Serie A · independent league model
Serie A Predictions, Results and Tables
23 Serie A forecasts are published for the next 14 days. Each gives home, draw and away probabilities, expected goals and likely scores. The model is trained separately from the Premier League.
Next Serie A predictions
Latest model forecast ·
Model: Frosinone 42.2%
Latest model forecast ·
Model: Napoli 64.6%
Latest model forecast ·
Model: Inter Milan 57.2%
Latest model forecast ·
Model: Roma 62.3%
Latest model forecast ·
Model: Udinese 48.9%
Latest model forecast ·
Model: Como 46.9%
Current Serie A table
After 60 completed Serie A matches in 2026-27, Inter Milan lead on 16 points. 2.87 goals per match.
| # | Club | Played | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Milan | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 0 |
Regular-season matches only. Standings are calculated from completed results; reconciled provider positions preserve league tie-breakers. Points use provider adjustments, with source-confirmed sanctions corrected where needed. Results through 12 Oct 2026.
Clubs
League research
Questions about the Serie A model
How are Serie A predictions calculated?
An independent Dixon–Coles model learns Serie A attack, defence and home advantage from completed league results since 2020-21. It produces home, draw, away and scoreline probabilities.
Are live odds or confirmed lineups included?
No live bookmaker prices are collected. This league does not have a verified injury or lineup feed in the model. Playoffs are excluded from these regular-season statistics.
Are the predictions guaranteed?
No. Probabilities describe uncertainty. Historical validation and a fixed pre-match record are published separately so the forecasts can be checked against results.
Sources and limitations
Fixtures, results and provider standings: football-data.org. Completed score history since 2020-21: OpenFootball and football-data.org. Forecasts use only results available before their publication time.
Older archive records without a verified timezone use the end of the match date in UTC. Recent seasons use exact football-data.org timestamps. This keeps historical results out of training until their conservative availability time.
No verified injury or confirmed-lineup adjustment is included for Serie A. Promotion playoffs and promotion probabilities are outside this model. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Check this league's model record.