Cross-league research · 2026-27
Football league strength rankings
Premier League has the highest estimated win probability among the 16 represented leagues: 36.8% against an average Premier League club on neutral ground over 90 minutes.
Model estimates for an average club from each represented league against an average Premier League club on neutral ground over 90 minutes. Not UEFA coefficients or an observed league table.
| Rank | League | Win | Draw | Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Premier League | 36.8% | 26.4% | 36.8% |
| 2 | La Liga | 20.6% | 23.5% | 55.9% |
| 3 | Bundesliga | 20.0% | 23.2% | 56.8% |
| 4 | Serie A | 19.7% | 23.1% | 57.3% |
| 5 | Ligue 1 | 18.2% | 22.4% | 59.4% |
| 6 | Belgian Pro League | 12.0% | 18.5% | 69.4% |
| 7 | Eredivisie | 11.6% | 18.2% | 70.3% |
| 8 | Primeira Liga | 11.3% | 17.9% | 70.8% |
| 9 | Czech Republic (European results only) | 11.0% | 17.7% | 71.3% |
| 10 | Ukraine (European results only) | 8.5% | 15.4% | 76.1% |
| 11 | Azerbaijan (European results only) | 8.4% | 15.3% | 76.3% |
| 12 | Süper Lig | 8.3% | 15.1% | 76.6% |
| 13 | Eliteserien | 7.9% | 14.7% | 77.4% |
| 14 | Greek Super League | 6.6% | 13.3% | 80.1% |
| 15 | Austrian Bundesliga | 6.0% | 12.5% | 81.5% |
| 16 | Slovakia (European results only) | 3.8% | 9.2% | 87.0% |
What does this ranking measure?
The model fits club attack and defence ratings on a shared scale using domestic results from 22 leagues and European cup results. League levels are learned from cross-league evidence, including European ties and promotion and relegation. Results from a year ago carry half the weight of current results.
The table includes only leagues represented in the current Champions League publication, sorted by win probability against the same Premier League reference. It is not a complete ranking of the 22 training leagues. An average club is the model’s league-level reference, not an average of Champions League entrants.
Home advantage is removed. Win, draw and loss probabilities cover 90 minutes and sum to approximately 100% after rounding. They do not describe qualification or trophy chances.
Limitations and sources
These estimates depend on the model and available cross-league results. They are not official UEFA coefficients, observed head-to-head win rates, or proof that every club in one league is stronger than every club in another. Ranking uncertainty is not quantified in this publication.
Recent cross-league evidence comes from the Champions League; the current Europa League and Conference League are not included. Injuries, rotation and two-legged tie situations are not modelled. The model has not been compared with bookmaker prices.
Sources: domestic results from football-data.co.uk, historical European results from openfootball, and current Champions League fixtures and results from football-data.org. The CSV includes the publication timestamp, model version and source URL.
Model methodology and backtest · Champions League predictions · All research