Championship · Gameweek 12
Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Middlesbrough 43.7%
Prediction probabilities
Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 60.7% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 62.7% in the model.
Bolton Wanderers are 14th on 13 points after 10 matches; Middlesbrough are 2nd on 21. In their last 5 league matches Bolton Wanderers won 3 and Middlesbrough won 3.
Home and away form
Bolton Wanderers at home
5 played · 2W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Stoke City · 1–2 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Cardiff City · 1–0 (W)
- 8 Sept 2026 · West Ham · 2–3 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Lincoln City · 0–1 (L)
- 15 Aug 2026 · Preston North End · 2–1 (W)
Middlesbrough away
5 played · 2W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 13 Oct 2026 · Stoke City · 3–2 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Birmingham City · 2–2 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Queens Park Rangers · 1–0 (W)
- 2 Sept 2026 · Burnley · 1–1 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Blackburn Rovers · 1–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60.7%Under 39.3%
- Both teams score
- 62.7%No 37.3%
- Predicted goals
- 1.44 – 1.70Total 3.14 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 18% · 24%Bolton Wanderers · Middlesbrough
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82.4% | 17.6% |
| 2.5 | 60.7% | 39.3% |
| 3.5 | 38.4% | 61.6% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Bolton Wanderers to score 1.44 goals and Middlesbrough 1.70. Its ratings have Bolton Wanderers scoring at 1.09 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.20 times, against 1.22 and 0.92 for Middlesbrough. How the model works.
Questions about Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough
Who is the favourite in Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough?
Our model's most likely result is Middlesbrough win at 43.7%. Full probabilities: Bolton Wanderers 32.2%, draw 24.2%, Middlesbrough 43.7%.
What is the most likely score in Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 10.9%. The model expects 1.44 goals for Bolton Wanderers and 1.70 for Middlesbrough.
Will Bolton Wanderers vs Middlesbrough have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 60.7% and both teams to score 62.7%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 3,427
- Model version
- dc-v4-7dc9466ef45e
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.