Championship · Gameweek 12
Lincoln City vs Burnley Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Burnley 45.1%
Prediction probabilities
Lincoln City vs Burnley: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 63.2% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 57.2% in the model.
Lincoln City are 17th on 11 points after 9 matches; Burnley are 21st on 8. In their last 5 league matches Lincoln City won 2 and Burnley won 1.
Home and away form
Lincoln City at home
4 played · 0W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Swansea City · 1–2 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Southampton · 1–1 (D)
- 1 Sept 2026 · Blackburn Rovers · 0–0 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Portsmouth · 1–3 (L)
Burnley away
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 2.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Watford · 4–0 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Swansea City · 1–3 (L)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Wrexham · 1–1 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Norwich City · 1–4 (L)
- 23 Aug 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 1–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 36.8%Under 63.2%
- Both teams score
- 42.8%No 57.2%
- Predicted goals
- 0.89 – 1.28Total 2.16 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 28% · 41%Lincoln City · Burnley
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64.1% | 35.9% |
| 2.5 | 36.8% | 63.2% |
| 3.5 | 17.4% | 82.6% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Lincoln City to score 0.89 goals and Burnley 1.28. Its ratings have Lincoln City scoring at 0.78 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.93 times, against 1.18 and 0.79 for Burnley. How the model works.
Questions about Lincoln City vs Burnley
Who is the favourite in Lincoln City vs Burnley?
Our model's most likely result is Burnley win at 45.1%. Full probabilities: Lincoln City 25.4%, draw 29.5%, Burnley 45.1%.
What is the most likely score in Lincoln City vs Burnley?
0–1 is the single most likely score at 14.3%. The model expects 0.89 goals for Lincoln City and 1.28 for Burnley.
Will Lincoln City vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 36.8% and both teams to score 42.8%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 3,427
- Model version
- dc-v4-7dc9466ef45e
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.