Ligue 1 · independent league model
Ligue 1 Predictions, Results and Tables
18 Ligue 1 forecasts are published for the next 14 days. Each gives home, draw and away probabilities, expected goals and likely scores. The model is trained separately from the Premier League.
Next Ligue 1 predictions
Latest model forecast ·
Model: Le Mans 43.2%
Latest model forecast ·
Model: Paris Saint-Germain 53.3%
Latest model forecast ·
Model: Lens 60.0%
Latest model forecast ·
Model: Lille 55.4%
Latest model forecast ·
Model: Marseille 52.8%
Latest model forecast ·
Model: Monaco 43.2%
Current Ligue 1 table
After 54 completed Ligue 1 matches in 2026-27, Monaco lead on 14 points. 2.91 goals per match.
| # | Club | Played | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint-Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Brest | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 |
Regular-season matches only. Standings are calculated from completed results; reconciled provider positions preserve league tie-breakers. Points use provider adjustments, with source-confirmed sanctions corrected where needed. Results through 11 Oct 2026.
Clubs
League research
Questions about the Ligue 1 model
How are Ligue 1 predictions calculated?
An independent Dixon–Coles model learns Ligue 1 attack, defence and home advantage from completed league results since 2020-21. It produces home, draw, away and scoreline probabilities.
Are live odds or confirmed lineups included?
No live bookmaker prices are collected. This league does not have a verified injury or lineup feed in the model. Playoffs are excluded from these regular-season statistics.
Are the predictions guaranteed?
No. Probabilities describe uncertainty. Historical validation and a fixed pre-match record are published separately so the forecasts can be checked against results.
Sources and limitations
Fixtures, results and provider standings: football-data.org. Completed score history since 2020-21: OpenFootball and football-data.org. Forecasts use only results available before their publication time.
Older archive records without a verified timezone use the end of the match date in UTC. Recent seasons use exact football-data.org timestamps. This keeps historical results out of training until their conservative availability time.
No verified injury or confirmed-lineup adjustment is included for Ligue 1. Promotion playoffs and promotion probabilities are outside this model. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Check this league's model record.