Championship · Gameweek 14
Queens Park Rangers vs Burnley Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Burnley 46.2%
Our Championship record: the most likely result happened in 0 of 1 predictions (0%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Queens Park Rangers vs Burnley: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 54.7% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 50.0% in the model.
Queens Park Rangers are 7th on 14 points after 9 matches; Burnley are 22nd on 7. In 18 Championship meetings since 2005-06, Queens Park Rangers won 3, Burnley won 9 and 6 were drawn. They last met on 26 Apr 2025: Queens Park Rangers 0–5 Burnley. In their last 5 league matches Queens Park Rangers won 0 and Burnley won 1.
Home and away form
Queens Park Rangers at home
4 played · 1W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Preston North End · 2–2 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Middlesbrough · 0–1 (L)
- 2 Sept 2026 · Cardiff City · 2–1 (W)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 0–0 (D)
Burnley away
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 2.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Watford · 4–0 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Swansea City · 1–3 (L)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Wrexham · 1–1 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Norwich City · 1–4 (L)
- 23 Aug 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 1–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Queens Park Rangers vs Burnley: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45.3%Under 54.7%
- Both teams score
- 50.0%No 50.0%
- Predicted goals
- 1.04 – 1.45Total 2.49 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 23% · 36%Queens Park Rangers · Burnley
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71.6% | 28.4% |
| 2.5 | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| 3.5 | 24.0% | 76.0% |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Interactive score model explorer
Queens Park Rangers vs Burnley: explore the scoreline grid
Starts from the model's published expected goals for this match. Move the sliders to test how a stronger or weaker side changes every scoreline, the result probabilities and the over/under and both-teams-to-score figures.
Published model: 26.4% · 27.4% · 46.2% — this grid is rebuilt from the published expected goals and matches them to within about half a percentage point.
- Queens Park Rangers win
- 26.6%
- Draw
- 27.4%
- Burnley win
- 46.0%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45.4%Under 54.6%
- Both teams score
- 50.0%No 50.0%
- Clean sheet
- 23% · 35%Queens Park Rangers · Burnley
Scoreline probability grid
1–1 13.0% · most likely
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.5 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 13.0 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Select a scoreline to see what that result would do to the Championship season outlook.
Draws (diagonal) Most likely scoreBelow the diagonal: queens park rangers wins · above: burnley wins
Cells show percent. The 0–5 grid covers 99.5% of the probability mass; the outcome totals above sum over the full 0–12 goal grid so they add to 100.0%. Darker cells are more likely.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Queens Park Rangers to score 1.04 goals and Burnley 1.45. Its ratings have Queens Park Rangers scoring at 0.95 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.07 times, against 1.18 and 0.76 for Burnley. How the model works.
Questions about Queens Park Rangers vs Burnley
Who is the favourite in Queens Park Rangers vs Burnley?
Our model's most likely result is Burnley win at 46.2%. Full probabilities: Queens Park Rangers 26.4%, draw 27.4%, Burnley 46.2%.
What is the most likely score in Queens Park Rangers vs Burnley?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.0%. The model expects 1.04 goals for Queens Park Rangers and 1.45 for Burnley.
Will Queens Park Rangers vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 45.3% and both teams to score 50.0%.
Probabilities come from a statistical score model and describe uncertainty, not guaranteed outcomes.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-20
- Matches used
- 6,575
- Model version
- dc-v4-04c55e482412
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →