Guide · updated 2026-10-15
How home advantage and scoring compare across six leagues
Home advantage is one of the most persistent patterns in football, but it is neither constant over time nor identical across European competitions. Comparing six leagues over the same seasons shows how home wins, draws and goal totals diverge.
Six leagues compared (2005-06, 2006-07, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2009-10, 2010-11, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16, 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26, 2026-27)
Over the shared recorded seasons, every completed regular-season match is weighted equally. Full season-by-season charts are available in our home advantage trends study and goals and over 2.5 trends study.
| League | Matches | Home win | Draw | Away win | Goals / match | Over 2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 8,040 | 45.5% | 24.4% | 30.1% | 2.74 | 52.3% | 51.4% |
| Bundesliga | 6,471 | 44.7% | 25.0% | 30.3% | 2.98 | 57.3% | 56.9% |
| Championship | 11,711 | 43.4% | 27.3% | 29.3% | 2.56 | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| La Liga | 8,058 | 46.7% | 25.0% | 28.3% | 2.67 | 49.3% | 50.9% |
| Ligue 1 | 7,711 | 44.5% | 27.2% | 28.3% | 2.54 | 46.8% | 49.9% |
| Serie A | 8,040 | 44.3% | 26.4% | 29.3% | 2.67 | 50.0% | 52.7% |
How the model separates team strength from venue
In each league's Dixon–Coles model, every club has an attack rating and a defence rating estimated from finished matches, while a league-specific home-advantage parameter raises the home team's expected goals across all fixtures in that competition. Because each club plays every opponent both home and away over a full season, the model can distinguish a strong team from the general uplift of playing at home.
Explore each league's predictions and research
Visit the research hub to download the cross-league CSV dataset, or browse upcoming predictions for the Premier League, Championship, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1.
Common questions
What percentage of football matches do home teams win?
Across the shared recorded seasons (2005-06, 2006-07, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2009-10, 2010-11, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16, 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26, 2026-27), observed home win rates across our six covered leagues ranged from 43.4% to 46.7%.
Why does our site train a separate model for each league?
Scoring environments, draw frequencies and home-advantage uplifts differ between the Premier League, Championship, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1. Fitting each competition separately prevents one league's baseline from distorting another's probabilities.
Does a higher home win rate prove a stronger crowd effect?
No. Observed league-wide home win percentages reflect venue advantage alongside competitive balance and scheduling. Only a model that controls for team attack and defence ratings isolates the home-advantage multiplier.
More guides
Probabilities are not guarantees and nothing here is betting advice. Responsible gambling.