Championship · Gameweek 14
Blackburn Rovers vs Stoke City Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Blackburn Rovers 41.5%
Our Championship record: the most likely result happened in 0 of 1 predictions (0%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Blackburn Rovers vs Stoke City: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 60.9% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 54.3% in the model.
Blackburn Rovers are 13th on 12 points after 9 matches; Stoke City are 4th on 16. In 16 Championship meetings since 2018-19, Blackburn Rovers won 5, Stoke City won 7 and 4 were drawn. They last met on 11 Apr 2026: Stoke City 1–1 Blackburn Rovers. In their last 5 league matches Blackburn Rovers won 2 and Stoke City won 4.
Home and away form
Blackburn Rovers at home
5 played · 3W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Cardiff City · 2–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Millwall · 3–1 (W)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Sheffield United · 1–2 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Queens Park Rangers · 1–2 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Middlesbrough · 2–1 (W)
Stoke City away
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 2–1 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Watford · 2–1 (W)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Cardiff City · 1–1 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Wolverhampton · 1–4 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Southampton · 1–3 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Blackburn Rovers vs Stoke City: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39.1%Under 60.9%
- Both teams score
- 45.7%No 54.3%
- Predicted goals
- 1.25 – 1.00Total 2.25 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 37% · 29%Blackburn Rovers · Stoke City
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66.3% | 33.7% |
| 2.5 | 39.1% | 60.9% |
| 3.5 | 19.1% | 80.9% |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Interactive score model explorer
Blackburn Rovers vs Stoke City: explore the scoreline grid
Starts from the model's published expected goals for this match. Move the sliders to test how a stronger or weaker side changes every scoreline, the result probabilities and the over/under and both-teams-to-score figures.
Published model: 41.5% · 29.6% · 28.9% — this grid is rebuilt from the published expected goals and matches them to within about half a percentage point.
- Blackburn Rovers win
- 41.5%
- Draw
- 29.5%
- Stoke City win
- 29.0%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39.1%Under 60.9%
- Both teams score
- 45.6%No 54.4%
- Clean sheet
- 37% · 29%Blackburn Rovers · Stoke City
Scoreline probability grid
1–1 13.7% · most likely
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.7 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Select a scoreline to see what that result would do to the Championship season outlook.
Draws (diagonal) Most likely scoreBelow the diagonal: blackburn rovers wins · above: stoke city wins
Cells show percent. The 0–5 grid covers 99.8% of the probability mass; the outcome totals above sum over the full 0–12 goal grid so they add to 100.0%. Darker cells are more likely.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Blackburn Rovers to score 1.25 goals and Stoke City 1.00. Its ratings have Blackburn Rovers scoring at 0.88 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.96 times, against 0.90 and 1.00 for Stoke City. How the model works.
Questions about Blackburn Rovers vs Stoke City
Who is the favourite in Blackburn Rovers vs Stoke City?
Our model's most likely result is Blackburn Rovers win at 41.5%. Full probabilities: Blackburn Rovers 41.5%, draw 29.6%, Stoke City 28.9%.
What is the most likely score in Blackburn Rovers vs Stoke City?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.8%. The model expects 1.25 goals for Blackburn Rovers and 1.00 for Stoke City.
Will Blackburn Rovers vs Stoke City have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 39.1% and both teams to score 45.7%.
Probabilities come from a statistical score model and describe uncertainty, not guaranteed outcomes.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-21
- Matches used
- 6,575
- Model version
- dc-v4-a4d2dbda299a
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →