Champions League · 2026-27
Champions League predictions 2026-27
72 upcoming forecasts and projected league-phase standings.
Updated 12 Nov 2026, 04:19 UTC · Results through 9 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC · Model eu-joint-v1. Probabilities cover 90 minutes only.
Upcoming match predictions
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
League phase · Matchday 5
Projected league-phase table
72 of 144 league-phase matches played. 10,000 simulations per remaining fixture.
| Proj. | Club | Now | P | GD | Pts | Exp. pts | Top 8 | 9–24 | Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 4 | +15 | 12 | 19.5 | 95% | 5% | 0% |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 2 | 4 | +6 | 12 | 19.9 | 96% | 4% | 0% |
| 3 | Arsenal | 3 | 4 | +5 | 10 | 19.3 | 95% | 6% | 0% |
| 4 | Barcelona | 5 | 4 | +8 | 9 | 17.0 | 75% | 25% | 0% |
| 5 | Bayern Munich | 13 | 4 | +7 | 8 | 16.9 | 75% | 25% | 0% |
| 6 | Manchester City | 7 | 4 | +5 | 9 | 16.9 | 70% | 30% | 0% |
| 7 | Liverpool | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 | 16.4 | 60% | 40% | 0% |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 6 | 4 | +6 | 9 | 16.0 | 57% | 43% | 0% |
| 9 | Como | 4 | 4 | +13 | 9 | 14.7 | 41% | 58% | 0% |
| 10 | Club Brugge | 9 | 4 | +4 | 9 | 14.5 | 30% | 69% | 1% |
| 11 | Inter Milan | 15 | 4 | +2 | 6 | 13.8 | 24% | 74% | 2% |
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund | 12 | 4 | +2 | 9 | 14.2 | 23% | 76% | 1% |
| 13 | Real Betis | 11 | 4 | +2 | 9 | 13.8 | 16% | 83% | 1% |
| 14 | Sporting CP | 10 | 4 | +4 | 9 | 13.5 | 18% | 80% | 3% |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 14 | 4 | +3 | 7 | 11.8 | 7% | 79% | 14% |
| 16 | Manchester United | 17 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 11.6 | 6% | 78% | 16% |
| 17 | Atletico Madrid | 23 | 4 | -1 | 4 | 11.5 | 5% | 80% | 15% |
| 18 | Roma | 20 | 4 | +2 | 4 | 10.0 | 2% | 68% | 30% |
| 19 | Galatasaray | 18 | 4 | -1 | 6 | 10.5 | 2% | 68% | 31% |
| 20 | Villarreal | 28 | 4 | -6 | 3 | 10.1 | 0% | 66% | 33% |
| 21 | Porto | 26 | 4 | -1 | 3 | 9.7 | 1% | 66% | 34% |
| 22 | Fenerbahçe | 19 | 4 | -5 | 5 | 10.0 | 1% | 57% | 42% |
| 23 | PSV | 24 | 4 | -1 | 4 | 9.6 | 1% | 59% | 40% |
| 24 | Bodø/Glimt | 25 | 4 | -5 | 4 | 9.6 | 1% | 55% | 44% |
| 25 | Napoli | 27 | 4 | -5 | 3 | 9.4 | 0% | 56% | 44% |
| 26 | RB Leipzig | 30 | 4 | -6 | 3 | 9.2 | 0% | 51% | 49% |
| 27 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 21 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 8.8 | 0% | 48% | 52% |
| 28 | LASK | 16 | 4 | +1 | 6 | 8.6 | 0% | 39% | 61% |
| 29 | Viking | 22 | 4 | -1 | 4 | 7.9 | 0% | 33% | 67% |
| 30 | Feyenoord | 32 | 4 | -7 | 3 | 8.2 | 0% | 34% | 66% |
| 31 | AEK Athens | 29 | 4 | -6 | 3 | 6.8 | 0% | 16% | 84% |
| 32 | Lille | 35 | 4 | -6 | 1 | 6.5 | 0% | 15% | 85% |
| 33 | Lens | 33 | 4 | -12 | 3 | 6.7 | 0% | 12% | 88% |
| 34 | Sabah | 31 | 4 | -6 | 3 | 4.2 | 0% | 1% | 99% |
| 35 | Slavia Prague | 34 | 4 | -4 | 1 | 3.2 | 0% | 1% | 99% |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 36 | 4 | -16 | 0 | 1.7 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
Top 8: round of 16 · 9–24: play-offs · 25–36: eliminated. Rankings use points, goal difference and goals scored; further ties are split randomly, not by UEFA’s remaining tie-breakers.
Record this season
13 of 18 fixed pre-match forecasts picked the correct result (72%). Log loss 0.766 against 0.997 for always predicting the historical home, draw and away shares (lower is better).
League phase · Matchday 4
League phase · Matchday 4
League phase · Matchday 4
League phase · Matchday 4
League phase · Matchday 4
League phase · Matchday 4
League phase · Matchday 4
League phase · Matchday 4
League phase · Matchday 4
All published match forecasts
All season forecasts · UTC dates · completed matches retain their pre-match probabilities.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Round | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP | League phase · Matchday 4 | 0–1 | |
| Galatasaray vs Stuttgart | League phase · Matchday 4 | 2–0 | |
| Feyenoord vs Inter Milan | League phase · Matchday 4 | 0–3 | |
| Barcelona vs Aston Villa | League phase · Matchday 4 | 3–0 | |
| Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich | League phase · Matchday 4 | 0–2 | |
| Villarreal vs Paris Saint-Germain | League phase · Matchday 4 | 0–6 | |
| Manchester United vs Roma | League phase · Matchday 4 | 3–2 | |
| Bodø/Glimt vs Lille | League phase · Matchday 4 | 0–0 | |
| LASK vs Slovan Bratislava | League phase · Matchday 4 | 4–0 | |
| AEK Athens vs Real Madrid | League phase · Matchday 4 | 2–3 | |
| Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool | League phase · Matchday 4 | 3–2 | |
| RB Leipzig vs Manchester City | League phase · Matchday 4 | 2–3 | |
| Slavia Prague vs Arsenal | League phase · Matchday 4 | 1–2 | |
| PSV vs Club Brugge | League phase · Matchday 4 | 1–2 | |
| Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis | League phase · Matchday 4 | 2–1 | |
| Porto vs Napoli | League phase · Matchday 4 | 4–1 | |
| Lens vs Como | League phase · Matchday 4 | 1–9 | |
| Viking vs Sabah | League phase · Matchday 4 | 4–1 | |
| Galatasaray vs Aston Villa | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Bodø/Glimt vs LASK | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Real Madrid vs PSV | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Manchester City vs Napoli | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Feyenoord vs Porto | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Slovan Bratislava vs Real Betis | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| RB Leipzig vs Lens | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Como vs AEK Athens | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Sabah vs Barcelona | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Slavia Prague vs Villarreal | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Inter Milan vs Stuttgart | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Atletico Madrid vs Viking | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Paris Saint-Germain vs Roma | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Club Brugge vs Liverpool | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Lille vs Bayern Munich | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Sporting CP vs Manchester United | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahçe | League phase · Matchday 5 | — | |
| Villarreal vs Sabah | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Viking vs Feyenoord | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Barcelona vs Manchester City | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Aston Villa vs Paris Saint-Germain | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Bayern Munich vs Slavia Prague | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Napoli vs Club Brugge | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Roma vs Sporting CP | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Manchester United vs RB Leipzig | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| AEK Athens vs Galatasaray | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Real Betis vs Como | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Slovan Bratislava vs Shakhtar Donetsk | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Arsenal vs Real Madrid | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Borussia Dortmund vs Inter Milan | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| PSV vs Atletico Madrid | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Liverpool vs Porto | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Lens vs Bodø/Glimt | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| LASK vs Fenerbahçe | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Stuttgart vs Lille | League phase · Matchday 6 | — | |
| Bodø/Glimt vs Atletico Madrid | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Galatasaray vs Feyenoord | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Real Madrid vs LASK | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Inter Milan vs Liverpool | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Stuttgart vs Club Brugge | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Aston Villa vs Borussia Dortmund | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| AEK Athens vs Roma | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Porto vs Slavia Prague | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Lille vs Slovan Bratislava | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Fenerbahçe vs Villarreal | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Sabah vs Napoli | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Lens vs Manchester City | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Sporting CP vs Barcelona | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Como vs Paris Saint-Germain | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Real Betis vs Arsenal | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Manchester United vs Bayern Munich | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Viking vs PSV | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| RB Leipzig vs Shakhtar Donetsk | League phase · Matchday 7 | — | |
| Shakhtar Donetsk vs Real Madrid | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| Manchester City vs Sporting CP | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| Slovan Bratislava vs Inter Milan | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| Barcelona vs Como | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| Atletico Madrid vs Fenerbahçe | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| Paris Saint-Germain vs Galatasaray | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| Liverpool vs Lens | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| Arsenal vs Sabah | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| Bayern Munich vs Real Betis | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| Club Brugge vs Bodø/Glimt | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| Borussia Dortmund vs AEK Athens | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| Slavia Prague vs Aston Villa | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| Roma vs Lille | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| LASK vs Porto | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| Villarreal vs Manchester United | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| PSV vs Stuttgart | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| Feyenoord vs RB Leipzig | League phase · Matchday 8 | — | |
| Napoli vs Viking | League phase · Matchday 8 | — |
Model and evidence
One rating scale combines domestic and European results. Recent matches carry more weight; forecasts cover 90 minutes.
Ratings, historical test and sources
Every club has one attack and one defence rating on a shared scale, fitted to domestic results from 22 leagues and to European results. Each club's rating is pulled towards its league's level, and each league's level is learned only from matches between leagues: European ties, plus promotion and relegation. Recent results count more; a result from a year ago counts half as much.
The average club of each league represented this season, against an average Premier League club on neutral ground:
| League | Win | Draw | Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| La Liga | 21% | 24% | 56% |
| Bundesliga | 20% | 23% | 57% |
| Serie A | 20% | 23% | 57% |
| Ligue 1 | 18% | 22% | 59% |
| Belgian Pro League | 12% | 19% | 69% |
| Eredivisie | 12% | 18% | 70% |
| Primeira Liga | 11% | 18% | 71% |
| Czech Republic (European results only) | 11% | 18% | 71% |
| Ukraine (European results only) | 9% | 15% | 76% |
| Azerbaijan (European results only) | 8% | 15% | 76% |
| Süper Lig | 8% | 15% | 77% |
| Eliteserien | 8% | 15% | 77% |
| Greek Super League | 7% | 13% | 80% |
| Austrian Bundesliga | 6% | 13% | 82% |
| Slovakia (European results only) | 4% | 9% | 87% |
League strength rankings, methodology and CSV →
How well did this model do on past European matches?
Before publishing, the model was tested walk-forward on 2,817 Champions League, Europa League and Conference League matches from 2016-17 to 2026-27, each forecast using only results available before kickoff. Its log loss was 0.942, against 0.982 for the same model without league levels and 1.051 for historical outcome shares. The improvement over the model without league levels was 0.041 (95% interval 0.030 to 0.051), and it held in each of three periods. On 1,426 Champions League matches alone the log loss was 0.914.
Limitations
- This season's Europa League and Conference League results enter the ratings from their league phases only; older European results count for less as they age.
- Injuries, rotation and two-legged tie situations are not modelled. Knockout probabilities are for 90 minutes, not for qualification.
- The model has not been compared with bookmaker prices. It was tested against simpler models only.
Sources: European results from openfootball (public domain), the current Champions League from football-data.org, domestic leagues from football-data.co.uk. Full methodology.