Championship · Gameweek 12
Sheffield United vs Derby County Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Sheffield United 49.0%
Prediction probabilities
Sheffield United vs Derby County: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 52.2% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 51.1% in the model.
Sheffield United are 15th on 12 points after 9 matches; Derby County are 23rd on 6. In 6 Championship meetings since 2021-22, Sheffield United won 4, Derby County won 2 and none were drawn. They last met on 2 May 2026: Derby County 1–2 Sheffield United. In their last 5 league matches Sheffield United won 2 and Derby County won 0.
Home and away form
Sheffield United at home
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Lincoln City · 3–0 (W)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Wolverhampton · 0–1 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Norwich City · 1–3 (L)
- 1 Sept 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 3–2 (W)
- 15 Aug 2026 · Birmingham City · 0–0 (D)
Derby County away
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Burnley · 1–1 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · West Ham · 0–3 (L)
- 1 Sept 2026 · Portsmouth · 2–0 (W)
- 15 Aug 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 1–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47.8%Under 52.2%
- Both teams score
- 51.1%No 48.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.55 – 1.03Total 2.58 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 36% · 21%Sheffield United · Derby County
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73.4% | 26.6% |
| 2.5 | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| 3.5 | 26.1% | 73.9% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Sheffield United to score 1.55 goals and Derby County 1.03. Its ratings have Sheffield United scoring at 1.08 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.93 times, against 0.96 and 1.00 for Derby County. How the model works.
Questions about Sheffield United vs Derby County
Who is the favourite in Sheffield United vs Derby County?
Our model's most likely result is Sheffield United win at 49.0%. Full probabilities: Sheffield United 49.0%, draw 26.2%, Derby County 24.8%.
What is the most likely score in Sheffield United vs Derby County?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.5%. The model expects 1.55 goals for Sheffield United and 1.03 for Derby County.
Will Sheffield United vs Derby County have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 47.8% and both teams to score 51.1%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 3,427
- Model version
- dc-v4-7dc9466ef45e
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.