La Liga · independent league model
La Liga Predictions, Results and Tables
21 La Liga forecasts are published for the next 14 days. Each gives home, draw and away probabilities, expected goals and likely scores. The model is trained separately from the Premier League.
Next La Liga predictions
Latest model forecast ·
Model: Deportivo La Coruna 52.9%
Latest model forecast ·
Model: Atletico Madrid 48.2%
Latest model forecast ·
Model: Villarreal 65.7%
Latest model forecast ·
Model: Barcelona 52.4%
Latest model forecast ·
Model: Valencia 36.8%
Latest model forecast ·
Model: Osasuna 57.9%
Current La Liga table
After 78 completed La Liga matches in 2026-27, Barcelona lead on 24 points. 3.09 goals per match.
| # | Club | Played | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 7 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
Regular-season matches only. Standings are calculated from completed results; reconciled provider positions preserve league tie-breakers. Points use provider adjustments, with source-confirmed sanctions corrected where needed. Results through 12 Oct 2026.
Clubs
League research
Questions about the La Liga model
How are La Liga predictions calculated?
An independent Dixon–Coles model learns La Liga attack, defence and home advantage from completed league results since 2020-21. It produces home, draw, away and scoreline probabilities.
Are live odds or confirmed lineups included?
No live bookmaker prices are collected. This league does not have a verified injury or lineup feed in the model. Playoffs are excluded from these regular-season statistics.
Are the predictions guaranteed?
No. Probabilities describe uncertainty. Historical validation and a fixed pre-match record are published separately so the forecasts can be checked against results.
Sources and limitations
Fixtures, results and provider standings: football-data.org. Completed score history since 2020-21: OpenFootball and football-data.org. Forecasts use only results available before their publication time.
Older archive records without a verified timezone use the end of the match date in UTC. Recent seasons use exact football-data.org timestamps. This keeps historical results out of training until their conservative availability time.
No verified injury or confirmed-lineup adjustment is included for La Liga. Promotion playoffs and promotion probabilities are outside this model. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Check this league's model record.