Conference League · League phase · Matchday 4

Ajax vs Thun prediction

Ajax

vsThu 26 Nov, 17:45 GMT

Thun

Latest model forecast72%16%12%

1 · Ajax72.2%

X · Draw15.7%

2 · Thun12.1%

Forecast updated Thu 12 Nov, 04:19

Venue: Johan Cruijff ArenA.

Goals and likely scores

Expected goals: 2.65 – 1.01model, not shot xG
Over 2.5 goals: 70.8%Under 29.2%
Both teams score: 59.1%No 40.9%

Most likely scores

2–19.1%

2–09.0%

3–18.1%

3–08.0%

1–16.9%

90 minutes only. Scores come from independent Poisson goal counts, which can slightly understate draws.

How do Ajax and Thun compare?

Club	League	Attack	Goals conceded
Ajax	Eredivisie	0.86×	1.34×
Thun	Swiss Super League	0.68×	2.18×

Relative to an average Premier League club. Higher attack and lower goals conceded are stronger. Rating method.

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Updated 12 Nov 2026, 04:19 UTC · 90-minute probabilities.