Conference League · 2026-27
Conference League predictions 2026-27
54 upcoming forecasts and projected league-phase standings.
Updated 12 Nov 2026, 04:19 UTC · Results through 9 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC · Model eu-joint-v1. Probabilities cover 90 minutes only.
Upcoming match predictions
League phase · Matchday 4
League phase · Matchday 4
League phase · Matchday 4
League phase · Matchday 4
League phase · Matchday 4
League phase · Matchday 4
League phase · Matchday 4
League phase · Matchday 4
League phase · Matchday 4
League phase · Matchday 4
League phase · Matchday 4
League phase · Matchday 4
League phase · Matchday 4
League phase · Matchday 4
League phase · Matchday 4
League phase · Matchday 4
League phase · Matchday 4
League phase · Matchday 4
Projected league-phase table
54 of 108 league-phase matches played. 10,000 simulations per remaining fixture.
| Proj. | Club | Now | P | GD | Pts | Exp. pts | Top 8 | 9–24 | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 4 | 3 | +6 | 9 | 14.6 | 95% | 5% | 0% |
| 2 | Twente | 3 | 3 | +6 | 9 | 14.3 | 87% | 13% | 0% |
| 3 | Brighton | 5 | 3 | +5 | 7 | 13.7 | 85% | 15% | 0% |
| 4 | Lugano | 1 | 3 | +7 | 9 | 12.8 | 67% | 33% | 0% |
| 5 | FC Copenhagen | 7 | 3 | +4 | 7 | 12.4 | 61% | 39% | 0% |
| 6 | Panathinaikos | 2 | 3 | +6 | 9 | 12.3 | 56% | 44% | 0% |
| 7 | Ajax | 11 | 3 | +6 | 6 | 11.7 | 56% | 43% | 0% |
| 8 | Freiburg | 14 | 3 | -1 | 6 | 12.0 | 49% | 51% | 1% |
| 9 | Trabzonspor | 12 | 3 | +3 | 6 | 11.1 | 39% | 60% | 1% |
| 10 | Atalanta | 16 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10.9 | 37% | 62% | 2% |
| 11 | Brann | 6 | 3 | +4 | 7 | 10.8 | 32% | 68% | 0% |
| 12 | Braga | 17 | 3 | -1 | 4 | 10.7 | 29% | 70% | 1% |
| 13 | Sint-Truiden | 10 | 3 | +3 | 7 | 10.8 | 30% | 70% | 0% |
| 14 | Mjallby | 9 | 3 | +4 | 7 | 10.6 | 26% | 74% | 0% |
| 15 | Universitatea Craiova | 8 | 3 | +4 | 7 | 10.0 | 18% | 82% | 1% |
| 16 | Hajduk Split | 13 | 3 | +1 | 6 | 9.8 | 15% | 79% | 6% |
| 17 | Gent | 18 | 3 | -1 | 4 | 9.2 | 11% | 78% | 11% |
| 18 | Red Star Belgrade | 15 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 8.1 | 5% | 78% | 17% |
| 19 | Jablonec | 23 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 6.8 | 1% | 65% | 34% |
| 20 | Riga | 19 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6.7 | 1% | 62% | 37% |
| 21 | Nordsjaelland | 25 | 3 | -2 | 2 | 6.6 | 1% | 59% | 41% |
| 22 | Getafe | 30 | 3 | -4 | 1 | 6.6 | 0% | 62% | 38% |
| 23 | Egnatia | 26 | 3 | -2 | 2 | 6.3 | 0% | 53% | 47% |
| 24 | Aarhus | 24 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 6.1 | 0% | 49% | 51% |
| 25 | Thun | 20 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6.1 | 1% | 50% | 50% |
| 26 | Midtjylland | 34 | 3 | -6 | 1 | 6.3 | 0% | 52% | 49% |
| 27 | Borac Banja Luka | 21 | 3 | -1 | 3 | 5.8 | 0% | 40% | 60% |
| 28 | Pafos | 31 | 3 | -4 | 1 | 5.5 | 0% | 40% | 60% |
| 29 | CSKA Sofia | 28 | 3 | -2 | 1 | 5.1 | 0% | 38% | 62% |
| 30 | Kairat Almaty | 27 | 3 | -4 | 2 | 4.8 | 0% | 19% | 81% |
| 31 | Hearts | 32 | 3 | -4 | 1 | 4.6 | 0% | 23% | 77% |
| 32 | Lincoln Red Imps | 22 | 3 | -3 | 3 | 4.3 | 0% | 11% | 89% |
| 33 | Iberia 1999 | 29 | 3 | -3 | 1 | 2.9 | 0% | 6% | 94% |
| 34 | KuPS | 33 | 3 | -4 | 1 | 2.9 | 0% | 5% | 95% |
| 35 | Inter Escaldes | 35 | 3 | -5 | 0 | 1.7 | 0% | 2% | 98% |
| 36 | Kauno Zalgiris | 36 | 3 | -10 | 0 | 1.8 | 0% | 1% | 99% |
Top 8: round of 16 · 9–24: play-offs · 25–36: eliminated. Rankings use points, goal difference and goals scored; further ties are split randomly, not by UEFA’s remaining tie-breakers.
Record this season
The record starts with forecasts published before kickoff; earlier results are not scored retrospectively.
All published match forecasts
All season forecasts · UTC dates · completed matches retain their pre-match probabilities.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Round | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kairat Almaty vs Mjallby | League phase · Matchday 4 | — | |
| Kauno Zalgiris vs Riga | League phase · Matchday 4 | — | |
| Ajax vs Thun | League phase · Matchday 4 | — | |
| Egnatia vs Lincoln Red Imps | League phase · Matchday 4 | — | |
| Pafos vs Midtjylland | League phase · Matchday 4 | — | |
| Brighton vs Universitatea Craiova | League phase · Matchday 4 | — | |
| Brann vs Aarhus | League phase · Matchday 4 | — | |
| Iberia 1999 vs Getafe | League phase · Matchday 4 | — | |
| Jablonec vs Lugano | League phase · Matchday 4 | — | |
| Hearts vs Monaco | League phase · Matchday 4 | — | |
| Hajduk Split vs Sint-Truiden | League phase · Matchday 4 | — | |
| Inter Escaldes vs FC Copenhagen | League phase · Matchday 4 | — | |
| Gent vs Red Star Belgrade | League phase · Matchday 4 | — | |
| Borac Banja Luka vs Atalanta | League phase · Matchday 4 | — | |
| Braga vs KuPS | League phase · Matchday 4 | — | |
| Nordsjaelland vs Panathinaikos | League phase · Matchday 4 | — | |
| Freiburg vs Twente | League phase · Matchday 4 | — | |
| CSKA Sofia vs Trabzonspor | League phase · Matchday 4 | — | |
| Kairat Almaty vs Universitatea Craiova | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Riga vs Atalanta | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Brann vs Braga | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Getafe vs Inter Escaldes | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Iberia 1999 vs Red Star Belgrade | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Freiburg vs Panathinaikos | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| KuPS vs CSKA Sofia | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Trabzonspor vs Jablonec | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| FC Copenhagen vs Lugano | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Lincoln Red Imps vs Midtjylland | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Egnatia vs Kauno Zalgiris | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Hajduk Split vs Nordsjaelland | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Aarhus vs Twente | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Hearts vs Borac Banja Luka | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Thun vs Gent | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Brighton vs Monaco | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Sint-Truiden vs Ajax | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Mjallby vs Pafos | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Kauno Zalgiris vs Freiburg | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Atalanta vs Mjallby | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| CSKA Sofia vs Thun | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Red Star Belgrade vs Trabzonspor | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Gent vs Brann | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Jablonec vs Iberia 1999 | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Twente vs Kairat Almaty | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Borac Banja Luka vs Riga | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Panathinaikos vs Brighton | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Inter Escaldes vs Aarhus | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Universitatea Craiova vs FC Copenhagen | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Lugano vs Sint-Truiden | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Ajax vs Getafe | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Monaco vs Lincoln Red Imps | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Midtjylland vs Hajduk Split | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Nordsjaelland vs KuPS | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Braga vs Egnatia | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Pafos vs Hearts | League phase · Matchday 6 | — |
Model and evidence
One rating scale combines domestic and European results. Recent matches carry more weight; forecasts cover 90 minutes.
Ratings, historical test and sources
Every club has one attack and one defence rating on a shared scale, fitted to domestic results from 22 leagues and to European results. Each club's rating is pulled towards its league's level, and each league's level is learned only from matches between leagues: European ties, plus promotion and relegation. Recent results count more; a result from a year ago counts half as much.
The average club of each league represented this season, against an average Premier League club on neutral ground:
| League | Win | Draw | Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| La Liga | 21% | 24% | 56% |
| Bundesliga | 20% | 23% | 57% |
| Serie A | 20% | 23% | 57% |
| Ligue 1 | 18% | 22% | 59% |
| Belgian Pro League | 12% | 19% | 69% |
| Cyprus (European results only) | 12% | 18% | 70% |
| Eredivisie | 12% | 18% | 70% |
| Primeira Liga | 11% | 18% | 71% |
| Czech Republic (European results only) | 11% | 18% | 71% |
| Croatia (European results only) | 10% | 17% | 74% |
| Süper Lig | 8% | 15% | 77% |
| Allsvenskan | 8% | 15% | 77% |
| Swiss Super League | 8% | 15% | 77% |
| Eliteserien | 8% | 15% | 77% |
| Greek Super League | 7% | 13% | 80% |
| Danish Superliga | 6% | 13% | 81% |
| BUL (European results only) | 6% | 13% | 81% |
| Liga I | 6% | 13% | 82% |
| Serbia (European results only) | 6% | 12% | 82% |
| Scottish Premiership | 5% | 11% | 85% |
| LVA (European results only) | 4% | 10% | 87% |
| Kazakhstan (European results only) | 3% | 8% | 88% |
| BIH (European results only) | 3% | 7% | 90% |
| ALB (European results only) | 3% | 7% | 90% |
| GEO (European results only) | 2% | 5% | 94% |
| AND (European results only) | 1% | 5% | 94% |
| Veikkausliiga | 1% | 3% | 96% |
| GIB (European results only) | 1% | 3% | 96% |
| LTU (European results only) | 1% | 3% | 97% |
League strength rankings, methodology and CSV →
How well did this model do on past European matches?
Before publishing, the model was tested walk-forward on 2,817 Champions League, Europa League and Conference League matches from 2016-17 to 2026-27, each forecast using only results available before kickoff. Its log loss was 0.942, against 0.982 for the same model without league levels and 1.051 for historical outcome shares. The improvement over the model without league levels was 0.041 (95% interval 0.030 to 0.051), and it held in each of three periods. On 1,426 Champions League matches alone the log loss was 0.914.
Limitations
- This season's Europa League and Conference League results enter the ratings from their league phases only; older European results count for less as they age.
- Only league-phase matches are published for the Conference League. Knockout rounds are not forecast yet, because the fixture feed does not say whether a knockout score includes extra time.
- Injuries, rotation and two-legged tie situations are not modelled. Knockout probabilities are for 90 minutes, not for qualification.
- The model has not been compared with bookmaker prices. It was tested against simpler models only.
Sources: European results from openfootball (public domain), the current Conference League from fixturedownload.com, domestic leagues from football-data.co.uk. Full methodology.