La Liga · independent league model
Do La Liga Underdogs or Favourites Pay? 14 Seasons of Data
Backing the outsider in all 5,127 Premier League matches from 2012-13 to 2025-26 at Pinnacle's closing prices returned -5.4% per level stake, and backing the favourite returned -0.2%. Prices of 10.0 or longer returned -5.3%.
5,127 completed matches across 2012-13, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16, 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26.
Return by Pinnacle closing price
Historical one-unit stakes on every priced outcome in each range. These are archived closing prices, not live quotes. Each interval resamples individual bets; bets from the same match can be dependent. Returns exclude fees, stake restrictions and execution differences.
| Price range | Results priced there | Won | Return per bet | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/100 to 1/2 | 1,067 | 79.9% | +3.3% | +0.1% to +6.4% |
| 1/2 to evs | 1,656 | 55.9% | -3.3% | -7.3% to +0.6% |
| evs to 2/1 | 3,012 | 40.5% | -1.7% | -6.0% to +2.5% |
| 2/1 to 4/1 | 6,709 | 26.5% | -4.0% | -8.1% to -0.2% |
| 4/1 to 9/1 | 2,177 | 14.1% | -9.4% | -18.4% to +0.3% |
| 9/1 to longer | 760 | 6.2% | -5.3% | -32.0% to +25.2% |
Simple rules, every match
| Rule | Won | Return per bet | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| Back the favourite | 54.7% | -0.2% | -2.9% to +2.2% |
| Back the home side | 45.9% | -2.1% | -6.0% to +1.6% |
| Back the outsider | 20.0% | -5.4% | -11.2% to +1.2% |
| Back the draw | 25.5% | -3.3% | -8.4% to +1.2% |
At least one row had an interval above zero. One sample is not proof of a lasting edge.
Only matches with a Pinnacle closing 1X2 quote are included; market-average fallback prices are excluded. Coverage varies by season. Historical returns do not establish a future advantage, and this is not a betting recommendation.
- Results up to
- 2026-01-12
- Matches used
- 5,127
- Data source
- Closing prices from football-data.co.uk
- Method
- One-unit level stakes at Pinnacle closing 1X2 prices; 95% intervals resample bets.
- Limitations
- One published sample. This is not a betting recommendation.
Sources and limitations
Fixtures, results and provider standings: football-data.org. Completed score history since 2005-06: football-data.co.uk. Forecasts use only results available before their publication time.
The source carries exact kickoff times from 2019-20. Earlier seasons give the date only and are read as a 15:00 kickoff in the competition's own timezone, which keeps those results out of training until three hours later.
No verified injury or confirmed-lineup adjustment is included for La Liga. Promotion playoffs and promotion probabilities are outside this model. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Check this league's model record.