves): pre-match 1X2 50.0% / 26.4% / 23.5% (recorded 2026-10-17T13:05:07.543Z) → final score 2–1 (top outcome hit). - [Osasuna vs Racing Santander](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/5713/osasuna-vs-racing-santander): pre-match 1X2 57.9% / 20.0% / 22.1% (recorded 2026-10-17T10:55:12.324Z) → final score 2–0 (top outcome hit). - [Valencia vs Athletic Club](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/5712/valencia-vs-athletic-club): pre-match 1X2 36.9% / 28.9% / 34.2% (recorded 2026-10-16T18:48:57.593Z) → final score 0–0 (upset / other outcome). - [Real Betis vs Barcelona](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/5711/real-betis-vs-barcelona): pre-match 1X2 25.5% / 22.0% / 52.5% (recorded 2026-10-16T14:15:07.180Z) → final score 2–5 (top outcome hit). - [Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/5709/espanyol-vs-atletico-madrid): pre-match 1X2 26.2% / 25.5% / 48.2% (recorded 2026-10-16T11:47:19.725Z) → final score 0–1 (top outcome hit). - [Levante vs Athletic Club](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/5718/levante-vs-athletic-club): La Liga; kickoff 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:43.394Z; model version dc-v4-f68884fb9d84; home / draw / away: 37.7% / 27.1% / 35.2%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.33 / 1.27; over 2.5 goals: 48.3%; both teams to score: 53.4%; 90 minutes only. - [Alaves vs Malaga](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/5719/alaves-vs-malaga): La Liga; kickoff 2026-10-23T19:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:43.394Z; model version dc-v4-f68884fb9d84; home / draw / away: 58.5% / 24.3% / 17.2%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.72 / 0.81; over 2.5 goals: 46.4%; both teams to score: 46.0%; 90 minutes only. - [Rayo Vallecano vs Elche](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/5720/rayo-vallecano-vs-elche): La Liga; kickoff 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:43.394Z; model version dc-v4-f68884fb9d84; home / draw / away: 46.6% / 27.0% / 26.4%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.46 / 1.04; over 2.5 goals: 45.6%; both teams to score: 50.0%; 90 minutes only. - [Racing Santander vs Espanyol](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/5721/racing-santander-vs-espanyol): La Liga; kickoff 2026-10-24T14:15:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:43.394Z; model version dc-v4-f68884fb9d84; home / draw / away: 38.2% / 23.6% / 38.2%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.65 / 1.65; over 2.5 goals: 64.0%; both teams to score: 65.6%; 90 minutes only. - [Valencia vs Villarreal](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/5722/valencia-vs-villarreal): La Liga; kickoff 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:43.394Z; model version dc-v4-f68884fb9d84; home / draw / away: 31.4% / 25.9% / 42.7%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.27 / 1.51; over 2.5 goals: 52.6%; both teams to score: 56.4%; 90 minutes only. - [Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/5723/atletico-madrid-vs-deportivo-la-coruna): La Liga; kickoff 2026-10-24T19:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:43.394Z; model version dc-v4-f68884fb9d84; home / draw / away: 64.9% / 20.5% / 14.6%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 2.09 / 0.88; over 2.5 goals: 57.0%; both teams to score: 51.7%; 90 minutes only. - [Athletic Club vs Getafe](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/5724/athletic-club-vs-getafe): La Liga; kickoff 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:43.394Z; model version dc-v4-f68884fb9d84; home / draw / away: 47.4% / 32.1% / 20.5%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.15 / 0.65; over 2.5 goals: 27.2%; both teams to score: 33.3%; 90 minutes only. - [Celta Vigo vs Real Betis](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/5725/celta-vigo-vs-real-betis): La Liga; kickoff 2026-10-25T15:15:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:43.394Z; model version dc-v4-f68884fb9d84; home / draw / away: 41.8% / 26.2% / 32.0%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.47 / 1.26; over 2.5 goals: 51.5%; both teams to score: 55.6%; 90 minutes only. - [Real Sociedad vs Levante](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/5726/real-sociedad-vs-levante): La Liga; kickoff 2026-10-25T17:30:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:43.394Z; model version dc-v4-f68884fb9d84; home / draw / away: 54.4% / 22.4% / 23.2%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.97 / 1.23; over 2.5 goals: 62.1%; both teams to score: 61.2%; 90 minutes only. - [Barcelona vs Real Madrid](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/5727/barcelona-vs-real-madrid): La Liga; kickoff 2026-10-25T20:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:43.394Z; model version dc-v4-f68884fb9d84; home / draw / away: 55.4% / 21.1% / 23.5%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 2.16 / 1.36; over 2.5 goals: 68.3%; both teams to score: 66.0%; 90 minutes only. - [Sevilla vs Osasuna](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/5728/sevilla-vs-osasuna): La Liga; kickoff 2026-10-26T20:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:43.394Z; model version dc-v4-f68884fb9d84; home / draw / away: 47.7% / 26.0% / 26.4%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.56 / 1.10; over 2.5 goals: 49.6%; both teams to score: 53.0%; 90 minutes only. - [Villarreal vs Espanyol](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/5729/villarreal-vs-espanyol): La Liga; kickoff 2026-10-30T20:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:33:43.394Z; model version dc-v4-f68884fb9d84; home / draw / away: 62.2% / 21.1% / 16.6%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 2.06 / 0.97; over 2.5 goals: 58.1%; both teams to score: 54.3%; 90 minutes only. - [Athletic Club La Liga results](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/teams/athletic-club) - [Osasuna La Liga results](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/teams/osasuna) - [Atletico Madrid La Liga results](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/teams/atletico-madrid) - [Alaves La Liga results](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/teams/alaves) - [Elche La Liga results](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/teams/elche) - [Barcelona La Liga results](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/teams/barcelona) - [Getafe La Liga results](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/teams/getafe) - [Girona La Liga results](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/teams/girona) - [Levante La Liga results](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/teams/levante) - [Malaga La Liga results](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/teams/malaga) - [Rayo Vallecano La Liga results](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/teams/rayo-vallecano) - [Celta Vigo La Liga results](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/teams/celta-vigo) - [Deportivo La Coruna La Liga results](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/teams/deportivo-la-coruna) - [Espanyol La Liga results](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/teams/espanyol) - [Mallorca La Liga results](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/teams/mallorca) - [Real Betis La Liga results](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/teams/real-betis) - [Real Madrid La Liga results](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/teams/real-madrid) - [Real Oviedo La Liga results](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/teams/real-oviedo) - [Racing Santander La Liga results](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/teams/racing-santander) - [Real Sociedad La Liga results](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/teams/real-sociedad) - [Sevilla La Liga results](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/teams/sevilla) - [Valencia La Liga results](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/teams/valencia) - [Villarreal La Liga results](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/teams/villarreal) - [Does Home Advantage Still Matter in the La Liga? 22 Seasons of Data](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/research/home-advantage): Home teams won 46.7% of 8,068 matches. - [La Liga Goals: Over 2.5 and Both Teams to Score 22 Seasons of Data](https://footballedgelab.com/la-liga/research/goals-over-25-btts): Across 8,068 completed matches, the average was 2.67 goals. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 49.3%; both teams scored in 51.0%. ## Ligue 1 - [Français (fr): Pronostics Ligue 1 2026-27 : Paris Saint-Germain (75.5% titre) et Classement Simulé](https://footballedgelab.com/fr/ligue-1): Sur 20 000 simulations de la saison 2026-27 de Ligue 1, Paris Saint-Germain affiche la plus forte probabilité de titre (75.5%), devant Monaco (6.4%). Sur les six prochains matchs programmés, Paris Saint-Germain obtient le total le plus élevé du modèle avec 13.05 points attendus sur 18. ## Ligue 1 2026-27 predicted final table - [Ligue 1 predicted table](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/season-simulator): 20,000 simulations; 63 played, 243 remaining. Title: Paris Saint-Germain 75.5%, Monaco 6.4%, Lyon 5.4%. Bottom 2: Troyes 73.4%, Le Havre 51.8%, Angers 38.2%. [Season simulator](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/season-simulator). - Published 2026-10-20T00:34:43.854079+00:00; model dc-v4-afde769ec6a7; results through 2026-10-18T18:45:00+00:00. Bottom 2 is a finishing-position probability; third-bottom relegation playoff outcomes are excluded. Top 4 does not guarantee qualification or promotion. - [Ligue 1 fixture outlook](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/fixture-outlook): model expectation for each club's next six scheduled fixtures. CSV: [fixture-outlook.csv](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/fixture-outlook.csv); [predicted-table.csv](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/predicted-table.csv). - [Ligue 1 overview](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1): independent league model; completed score history since 2005-06; updated 2026-10-20T00:34:43.854079+00:00 - Historical source: football-data.co.uk (https://www.football-data.co.uk/francem.php); exact kickoff times from 2019-20, earlier seasons read as a 15:00 local kickoff. - [Ligue 1 predictions](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/predictions): win, draw, away and scoreline probabilities; no injury or confirmed-lineup adjustment - [Ligue 1 tables](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/tables): regular-season results with official points adjustments; playoffs excluded - [Ligue 1 season archive](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/seasons): every completed result since 2005-06 with each season's scoring and home-advantage rates; clubs listed alphabetically, not ranked - [Ligue 1 model record](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/model-performance): independent validation and immutable forecasts; Premier League accuracy does not apply - [Ligue 1 immutable pre-match prediction record](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/model-performance): 5 of 9 settled pre-match forecasts matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome (9 total recorded before kickoff). - [Lyon vs Nice](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7749/lyon-vs-nice): pre-match 1X2 55.3% / 23.9% / 20.8% (recorded 2026-10-17T17:51:14.397Z) → final score 2–1 (top outcome hit). - [Lorient vs Monaco](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7746/lorient-vs-monaco): pre-match 1X2 31.9% / 24.9% / 43.2% (recorded 2026-10-17T13:05:41.250Z) → final score 1–0 (upset / other outcome). - [Paris FC vs Rennes](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7747/paris-vs-rennes): pre-match 1X2 41.8% / 25.6% / 32.6% (recorded 2026-10-17T13:05:41.250Z) → final score 4–3 (top outcome hit). - [Le Havre vs Auxerre](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7748/le-havre-vs-auxerre): pre-match 1X2 36.9% / 29.2% / 33.9% (recorded 2026-10-17T13:05:41.250Z) → final score 1–3 (upset / other outcome). - [Angers vs Marseille](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7745/angers-vs-marseille): pre-match 1X2 22.1% / 25.0% / 52.9% (recorded 2026-10-17T10:55:30.372Z) → final score 2–5 (top outcome hit). - [Troyes vs Lens](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7743/troyes-vs-lens): pre-match 1X2 17.7% / 22.3% / 60.0% (recorded 2026-10-16T16:36:28.341Z) → final score 1–3 (top outcome hit). - [Lille vs Brest](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7744/lille-vs-brest): pre-match 1X2 55.4% / 24.3% / 20.2% (recorded 2026-10-16T16:36:28.341Z) → final score 1–1 (upset / other outcome). - [Strasbourg vs Paris Saint-Germain](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7742/strasbourg-vs-paris-saint-germain): pre-match 1X2 24.3% / 22.3% / 53.4% (recorded 2026-10-16T14:15:39.329Z) → final score 1–3 (top outcome hit). - [Brest vs Nice](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7750/brest-vs-nice): Ligue 1; kickoff 2026-10-23T18:45:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:34:43.854Z; model version dc-v4-afde769ec6a7; home / draw / away: 43.7% / 26.0% / 30.3%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.53 / 1.24; over 2.5 goals: 52.3%; both teams to score: 56.0%; 90 minutes only. - [Toulouse vs Troyes](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7751/toulouse-vs-troyes): Ligue 1; kickoff 2026-10-24T15:15:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:34:43.854Z; model version dc-v4-afde769ec6a7; home / draw / away: 63.8% / 20.8% / 15.4%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 2.08 / 0.92; over 2.5 goals: 57.7%; both teams to score: 53.0%; 90 minutes only. - [Lens vs Paris FC](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7752/lens-vs-paris): Ligue 1; kickoff 2026-10-24T18:45:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:34:43.854Z; model version dc-v4-afde769ec6a7; home / draw / away: 50.9% / 24.8% / 24.3%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.70 / 1.10; over 2.5 goals: 53.1%; both teams to score: 55.0%; 90 minutes only. - [Monaco vs Lille](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7753/monaco-vs-lille): Ligue 1; kickoff 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:34:43.854Z; model version dc-v4-afde769ec6a7; home / draw / away: 40.9% / 26.8% / 32.3%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.42 / 1.24; over 2.5 goals: 49.7%; both teams to score: 54.3%; 90 minutes only. - [Marseille vs Le Havre](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7754/marseille-vs-le-havre): Ligue 1; kickoff 2026-10-25T16:15:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:34:43.854Z; model version dc-v4-afde769ec6a7; home / draw / away: 64.6% / 20.6% / 14.7%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 2.09 / 0.89; over 2.5 goals: 57.4%; both teams to score: 52.1%; 90 minutes only. - [Rennes vs Strasbourg](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7755/rennes-vs-strasbourg): Ligue 1; kickoff 2026-10-25T16:15:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:34:43.854Z; model version dc-v4-afde769ec6a7; home / draw / away: 47.7% / 22.6% / 29.7%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.94 / 1.50; over 2.5 goals: 66.9%; both teams to score: 67.0%; 90 minutes only. - [Angers vs Lorient](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7756/angers-vs-lorient): Ligue 1; kickoff 2026-10-25T16:15:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:34:43.854Z; model version dc-v4-afde769ec6a7; home / draw / away: 30.4% / 28.3% / 41.2%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.09 / 1.31; over 2.5 goals: 43.2%; both teams to score: 49.0%; 90 minutes only. - [Auxerre vs Le Mans](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7757/auxerre-vs-le-mans): Ligue 1; kickoff 2026-10-25T16:15:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:34:43.854Z; model version dc-v4-afde769ec6a7; home / draw / away: 45.7% / 24.4% / 29.9%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.70 / 1.34; over 2.5 goals: 58.7%; both teams to score: 60.8%; 90 minutes only. - [Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7758/paris-saint-germain-vs-lyon): Ligue 1; kickoff 2026-10-25T19:45:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:34:43.854Z; model version dc-v4-afde769ec6a7; home / draw / away: 60.3% / 21.0% / 18.7%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 2.13 / 1.11; over 2.5 goals: 62.9%; both teams to score: 59.5%; 90 minutes only. - [Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7759/le-havre-vs-paris-saint-germain): Ligue 1; kickoff 2026-10-30T18:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:34:43.854Z; model version dc-v4-afde769ec6a7; home / draw / away: 13.6% / 20.2% / 66.2%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 0.84 / 2.10; over 2.5 goals: 56.4%; both teams to score: 50.3%; 90 minutes only. - [Lille vs Lens](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7760/lille-vs-lens): Ligue 1; kickoff 2026-10-30T20:05:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:34:43.854Z; model version dc-v4-afde769ec6a7; home / draw / away: 40.8% / 28.1% / 31.1%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.33 / 1.12; over 2.5 goals: 44.4%; both teams to score: 50.0%; 90 minutes only. - [Nice vs Rennes](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7761/nice-vs-rennes): Ligue 1; kickoff 2026-10-31T16:15:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:34:43.854Z; model version dc-v4-afde769ec6a7; home / draw / away: 35.9% / 25.2% / 38.9%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.45 / 1.52; over 2.5 goals: 57.1%; both teams to score: 60.3%; 90 minutes only. - [Auxerre Ligue 1 results](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/teams/auxerre) - [Angers Ligue 1 results](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/teams/angers) - [Monaco Ligue 1 results](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/teams/monaco) - [Troyes Ligue 1 results](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/teams/troyes) - [Lorient Ligue 1 results](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/teams/lorient) - [Metz Ligue 1 results](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/teams/metz) - [Nantes Ligue 1 results](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/teams/nantes) - [Le Havre Ligue 1 results](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/teams/le-havre) - [Le Mans Ligue 1 results](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/teams/le-mans) - [Lille Ligue 1 results](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/teams/lille) - [Nice Ligue 1 results](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/teams/nice) - [Marseille Ligue 1 results](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/teams/marseille) - [Lyon Ligue 1 results](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/teams/lyon) - [Paris FC Ligue 1 results](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/teams/paris) - [Paris Saint-Germain Ligue 1 results](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/teams/paris-saint-germain) - [Lens Ligue 1 results](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/teams/lens) - [Strasbourg Ligue 1 results](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/teams/strasbourg) - [Brest Ligue 1 results](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/teams/brest) - [Rennes Ligue 1 results](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/teams/rennes) - [Toulouse Ligue 1 results](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/teams/toulouse) - [Does Home Advantage Still Matter in the Ligue 1? 22 Seasons of Data](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/research/home-advantage): Home teams won 44.5% of 7,720 matches. - [Ligue 1 Goals: Over 2.5 and Both Teams to Score 22 Seasons of Data](https://footballedgelab.com/ligue-1/research/goals-over-25-btts): Across 7,720 completed matches, the average was 2.54 goals. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 46.8%; both teams scored in 49.9%. ## Serie A - [Italiano (it): Pronostici Serie A 2026-27: Inter Milan (73.4% Scudetto) e Classifica Simulata](https://footballedgelab.com/it/serie-a): Su 20.000 simulazioni della Serie A 2026-27, Inter Milan ha la probabilità più alta di vincere lo Scudetto (73.4%), davanti a Roma (14.8%). Nelle prossime sei gare in calendario, Inter Milan registra la proiezione più alta del modello con 12.28 punti attesi su 18. ## Serie A 2026-27 predicted final table - [Serie A predicted table](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/season-simulator): 20,000 simulations; 70 played, 310 remaining. Title: Inter Milan 73.4%, Roma 14.8%, Como 3.9%. Bottom 3: Venezia 73.2%, Parma 54.2%, Monza 41.0%. [Season simulator](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/season-simulator). - Published 2026-10-20T00:34:03.756238+00:00; model dc-v4-ba8ae1eb75bb; results through 2026-10-19T18:45:00+00:00. Bottom 3 is a finishing-position probability. Top 4 does not guarantee qualification or promotion. - [Serie A fixture outlook](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/fixture-outlook): model expectation for each club's next six scheduled fixtures. CSV: [fixture-outlook.csv](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/fixture-outlook.csv); [predicted-table.csv](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/predicted-table.csv). - [Serie A overview](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a): independent league model; completed score history since 2005-06; updated 2026-10-20T00:34:03.756238+00:00 - Historical source: football-data.co.uk (https://www.football-data.co.uk/italym.php); exact kickoff times from 2019-20, earlier seasons read as a 15:00 local kickoff. - [Serie A predictions](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/predictions): win, draw, away and scoreline probabilities; no injury or confirmed-lineup adjustment - [Serie A tables](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/tables): regular-season results with official points adjustments; playoffs excluded - [Serie A season archive](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/seasons): every completed result since 2005-06 with each season's scoring and home-advantage rates; clubs listed alphabetically, not ranked - [Serie A model record](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/model-performance): independent validation and immutable forecasts; Premier League accuracy does not apply - [Serie A immutable pre-match prediction record](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/model-performance): 6 of 10 settled pre-match forecasts matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome (10 total recorded before kickoff). - [Parma vs Torino](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7070/parma-vs-torino): pre-match 1X2 33.7% / 29.9% / 36.4% (recorded 2026-10-18T17:11:39.448Z) → final score 0–3 (top outcome hit). - [Monza vs Cagliari](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7069/monza-vs-cagliari): pre-match 1X2 31.9% / 26.8% / 41.3% (recorded 2026-10-18T14:05:43.706Z) → final score 4–0 (upset / other outcome). - [Juventus vs Lazio](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7068/juventus-vs-lazio): pre-match 1X2 47.0% / 27.8% / 25.2% (recorded 2026-10-17T17:51:04.805Z) → final score 0–3 (upset / other outcome). - [AC Milan vs Atalanta](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7067/ac-milan-vs-atalanta): pre-match 1X2 40.0% / 26.9% / 33.2% (recorded 2026-10-17T15:20:56.138Z) → final score 3–2 (top outcome hit). - [Fiorentina vs Como](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7066/fiorentina-vs-como): pre-match 1X2 27.0% / 26.3% / 46.7% (recorded 2026-10-17T10:55:23.872Z) → final score 1–3 (top outcome hit). - [Udinese vs Lecce](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7065/udinese-vs-lecce): pre-match 1X2 48.9% / 28.0% / 23.1% (recorded 2026-10-17T08:34:23.933Z) → final score 0–3 (upset / other outcome). - [Roma vs Genoa](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7064/roma-vs-genoa): pre-match 1X2 62.6% / 22.5% / 14.9% (recorded 2026-10-16T16:35:51.416Z) → final score 2–0 (top outcome hit). - [Bologna vs Inter Milan](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7063/bologna-vs-inter-milan): pre-match 1X2 20.5% / 22.3% / 57.2% (recorded 2026-10-16T14:15:27.611Z) → final score 1–3 (top outcome hit). - [Torino vs Monza](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7071/torino-vs-monza): Serie A; kickoff 2026-10-23T18:45:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:34:03.756Z; model version dc-v4-ba8ae1eb75bb; home / draw / away: 48.1% / 25.0% / 26.8%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.63 / 1.15; over 2.5 goals: 52.6%; both teams to score: 55.2%; 90 minutes only. - [Cagliari vs Bologna](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7072/cagliari-vs-bologna): Serie A; kickoff 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:34:03.756Z; model version dc-v4-ba8ae1eb75bb; home / draw / away: 30.3% / 27.9% / 41.9%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.08 / 1.32; over 2.5 goals: 43.1%; both teams to score: 48.7%; 90 minutes only. - [Como vs Sassuolo](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7073/como-vs-sassuolo): Serie A; kickoff 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:34:03.756Z; model version dc-v4-ba8ae1eb75bb; home / draw / away: 60.4% / 21.7% / 17.9%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.98 / 0.98; over 2.5 goals: 56.6%; both teams to score: 53.9%; 90 minutes only. - [Napoli vs Roma](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7074/napoli-vs-roma): Serie A; kickoff 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:34:03.756Z; model version dc-v4-ba8ae1eb75bb; home / draw / away: 35.3% / 28.9% / 35.8%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.14 / 1.15; over 2.5 goals: 40.3%; both teams to score: 46.8%; 90 minutes only. - [Lazio vs Parma](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7075/lazio-vs-parma): Serie A; kickoff 2026-10-24T18:45:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:34:03.756Z; model version dc-v4-ba8ae1eb75bb; home / draw / away: 56.6% / 26.1% / 17.3%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.54 / 0.72; over 2.5 goals: 39.4%; both teams to score: 40.7%; 90 minutes only. - [Inter Milan vs Fiorentina](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7076/inter-milan-vs-fiorentina): Serie A; kickoff 2026-10-25T11:30:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:34:03.756Z; model version dc-v4-ba8ae1eb75bb; home / draw / away: 70.3% / 17.1% / 12.6%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 2.48 / 0.97; over 2.5 goals: 66.9%; both teams to score: 56.9%; 90 minutes only. - [Atalanta vs Frosinone](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7077/atalanta-vs-frosinone): Serie A; kickoff 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:34:03.756Z; model version dc-v4-ba8ae1eb75bb; home / draw / away: 54.6% / 22.7% / 22.7%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.90 / 1.15; over 2.5 goals: 59.0%; both teams to score: 58.5%; 90 minutes only. - [Genoa vs Venezia](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7078/genoa-vs-venezia): Serie A; kickoff 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:34:03.756Z; model version dc-v4-ba8ae1eb75bb; home / draw / away: 47.3% / 27.3% / 25.3%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.42 / 0.96; over 2.5 goals: 42.6%; both teams to score: 47.1%; 90 minutes only. - [Lecce vs Juventus](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7079/lecce-vs-juventus): Serie A; kickoff 2026-10-25T17:00:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:34:03.756Z; model version dc-v4-ba8ae1eb75bb; home / draw / away: 17.8% / 26.6% / 55.6%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 0.73 / 1.50; over 2.5 goals: 38.5%; both teams to score: 40.3%; 90 minutes only. - [Udinese vs AC Milan](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7080/udinese-vs-ac-milan): Serie A; kickoff 2026-10-25T19:45:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:34:03.756Z; model version dc-v4-ba8ae1eb75bb; home / draw / away: 24.3% / 25.1% / 50.6%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.05 / 1.63; over 2.5 goals: 50.2%; both teams to score: 52.5%; 90 minutes only. - [Sassuolo vs Lazio](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7081/sassuolo-vs-lazio): Serie A; kickoff 2026-10-27T17:30:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:34:03.756Z; model version dc-v4-ba8ae1eb75bb; home / draw / away: 28.9% / 25.8% / 45.3%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.17 / 1.53; over 2.5 goals: 50.8%; both teams to score: 54.4%; 90 minutes only. - [Roma vs Cagliari](https://footballedgelab.com/matches/7082/roma-vs-cagliari): Serie A; kickoff 2026-10-27T19:45:00.000Z; forecast updated 2026-10-20T00:34:03.756Z; model version dc-v4-ba8ae1eb75bb; home / draw / away: 64.0% / 22.2% / 13.8%; model-predicted goals (home / away; not shot-based xG): 1.85 / 0.72; over 2.5 goals: 47.5%; both teams to score: 43.6%; 90 minutes only. - [AC Milan Serie A results](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/teams/ac-milan) - [Monza Serie A results](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/teams/monza) - [Pisa Serie A results](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/teams/pisa) - [Fiorentina Serie A results](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/teams/fiorentina) - [Roma Serie A results](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/teams/roma) - [Atalanta Serie A results](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/teams/atalanta) - [Bologna Serie A results](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/teams/bologna) - [Cagliari Serie A results](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/teams/cagliari) - [Como Serie A results](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/teams/como) - [Inter Milan Serie A results](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/teams/inter-milan) - [Frosinone Serie A results](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/teams/frosinone) - [Genoa Serie A results](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/teams/genoa) - [Hellas Verona Serie A results](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/teams/hellas-verona) - [Juventus Serie A results](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/teams/juventus) - [Parma Serie A results](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/teams/parma) - [Lazio Serie A results](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/teams/lazio) - [Napoli Serie A results](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/teams/napoli) - [Torino Serie A results](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/teams/torino) - [Udinese Serie A results](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/teams/udinese) - [Cremonese Serie A results](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/teams/cremonese) - [Lecce Serie A results](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/teams/lecce) - [Sassuolo Serie A results](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/teams/sassuolo) - [Venezia Serie A results](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/teams/venezia) - [Does Home Advantage Still Matter in the Serie A? 22 Seasons of Data](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/research/home-advantage): Home teams won 44.3% of 8,050 matches. - [Serie A Goals: Over 2.5 and Both Teams to Score 22 Seasons of Data](https://footballedgelab.com/serie-a/research/goals-over-25-btts): Across 8,050 completed matches, the average was 2.67 goals. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 50.0%; both teams scored in 52.7%. ## About - [Methodology](https://footballedgelab.com/methodology) - [Model performance](https://footballedgelab.com/model-performance) - [Editorial policy](https://footballedgelab.com/editorial-policy)