Championship · Gameweek 12
Stoke City vs Bristol City Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Stoke City 39.6%
Prediction probabilities
Stoke City vs Bristol City: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 56.6% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 50.6% in the model.
Stoke City are 7th on 16 points after 10 matches; Bristol City are 12th on 14. In 12 Championship meetings since 2020-21, Stoke City won 5, Bristol City won 6 and 1 was drawn. They last met on 2 May 2026: Bristol City 2–0 Stoke City. In their last 5 league matches Stoke City won 3 and Bristol City won 1.
Home and away form
Stoke City at home
5 played · 3W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 13 Oct 2026 · Middlesbrough · 2–3 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Sheffield United · 2–1 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 4–0 (W)
- 1 Sept 2026 · Norwich City · 1–0 (W)
- 15 Aug 2026 · Swansea City · 1–2 (L)
Bristol City away
5 played · 2W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 1–1 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Southampton · 1–4 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Burnley · 2–1 (W)
- 1 Sept 2026 · Preston North End · 3–1 (W)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Birmingham City · 2–2 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43.4%Under 56.6%
- Both teams score
- 49.4%No 50.6%
- Predicted goals
- 1.29 – 1.13Total 2.41 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 32% · 28%Stoke City · Bristol City
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69.9% | 30.1% |
| 2.5 | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| 3.5 | 22.4% | 77.6% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Stoke City to score 1.29 goals and Bristol City 1.13. Its ratings have Stoke City scoring at 0.91 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.01 times, against 0.96 and 0.99 for Bristol City. How the model works.
Questions about Stoke City vs Bristol City
Who is the favourite in Stoke City vs Bristol City?
Our model's most likely result is Stoke City win at 39.6%. Full probabilities: Stoke City 39.6%, draw 28.3%, Bristol City 32.1%.
What is the most likely score in Stoke City vs Bristol City?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.4%. The model expects 1.29 goals for Stoke City and 1.13 for Bristol City.
Will Stoke City vs Bristol City have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 43.4% and both teams to score 49.4%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 3,427
- Model version
- dc-v4-7dc9466ef45e
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.