Championship · Gameweek 14
Watford vs Lincoln City Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Watford 39.9%
Our Championship record: the most likely result happened in 0 of 1 predictions (0%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Watford vs Lincoln City: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 64.5% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 57.2% in the model.
Watford are 20th on 8 points after 9 matches; Lincoln City are 16th on 11. In their last 5 league matches Watford won 1 and Lincoln City won 2.
Home and away form
Watford at home
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Burnley · 0–4 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Stoke City · 1–2 (L)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Preston North End · 2–1 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · West Ham · 1–1 (D)
- 16 Aug 2026 · Southampton · 2–1 (W)
Lincoln City away
5 played · 3W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Sheffield United · 0–3 (L)
- 15 Sept 2026 · Bristol City · 1–0 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Preston North End · 1–0 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 1–0 (W)
- 15 Aug 2026 · Middlesbrough · 1–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Watford vs Lincoln City: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 35.5%Under 64.5%
- Both teams score
- 42.8%No 57.2%
- Predicted goals
- 1.16 – 0.95Total 2.12 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 38% · 31%Watford · Lincoln City
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| 2.5 | 35.5% | 64.5% |
| 3.5 | 16.4% | 83.6% |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Interactive score model explorer
Watford vs Lincoln City: explore the scoreline grid
Starts from the model's published expected goals for this match. Move the sliders to test how a stronger or weaker side changes every scoreline, the result probabilities and the over/under and both-teams-to-score figures.
Published model: 39.9% · 30.8% · 29.4% — this grid is rebuilt from the published expected goals and matches them to within about half a percentage point.
- Watford win
- 40.0%
- Draw
- 30.7%
- Lincoln City win
- 29.3%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 35.3%Under 64.7%
- Both teams score
- 42.6%No 57.4%
- Clean sheet
- 39% · 31%Watford · Lincoln City
Scoreline probability grid
1–1 13.9% · most likely
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.9 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Select a scoreline to see what that result would do to the Championship season outlook.
Draws (diagonal) Most likely scoreBelow the diagonal: watford wins · above: lincoln city wins
Cells show percent. The 0–5 grid covers 99.8% of the probability mass; the outcome totals above sum over the full 0–12 goal grid so they add to 100.0%. Darker cells are more likely.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Watford to score 1.16 goals and Lincoln City 0.95. Its ratings have Watford scoring at 0.87 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.06 times, against 0.78 and 0.94 for Lincoln City. How the model works.
Questions about Watford vs Lincoln City
Who is the favourite in Watford vs Lincoln City?
Our model's most likely result is Watford win at 39.9%. Full probabilities: Watford 39.9%, draw 30.8%, Lincoln City 29.4%.
What is the most likely score in Watford vs Lincoln City?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.9%. The model expects 1.16 goals for Watford and 0.95 for Lincoln City.
Will Watford vs Lincoln City have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 35.5% and both teams to score 42.8%.
Probabilities come from a statistical score model and describe uncertainty, not guaranteed outcomes.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-21
- Matches used
- 6,575
- Model version
- dc-v4-a4d2dbda299a
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →