Guides
Football probability, explained.
Short guides to the numbers on this site. Every worked example uses live Premier League data.
How to turn football odds into probabilities
Convert decimal odds into implied probabilities, measure the bookmaker margin and remove it, with a worked example from an upcoming Premier League match.
Read the guide →The Dixon–Coles model, explained
How the Dixon–Coles model turns attack and defence ratings into expected goals, scorelines and match probabilities, and how our version is set up.
Read the guide →Over/under 2.5 goals and both teams to score, explained
What over 2.5 goals and both teams to score mean, how often they happen in the Premier League, and how a score model estimates them for a match.
Read the guide →Are bookmaker odds accurate?
We compared de-vigged closing odds with a statistical model on held-out Premier League matches. Which was more accurate, and how accuracy is measured.
Read the guide →Expected goals from a score model, and how it differs from xG
What the expected goals on our match pages mean, how they come from team ratings rather than shots, and how to read them alongside shot-based xG.
Read the guide →Does home advantage still matter?
Home, draw and away rates by Premier League season, from completed results.
Read the study →