Championship · Gameweek 14
Charlton Athletic vs Bolton Wanderers Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Charlton Athletic 42.6%
Our Championship record: the most likely result happened in 0 of 1 predictions (0%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Charlton Athletic vs Bolton Wanderers: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 54.3% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 51.0% in the model.
Charlton Athletic are 12th on 13 points after 9 matches; Bolton Wanderers are 17th on 10. In 8 Championship meetings since 2012-13, Charlton Athletic won 2, Bolton Wanderers won 1 and 5 were drawn. They last met on 19 Apr 2016: Bolton Wanderers 0–0 Charlton Athletic. In their last 5 league matches Charlton Athletic won 0 and Bolton Wanderers won 2.
Home and away form
Charlton Athletic at home
5 played · 2W · 3D · 0L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 0.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Bristol City · 1–1 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Portsmouth · 0–0 (D)
- 9 Sept 2026 · Queens Park Rangers · 0–0 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Preston North End · 1–0 (W)
- 15 Aug 2026 · Derby County · 2–1 (W)
Bolton Wanderers away
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.5 scored · 2.5 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Norwich City · 4–3 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Millwall · 0–4 (L)
- 1 Sept 2026 · Sheffield United · 2–3 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Queens Park Rangers · 0–0 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Charlton Athletic vs Bolton Wanderers: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45.7%Under 54.3%
- Both teams score
- 51.0%No 49.0%
- Predicted goals
- 1.39 – 1.12Total 2.50 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 33% · 25%Charlton Athletic · Bolton Wanderers
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71.9% | 28.1% |
| 2.5 | 45.7% | 54.3% |
| 3.5 | 24.4% | 75.7% |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Interactive score model explorer
Charlton Athletic vs Bolton Wanderers: explore the scoreline grid
Starts from the model's published expected goals for this match. Move the sliders to test how a stronger or weaker side changes every scoreline, the result probabilities and the over/under and both-teams-to-score figures.
Published model: 42.6% · 27.8% · 29.6% — this grid is rebuilt from the published expected goals and matches them to within about half a percentage point.
- Charlton Athletic win
- 42.4%
- Draw
- 27.9%
- Bolton Wanderers win
- 29.6%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45.9%Under 54.1%
- Both teams score
- 51.2%No 48.8%
- Clean sheet
- 33% · 25%Charlton Athletic · Bolton Wanderers
Scoreline probability grid
1–1 13.3% · most likely
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Select a scoreline to see what that result would do to the Championship season outlook.
Draws (diagonal) Most likely scoreBelow the diagonal: charlton athletic wins · above: bolton wanderers wins
Cells show percent. The 0–5 grid covers 99.6% of the probability mass; the outcome totals above sum over the full 0–12 goal grid so they add to 100.0%. Darker cells are more likely.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Charlton Athletic to score 1.39 goals and Bolton Wanderers 1.12. Its ratings have Charlton Athletic scoring at 0.77 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.97 times, against 0.99 and 1.27 for Bolton Wanderers. How the model works.
Questions about Charlton Athletic vs Bolton Wanderers
Who is the favourite in Charlton Athletic vs Bolton Wanderers?
Our model's most likely result is Charlton Athletic win at 42.6%. Full probabilities: Charlton Athletic 42.6%, draw 27.8%, Bolton Wanderers 29.6%.
What is the most likely score in Charlton Athletic vs Bolton Wanderers?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.2%. The model expects 1.39 goals for Charlton Athletic and 1.12 for Bolton Wanderers.
Will Charlton Athletic vs Bolton Wanderers have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 45.7% and both teams to score 51.0%.
Probabilities come from a statistical score model and describe uncertainty, not guaranteed outcomes.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-21
- Matches used
- 6,575
- Model version
- dc-v4-a4d2dbda299a
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →