Europa League · 2026-27
Europa League predictions 2026-27
72 upcoming forecasts and projected league-phase standings.
Updated 12 Nov 2026, 04:19 UTC · Results through 9 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC · Model eu-joint-v1. Probabilities cover 90 minutes only.
Upcoming match predictions
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
Projected league-phase table
72 of 144 league-phase matches played. 10,000 simulations per remaining fixture.
| Proj. | Club | Now | P | GD | Pts | Exp. pts | Top 8 | 9–24 | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bournemouth | 2 | 4 | +9 | 12 | 21.4 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| 2 | Benfica | 1 | 4 | +10 | 12 | 21.0 | 99% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | Juventus | 5 | 4 | +7 | 10 | 18.1 | 90% | 10% | 0% |
| 4 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 4 | 4 | +8 | 10 | 17.6 | 86% | 14% | 0% |
| 5 | Ferencvaros | 3 | 4 | +8 | 12 | 17.8 | 86% | 14% | 0% |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | +7 | 9 | 16.7 | 78% | 22% | 0% |
| 7 | Olympiacos | 6 | 4 | +3 | 10 | 16.8 | 72% | 28% | 0% |
| 8 | Lyon | 13 | 4 | -1 | 7 | 14.1 | 31% | 67% | 2% |
| 9 | Sunderland | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 13.7 | 25% | 72% | 3% |
| 10 | Rennes | 17 | 4 | +1 | 6 | 13.1 | 24% | 70% | 5% |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 21 | 4 | +3 | 5 | 12.7 | 21% | 73% | 6% |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 12 | 4 | -1 | 7 | 13.1 | 19% | 76% | 5% |
| 13 | Besiktas | 8 | 4 | +3 | 7 | 12.1 | 12% | 81% | 7% |
| 14 | AZ Alkmaar | 14 | 4 | +3 | 6 | 11.8 | 11% | 79% | 11% |
| 15 | Real Sociedad | 20 | 4 | +5 | 5 | 11.5 | 10% | 80% | 11% |
| 16 | Anderlecht | 15 | 4 | +3 | 6 | 11.3 | 8% | 76% | 16% |
| 17 | AC Milan | 28 | 4 | -3 | 3 | 11.0 | 4% | 80% | 16% |
| 18 | Dinamo Zagreb | 9 | 4 | +1 | 7 | 11.4 | 7% | 76% | 18% |
| 19 | Marseille | 31 | 4 | -4 | 3 | 10.7 | 3% | 73% | 24% |
| 20 | Hoffenheim | 22 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 10.1 | 3% | 67% | 29% |
| 21 | Levski Sofia | 10 | 4 | +1 | 7 | 10.5 | 2% | 70% | 28% |
| 22 | Omonia Nicosia | 18 | 4 | -1 | 6 | 10.5 | 4% | 67% | 30% |
| 23 | RB Salzburg | 26 | 4 | -5 | 4 | 9.9 | 1% | 61% | 38% |
| 24 | Celta Vigo | 27 | 4 | -2 | 3 | 9.4 | 1% | 60% | 39% |
| 25 | OFI Crete | 16 | 4 | +1 | 6 | 9.2 | 1% | 51% | 49% |
| 26 | Torreense | 19 | 4 | -2 | 6 | 9.3 | 1% | 48% | 52% |
| 27 | Celje | 25 | 4 | -4 | 4 | 8.8 | 1% | 43% | 56% |
| 28 | Sturm Graz | 24 | 4 | -3 | 4 | 8.7 | 1% | 42% | 58% |
| 29 | Sparta Prague | 23 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 8.0 | 0% | 36% | 64% |
| 30 | Celtic | 32 | 4 | -5 | 3 | 7.6 | 0% | 27% | 73% |
| 31 | Viktoria Plzen | 30 | 4 | -4 | 3 | 6.4 | 0% | 12% | 88% |
| 32 | Jagiellonia | 29 | 4 | -3 | 3 | 6.1 | 0% | 12% | 88% |
| 33 | Lech Poznan | 35 | 4 | -10 | 1 | 6.3 | 0% | 13% | 87% |
| 34 | Lillestrom | 34 | 4 | -8 | 1 | 3.6 | 0% | 1% | 99% |
| 35 | Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 33 | 4 | -7 | 1 | 2.8 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 36 | 4 | -10 | 0 | 1.5 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
Top 8: round of 16 · 9–24: play-offs · 25–36: eliminated. Rankings use points, goal difference and goals scored; further ties are split randomly, not by UEFA’s remaining tie-breakers.
Record this season
The record starts with forecasts published before kickoff; earlier results are not scored retrospectively.
All published match forecasts
All season forecasts · UTC dates · completed matches retain their pre-match probabilities.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Round | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Zagreb vs Bayer Leverkusen | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Olympiacos vs AC Milan | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Union Saint-Gilloise vs Lech Poznan | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Marseille vs Levski Sofia | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Celta Vigo vs Bournemouth | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Viktoria Plzen vs Benfica | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| RB Salzburg vs Ararat-Armenia | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Besiktas vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Hoffenheim vs Sturm Graz | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Crystal Palace vs Real Sociedad | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Sunderland vs Jagiellonia | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Lyon vs Lillestrom | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| NEC Nijmegen vs Rennes | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| OFI Crete vs Anderlecht | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Sparta Prague vs AZ Alkmaar | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Ferencvaros vs Celje | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Torreense vs Celtic | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Juventus vs Omonia Nicosia | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Anderlecht vs Hoffenheim | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Rennes vs Dinamo Zagreb | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Juventus | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Celje vs Olympiacos | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| AZ Alkmaar vs Sturm Graz | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Marseille vs Celta Vigo | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Omonia Nicosia vs Celtic | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Ararat-Armenia vs NEC Nijmegen | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Jagiellonia vs Crystal Palace | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Real Sociedad vs Torreense | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Bournemouth vs Viktoria Plzen | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| RB Salzburg vs Sparta Prague | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Benfica vs OFI Crete | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| AC Milan vs Sunderland | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Lech Poznan vs Ferencvaros | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Bayer Leverkusen vs Besiktas | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Levski Sofia vs Lillestrom | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Lyon vs Union Saint-Gilloise | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Jagiellonia vs Lyon | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Lillestrom vs Bournemouth | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| NEC Nijmegen vs Benfica | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Besiktas vs Union Saint-Gilloise | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Ararat-Armenia vs Celje | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Ferencvaros vs Juventus | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Real Sociedad vs Viktoria Plzen | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Olympiacos vs Hoffenheim | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Sturm Graz vs OFI Crete | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Anderlecht vs Sunderland | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Lech Poznan vs Torreense | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Celta Vigo | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Crystal Palace vs Sparta Prague | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Salzburg | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Levski Sofia vs AC Milan | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| AZ Alkmaar vs Dinamo Zagreb | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Rennes vs Omonia Nicosia | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Celtic vs Marseille | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Celta Vigo vs Lillestrom | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| Dinamo Zagreb vs Sturm Graz | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| Celje vs NEC Nijmegen | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| Sunderland vs Levski Sofia | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| Bournemouth vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| Marseille vs Anderlecht | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| Union Saint-Gilloise vs Celtic | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| Lyon vs Bayer Leverkusen | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| Hoffenheim vs Ferencvaros | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| Viktoria Plzen vs Jagiellonia | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| Juventus vs Real Sociedad | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| Omonia Nicosia vs Besiktas | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| RB Salzburg vs Crystal Palace | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| Torreense vs Olympiacos | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| Sparta Prague vs Rennes | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| OFI Crete vs Lech Poznan | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| AC Milan vs Ararat-Armenia | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar | League phase · Matchday 8 | — |
Model and evidence
One rating scale combines domestic and European results. Recent matches carry more weight; forecasts cover 90 minutes.
Ratings, historical test and sources
Every club has one attack and one defence rating on a shared scale, fitted to domestic results from 22 leagues and to European results. Each club's rating is pulled towards its league's level, and each league's level is learned only from matches between leagues: European ties, plus promotion and relegation. Recent results count more; a result from a year ago counts half as much.
The average club of each league represented this season, against an average Premier League club on neutral ground:
| League | Win | Draw | Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| La Liga | 21% | 24% | 56% |
| Bundesliga | 20% | 23% | 57% |
| Serie A | 20% | 23% | 57% |
| Ligue 1 | 18% | 22% | 59% |
| Belgian Pro League | 12% | 19% | 69% |
| HUN (European results only) | 12% | 19% | 70% |
| Cyprus (European results only) | 12% | 18% | 70% |
| Eredivisie | 12% | 18% | 70% |
| Primeira Liga | 11% | 18% | 71% |
| Czech Republic (European results only) | 11% | 18% | 71% |
| Croatia (European results only) | 10% | 17% | 74% |
| Süper Lig | 8% | 15% | 77% |
| Eliteserien | 8% | 15% | 77% |
| Greek Super League | 7% | 13% | 80% |
| ISR (European results only) | 6% | 13% | 81% |
| BUL (European results only) | 6% | 13% | 81% |
| Austrian Bundesliga | 6% | 13% | 82% |
| Ekstraklasa | 6% | 12% | 82% |
| SVN (European results only) | 6% | 12% | 83% |
| Scottish Premiership | 5% | 11% | 85% |
| ARM (European results only) | 3% | 7% | 90% |
League strength rankings, methodology and CSV →
How well did this model do on past European matches?
Before publishing, the model was tested walk-forward on 2,817 Champions League, Europa League and Conference League matches from 2016-17 to 2026-27, each forecast using only results available before kickoff. Its log loss was 0.942, against 0.982 for the same model without league levels and 1.051 for historical outcome shares. The improvement over the model without league levels was 0.041 (95% interval 0.030 to 0.051), and it held in each of three periods. On 1,426 Champions League matches alone the log loss was 0.914.
Limitations
- This season's Europa League and Conference League results enter the ratings from their league phases only; older European results count for less as they age.
- Only league-phase matches are published for the Europa League. Knockout rounds are not forecast yet, because the fixture feed does not say whether a knockout score includes extra time.
- Injuries, rotation and two-legged tie situations are not modelled. Knockout probabilities are for 90 minutes, not for qualification.
- The model has not been compared with bookmaker prices. It was tested against simpler models only.
Sources: European results from openfootball (public domain), the current Europa League from fixturedownload.com, domestic leagues from football-data.co.uk. Full methodology.