Premier League · model vs market

Premier League predictions and odds, checked against the record.

Win, draw and away chances for every match from our statistical model, next to the bookmakers' odds with their margin removed. Every prediction is published before kickoff and scored after it.

Most likely result right: 51.8%Closing odds 53.8% · 1,141 unseen matches
Title favourite: Manchester City60.3% in the predicted table
Season tables: 22 seasons

Gameweek 6

Match predictions 10

All predictions ›

Sat 10 Oct, 12:30Arsenal: model 64% · odds 70%

Arsenal64%

Leeds United13%

Draw 23%Best odds 2/5 · 4/1 · 15/2O2.5 51% · BTTS 47%

Sat 10 Oct, 15:00Brighton: in line with odds

Sunderland32%

Brighton41%

Draw 28%Best odds 2/1 · 5/2 · 11/8O2.5 50% · BTTS 55%

Sat 10 Oct, 15:00Chelsea: model 46% · odds 55%

Chelsea46%

Bournemouth29%

Draw 25%Best odds 8/11 · 10/3 · 7/2O2.5 59% · BTTS 61%

Sat 10 Oct, 15:00Fulham: model 49% · odds 37%

Ipswich25%

Fulham49%

Draw 26%Best odds 7/4 · 5/2 · 13/8O2.5 55% · BTTS 58%

Sat 10 Oct, 15:00Aston Villa: model 41% · odds 37%

Aston Villa41%

Brentford33%

Draw 26%Best odds 13/8 · 5/2 · 13/8O2.5 56% · BTTS 60%

Sat 10 Oct, 17:30Manchester United: model 52% · odds 55%

Manchester United52%

Tottenham24%

Draw 24%Best odds 8/11 · 10/3 · 7/2O2.5 60% · BTTS 61%

Sun 11 Oct, 14:00Hull City: model 38% · odds 25%

Hull City38%

Everton30%

Draw 32%Best odds 11/4 · 5/2 · 11/10O2.5 35% · BTTS 43%

Sun 11 Oct, 14:00Crystal Palace: in line with odds

Crystal Palace37%

Nottingham Forest34%

Draw 29%Best odds 13/8 · 5/2 · 7/4O2.5 45% · BTTS 52%

Sun 11 Oct, 16:30Manchester City: model 42% · odds 38%

Liverpool33%

Manchester City42%

Draw 26%Best odds 13/8 · 11/4 · 6/4O2.5 59% · BTTS 62%

Mon 12 Oct, 20:00Newcastle: model 57% · odds 45%

Coventry City19%

Newcastle57%

Draw 25%Best odds 9/4 · 11/4 · 11/10O2.5 51% · BTTS 51%

9 more matches in the next 14 days on the predictions page.

Model record

How accurate is the model?

Bookmakers' closing odds have been more accurate than the model, across 1,141 past matches the model had not seen.

See the record ›

Research

Does Home Advantage Still Matter in the Premier League?

Home teams won 42.9% of 1,190 matches.

Read the study ›

Guide

How to turn football odds into probabilities

Convert decimal odds into implied probabilities, measure the bookmaker margin and remove it, with a worked example from an upcoming Premier League match.

Read the guide ›

More Premier League data research

All research ›

1,190 matches analysed

Premier League Goals: Over 2.5 and Both Teams to Score

Across 1,190 completed matches, the average was 2.98 goals. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 58.5%; both teams scored in 58.0%.

Read the study ›

5,150 matches analysed

Do Premier League Underdogs or Favourites Pay? 14 Seasons of Data

Backing the outsider in all 5,150 Premier League matches from 2012-13 to 2025-26 at Pinnacle's closing prices returned -2.3% per level stake, and backing the favourite returned -1.2%. Prices of 10.0 or longer returned -14.5%.

Read the study ›

Club archive

Season spotlight

All clubs ›

Premier League predictions and odds, checked against the record.

Match predictions 10

How accurate is the model?

Does Home Advantage Still Matter in the Premier League?

How to turn football odds into probabilities

More Premier League data research

Premier League Goals: Over 2.5 and Both Teams to Score

Do Premier League Underdogs or Favourites Pay? 14 Seasons of Data

Season spotlight

Arsenal · 2025-26

Aston Villa · 2025-26

Bournemouth · 2025-26

Brentford · 2025-26