Championship · independent league model
Do Championship Underdogs or Favourites Pay? 14 Seasons of Data
Backing the outsider in all 7,445 Premier League matches from 2012-13 to 2025-26 at Pinnacle's closing prices returned -2.6% per level stake, and backing the favourite returned -3.2%. Prices of 10.0 or longer returned -100.0%.
7,445 completed matches across 2012-13, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16, 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26.
Return by Pinnacle closing price
Historical one-unit stakes on every priced outcome in each range. These are archived closing prices, not live quotes. Each interval resamples individual bets; bets from the same match can be dependent. Returns exclude fees, stake restrictions and execution differences.
| Price range | Results priced there | Won | Return per bet | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/100 to 1/2 | 362 | 72.1% | -0.1% | -6.3% to +6.6% |
| 1/2 to evs | 2,292 | 55.7% | -1.9% | -5.4% to +1.4% |
| evs to 2/1 | 5,990 | 39.9% | -2.6% | -5.4% to +0.4% |
| 2/1 to 4/1 | 12,014 | 27.0% | -3.8% | -6.5% to -1.0% |
| 4/1 to 9/1 | 1,587 | 17.6% | +5.7% | -5.5% to +17.2% |
| 9/1 to longer | 90 | 0.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% to -100.0% |
Simple rules, every match
| Rule | Won | Return per bet | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| Back the favourite | 46.9% | -3.2% | -5.7% to -0.8% |
| Back the home side | 43.2% | -1.2% | -4.0% to +1.7% |
| Back the outsider | 24.5% | -2.6% | -6.7% to +1.6% |
| Back the draw | 26.9% | -4.1% | -8.0% to -0.3% |
No price range and no rule had an interval above zero, so none is shown to make money.
Only matches with a Pinnacle closing 1X2 quote are included; market-average fallback prices are excluded. Coverage varies by season. Historical returns do not establish a future advantage, and this is not a betting recommendation.
- Results up to
- 2026-01-05
- Matches used
- 7,445
- Data source
- Closing prices from football-data.co.uk
- Method
- One-unit level stakes at Pinnacle closing 1X2 prices; 95% intervals resample bets.
- Limitations
- One published sample. This is not a betting recommendation.
Sources and limitations
Fixtures, results and provider standings: football-data.org. Completed score history since 2005-06: football-data.co.uk. Forecasts use only results available before their publication time.
The source carries exact kickoff times from 2019-20. Earlier seasons give the date only and are read as a 15:00 kickoff in the competition's own timezone, which keeps those results out of training until three hours later.
No verified injury or confirmed-lineup adjustment is included for Championship. Promotion playoffs and promotion probabilities are outside this model. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Check this league's model record.