Serie A · independent league model
Do Serie A Underdogs or Favourites Pay? 14 Seasons of Data
Backing the outsider in all 5,136 Premier League matches from 2012-13 to 2025-26 at Pinnacle's closing prices returned -13.1% per level stake, and backing the favourite returned +1.4%. Prices of 10.0 or longer returned -27.0%.
5,136 completed matches across 2012-13, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16, 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26.
Return by Pinnacle closing price
Historical one-unit stakes on every priced outcome in each range. These are archived closing prices, not live quotes. Each interval resamples individual bets; bets from the same match can be dependent. Returns exclude fees, stake restrictions and execution differences.
| Price range | Results priced there | Won | Return per bet | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/100 to 1/2 | 1,050 | 75.3% | +0.1% | -3.7% to +3.6% |
| 1/2 to evs | 1,770 | 59.4% | +2.5% | -1.6% to +6.6% |
| evs to 2/1 | 2,820 | 41.7% | +0.7% | -3.6% to +5.1% |
| 2/1 to 4/1 | 6,840 | 25.7% | -6.4% | -10.6% to -2.8% |
| 4/1 to 9/1 | 2,371 | 13.9% | -11.7% | -21.1% to -2.4% |
| 9/1 to longer | 557 | 5.6% | -27.0% | -50.7% to +0.9% |
Simple rules, every match
| Rule | Won | Return per bet | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| Back the favourite | 55.4% | +1.4% | -1.3% to +4.2% |
| Back the home side | 42.9% | -8.9% | -12.1% to -5.4% |
| Back the outsider | 18.8% | -13.1% | -18.8% to -7.7% |
| Back the draw | 25.9% | -1.7% | -6.2% to +2.6% |
No price range and no rule had an interval above zero, so none is shown to make money.
Only matches with a Pinnacle closing 1X2 quote are included; market-average fallback prices are excluded. Coverage varies by season. Historical returns do not establish a future advantage, and this is not a betting recommendation.
- Results up to
- 2026-01-14
- Matches used
- 5,136
- Data source
- Closing prices from football-data.co.uk
- Method
- One-unit level stakes at Pinnacle closing 1X2 prices; 95% intervals resample bets.
- Limitations
- One published sample. This is not a betting recommendation.
Sources and limitations
Fixtures, results and provider standings: football-data.org. Completed score history since 2005-06: football-data.co.uk. Forecasts use only results available before their publication time.
The source carries exact kickoff times from 2019-20. Earlier seasons give the date only and are read as a 15:00 kickoff in the competition's own timezone, which keeps those results out of training until three hours later.
No verified injury or confirmed-lineup adjustment is included for Serie A. Promotion playoffs and promotion probabilities are outside this model. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Check this league's model record.