Research · N = 5150
Do Premier League Underdogs or Favourites Pay? 14 Seasons of Data
Backing the outsider in all 5,150 Premier League matches from 2012-13 to 2025-26 at Pinnacle's closing prices returned -2.3% per level stake, and backing the favourite returned -1.2%. Prices of 10.0 or longer returned -14.5%.
Return by closing price
Each row stakes one unit on every result priced in that range at Pinnacle's closing odds. A return of 0% would mean the prices were fair; anything below that is the bookmaker's margin plus any bias in its pricing.
| Price range | Results priced there | Won | Return per bet | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/100 to 1/2 | 1,173 | 76.1% | -0.6% | -3.7% to +2.6% |
| 1/2 to evs | 1,749 | 58.2% | +0.1% | -3.9% to +4.2% |
| evs to 2/1 | 2,746 | 40.3% | -2.7% | -7.1% to +1.9% |
| 2/1 to 4/1 | 6,626 | 25.9% | -4.1% | -7.8% to -0.2% |
| 4/1 to 9/1 | 2,457 | 15.0% | -3.0% | -11.8% to +6.5% |
| 9/1 to longer | 699 | 6.4% | -14.5% | -39.3% to +12.3% |
Simple rules, every match
| Rule | Won | Return per bet | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| Back the favourite | 55.2% | -1.2% | -3.5% to +1.5% |
| Back the home side | 44.7% | -1.6% | -5.5% to +2.1% |
| Back the outsider | 20.5% | -2.3% | -8.5% to +3.8% |
| Back the draw | 23.7% | -5.8% | -10.6% to -0.9% |
No price range and no rule had an interval above zero, so none is shown to make money.
How to read this
Pinnacle has one of the lowest margins in the market, so these are close to the best returns available. Most bookmakers' prices carry a larger margin, which lowers the return on a typical bet. The favourite-longshot bias, where long prices return less than short ones, is a well-documented pattern in betting markets; here it changes how much a bettor loses, not whether they lose.
The intervals resample individual bets. Results in the same match or the same week are related, so the true uncertainty is somewhat wider. Closing prices are only available just before kickoff, and a bookmaker may limit an account that wins. See how accurate bookmaker odds are.
Closing price source: football-data.co.uk. Matches without a Pinnacle closing price are excluded.
Evidence
- Results up to
- 2026-01-08
- Matches used
- 5,150
- Data source
- Closing prices from football-data.co.uk
- Method
- One-unit level stakes at Pinnacle closing 1X2 prices; 95% intervals resample bets.
- Limitations
- One published sample. This is not a betting recommendation.
Cite: Do Premier League Underdogs or Favourites Pay? 14 Seasons of Data. https://footballedgelab.com/research/premier-league-betting-returns-by-odds. N = 5150. Updated 2026-10-05.