Serie A · independent league model
Does Home Advantage Still Matter in the Serie A?
Home teams won 40.0% of 440 matches.
440 completed matches across 2025-26, 2026-27.
| Season | Matches | Home wins | Draws | Away wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 380 | 148 | 99 | 133 |
| 2026-27 | 60 | 28 | 12 | 20 |
- Results up to
- 2026-10-12
- Matches used
- 440
- Data source
- Project database
- Method
- Home win share of finished Serie A matches; no odds required.
- 95% range
- 0.354 – 0.446
- Limitations
- One published sample. This is not a betting recommendation.
Sources and limitations
Fixtures, results and provider standings: football-data.org. Completed score history since 2020-21: OpenFootball and football-data.org. Forecasts use only results available before their publication time.
Older archive records without a verified timezone use the end of the match date in UTC. Recent seasons use exact football-data.org timestamps. This keeps historical results out of training until their conservative availability time.
No verified injury or confirmed-lineup adjustment is included for Serie A. Promotion playoffs and promotion probabilities are outside this model. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Check this league's model record.