Bundesliga · independent league model
Bundesliga Predictions, Results and Tables
18 Bundesliga forecasts are published for the next 14 days. Each gives home, draw and away probabilities, expected goals and likely scores. The model is trained separately from the Premier League.
Next Bundesliga predictions
Latest model forecast ·
Model: Eintracht Frankfurt 55.3%
Latest model forecast ·
Model: Borussia Dortmund 57.0%
Latest model forecast ·
Model: Stuttgart 50.8%
Latest model forecast ·
Model: Werder Bremen 44.8%
Latest model forecast ·
Model: Elversberg 50.0%
Latest model forecast ·
Model: Mainz 36.9%
Current Bundesliga table
After 45 completed Bundesliga matches in 2026-27, Freiburg lead on 13 points. 3.82 goals per match.
| # | Club | Played | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern Munich | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 4 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Mainz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | FC Cologne | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburg | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | Schalke | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | Paderborn | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Monchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 0 |
Regular-season matches only. Standings are calculated from completed results; reconciled provider positions preserve league tie-breakers. Points use provider adjustments, with source-confirmed sanctions corrected where needed. Results through 11 Oct 2026.
Clubs
League research
Questions about the Bundesliga model
How are Bundesliga predictions calculated?
An independent Dixon–Coles model learns Bundesliga attack, defence and home advantage from completed league results since 2020-21. It produces home, draw, away and scoreline probabilities.
Are live odds or confirmed lineups included?
No live bookmaker prices are collected. This league does not have a verified injury or lineup feed in the model. Playoffs are excluded from these regular-season statistics.
Are the predictions guaranteed?
No. Probabilities describe uncertainty. Historical validation and a fixed pre-match record are published separately so the forecasts can be checked against results.
Sources and limitations
Fixtures, results and provider standings: football-data.org. Completed score history since 2020-21: OpenFootball and football-data.org. Forecasts use only results available before their publication time.
Older archive records without a verified timezone use the end of the match date in UTC. Recent seasons use exact football-data.org timestamps. This keeps historical results out of training until their conservative availability time.
No verified injury or confirmed-lineup adjustment is included for Bundesliga. Promotion playoffs and promotion probabilities are outside this model. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Check this league's model record.