Premier League · 2026-27 · after 50 of 380 matches
Premier League predicted table 2026-27
Manchester City are the model's title favourites at 62.2%, ahead of Arsenal on 33.6%. Coventry City (93.3%), Ipswich (86.9%) and Tottenham (25.6%) are the most likely to be relegated.
- Title favourite
- Manchester City62.2% · 80.7 pts projected
- Top-four favourites
- Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Brighton
- Most likely relegated
- Coventry City, Ipswich, Tottenham
Projected final table
| # | Club | Now | Projected pts | Likely range | Title | Top 4 | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 1st · 15 pts | 80.7 | 72–90 | 62.2% | 99.3% | <0.1% |
| 2 | Arsenal | 2nd · 12 pts | 76.9 | 68–86 | 33.6% | 97.9% | <0.1% |
| 3 | Liverpool | 6th · 9 pts | 65.6 | 56–75 | 3.0% | 68.1% | <0.1% |
| 4 | Brighton | 3rd · 10 pts | 60.0 | 51–69 | 0.7% | 37.8% | 0.2% |
| 5 | Brentford | 4th · 9 pts | 56.7 | 47–66 | 0.2% | 20.6% | 0.5% |
| 6 | Chelsea | 10th · 7 pts | 56.3 | 47–66 | 0.1% | 18.8% | 0.7% |
| 7 | Newcastle | 9th · 8 pts | 56.2 | 47–66 | 0.1% | 18.2% | 0.7% |
| 8 | Manchester United | 12th · 5 pts | 53.7 | 44–63 | 0.1% | 11.4% | 1.8% |
| 9 | Leeds United | 5th · 9 pts | 51.7 | 43–61 | <0.1% | 6.7% | 2.7% |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 16th · 4 pts | 51.1 | 42–61 | <0.1% | 5.8% | 3.6% |
| 11 | Everton | 7th · 9 pts | 50.2 | 41–59 | <0.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% |
| 12 | Bournemouth | 17th · 3 pts | 49.1 | 40–58 | <0.1% | 3.5% | 6.0% |
| 13 | Hull City | 8th · 8 pts | 49.1 | 40–58 | <0.1% | 3.1% | 5.4% |
| 14 | Nottingham Forest | 13th · 5 pts | 47.5 | 38–57 | <0.1% | 2.1% | 8.7% |
| 15 | Sunderland | 14th · 4 pts | 44.6 | 36–54 | <0.1% | 0.9% | 16.9% |
| 16 | Fulham | 19th · 2 pts | 43.5 | 34–53 | <0.1% | 0.5% | 20.7% |
| 17 | Crystal Palace | 15th · 4 pts | 43.4 | 34–53 | <0.1% | 0.5% | 22.3% |
| 18 | Tottenham | 20th · 2 pts | 42.5 | 33–52 | <0.1% | 0.4% | 25.6% |
| 19 | Ipswich | 11th · 6 pts | 31.3 | 23–40 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 86.9% |
| 20 | Coventry City | 18th · 3 pts | 28.6 | 21–37 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 93.3% |
“Now” is the current league position and points. The likely range covers the middle 80% of simulated points totals. Ordered by projected points.
How the chances have changed
Weekly tracking started in the week of 5 Oct 2026. A new point is published each week, so the chart appears after the second week.
Finishing position chances
Each cell is the share of simulations, in percent, in which the club finished in that position. Blank cells are under 0.5%.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 62 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| Arsenal | 34 | 48 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| Liverpool | 3 | 12 | 34 | 19 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Brighton | 1 | 4 | 15 | 18 | 15 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Brentford | 2 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Chelsea | 1 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Newcastle | 1 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Manchester United | 1 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Leeds United | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Aston Villa | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Everton | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Bournemouth | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||
| Hull City | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| Nottingham Forest | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Sunderland | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 1 | |||
| Fulham | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| Tottenham | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 8 | 3 | ||||
| Ipswich | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 38 | 35 | ||||||||||||
| Coventry City | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 29 | 56 |
Questions about the 2026-27 season
Who will win the Premier League in 2026-27?
In 20,000 simulations of the remaining 330 fixtures, Manchester City won the title 62.2% of the time and Arsenal 33.6%. Manchester City are projected to finish on 80.7 points.
Who will finish in the top four in 2026-27?
The four clubs most often in the top four were Manchester City (99.3%), Arsenal (97.9%), Liverpool (68.1%) and Brighton (37.8%).
Who will be relegated from the Premier League in 2026-27?
The clubs most often in the bottom three were Coventry City (93.3%), Ipswich (86.9%) and Tottenham (25.6%).
How the projection works
Every remaining fixture is played 20,000 times using the same Dixon–Coles model and calibration as the match predictions: each simulated score is drawn from that match's scoreline probabilities. Results already played and league points deductions are kept as they are. Clubs level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored.
Team strengths stay at today's fit for the whole season, so transfers, injuries and form changes later in the season are not included, and chances for matches months away are probably too confident. Sampling error is about ±0.7 percentage points at 50%. This projection has not been separately tested against past seasons. It is not betting advice. Model dc-v4-9bf08718cf9f; results through 20 Sept 2026, 15:30 UTC.
Current 2026-27 table · Match predictions · Model record · Methodology