Backtest · not the live record
How the probabilities scored on past matches.
Not shown to beat the market.
The online record is still accumulating and is not yet enough to judge whether the model beats the market.
Historical evaluation
Backtest
0 matches with a pre-match price and a model fit that could not see those matches.
Published predictions
Live record
0 predictions stored from published pre-24h snapshots. Results are shown after settlement; probabilities are never rewritten.
No published predictions have been recorded yet.
Calibration
Observed outcome rate within each predicted probability range.
Calibration will appear when evaluation data is available.
- data through
- 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26, 2026-27
- sample size
- 0
- method
- Walk-forward Dixon–Coles versus de-vigged 1X2 prices.
- source
- Loaded match database
- limitations
- This is not a five-season claim.