Championship · Gameweek 14
Derby County vs Norwich City Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Derby County 39.5%
Our Championship record: the most likely result happened in 0 of 1 predictions (0%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Derby County vs Norwich City: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 53.8% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 57.8% in the model.
Derby County are 23rd on 6 points after 9 matches; Norwich City are 19th on 9. In 22 Championship meetings since 2005-06, Derby County won 9, Norwich City won 7 and 6 were drawn. They last met on 21 Apr 2026: Norwich City 2–1 Derby County. In their last 5 league matches Derby County won 0 and Norwich City won 2.
Home and away form
Derby County at home
5 played · 0W · 2D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Wrexham · 1–1 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Birmingham City · 1–2 (L)
- 9 Sept 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 0–1 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Swansea City · 0–3 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Cardiff City · 2–2 (D)
Norwich City away
5 played · 1W · 0D · 4L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 2.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Swansea City · 1–2 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Middlesbrough · 3–4 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Sheffield United · 3–1 (W)
- 1 Sept 2026 · Stoke City · 0–1 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Millwall · 0–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Derby County vs Norwich City: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53.8%Under 46.2%
- Both teams score
- 57.8%No 42.3%
- Predicted goals
- 1.47 – 1.36Total 2.83 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 26% · 23%Derby County · Norwich City
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77.9% | 22.1% |
| 2.5 | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| 3.5 | 31.5% | 68.5% |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Interactive score model explorer
Derby County vs Norwich City: explore the scoreline grid
Starts from the model's published expected goals for this match. Move the sliders to test how a stronger or weaker side changes every scoreline, the result probabilities and the over/under and both-teams-to-score figures.
Published model: 39.5% · 26.1% · 34.4% — this grid is rebuilt from the published expected goals and matches them to within about half a percentage point.
- Derby County win
- 39.5%
- Draw
- 26.0%
- Norwich City win
- 34.5%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53.8%Under 46.2%
- Both teams score
- 57.7%No 42.3%
- Clean sheet
- 26% · 23%Derby County · Norwich City
Scoreline probability grid
1–1 12.3% · most likely
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Select a scoreline to see what that result would do to the Championship season outlook.
Draws (diagonal) Most likely scoreBelow the diagonal: derby county wins · above: norwich city wins
Cells show percent. The 0–5 grid covers 99.3% of the probability mass; the outcome totals above sum over the full 0–12 goal grid so they add to 100.0%. Darker cells are more likely.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Derby County to score 1.47 goals and Norwich City 1.36. Its ratings have Derby County scoring at 0.96 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.00 times, against 1.18 and 1.07 for Norwich City. How the model works.
Questions about Derby County vs Norwich City
Who is the favourite in Derby County vs Norwich City?
Our model's most likely result is Derby County win at 39.5%. Full probabilities: Derby County 39.5%, draw 26.1%, Norwich City 34.4%.
What is the most likely score in Derby County vs Norwich City?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.3%. The model expects 1.47 goals for Derby County and 1.36 for Norwich City.
Will Derby County vs Norwich City have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 53.8% and both teams to score 57.8%.
Probabilities come from a statistical score model and describe uncertainty, not guaranteed outcomes.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-21
- Matches used
- 6,575
- Model version
- dc-v4-a4d2dbda299a
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →