Europa League · League phase · Matchday 6

AZ Alkmaar vs Sturm Graz prediction

AZ Alkmaar

vsThu 10 Dec, 17:45 GMT

Sturm Graz

Latest model forecast55%24%22%

1 · AZ Alkmaar54.5%

X · Draw23.8%

2 · Sturm Graz21.7%

Forecast updated Thu 12 Nov, 04:19

Venue: AZ Stadion.

Goals and likely scores

Expected goals: 1.72 – 0.99model, not shot xG
Over 2.5 goals: 50.9%Under 49.1%
Both teams score: 51.6%No 48.4%

Most likely scores

1–011.4%

1–111.3%

2–09.8%

2–19.7%

0–06.6%

90 minutes only. Scores come from independent Poisson goal counts, which can slightly understate draws.

How do AZ Alkmaar and Sturm Graz compare?

Club	League	Attack	Goals conceded
AZ Alkmaar	Eredivisie	0.74×	1.40×
Sturm Graz	Austrian Bundesliga	0.59×	1.63×

Relative to an average Premier League club. Higher attack and lower goals conceded are stronger. Rating method.

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Updated 12 Nov 2026, 04:19 UTC · 90-minute probabilities.