Championship · Gameweek 14
Portsmouth vs Swansea City Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Swansea City 36.9%
Our Championship record: the most likely result happened in 0 of 1 predictions (0%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Portsmouth vs Swansea City: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 53.9% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 51.9% in the model.
Portsmouth are 18th on 9 points after 8 matches; Swansea City are 1st on 20. In 6 Championship meetings since 2010-11, Portsmouth won 2, Swansea City won 2 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 10 Mar 2026: Portsmouth 1–2 Swansea City. In their last 5 league matches Portsmouth won 1 and Swansea City won 3.
Home and away form
Portsmouth at home
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Blackburn Rovers · 2–2 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Cardiff City · 2–0 (W)
- 1 Sept 2026 · Derby County · 0–2 (L)
- 15 Aug 2026 · Queens Park Rangers · 1–3 (L)
- 2 May 2026 · Birmingham City · 1–1 (D)
Swansea City away
4 played · 3W · 0D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Lincoln City · 2–1 (W)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Southampton · 1–3 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Derby County · 3–0 (W)
- 15 Aug 2026 · Stoke City · 2–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Portsmouth vs Swansea City: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46.1%Under 53.9%
- Both teams score
- 51.9%No 48.1%
- Predicted goals
- 1.24 – 1.28Total 2.52 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 28% · 29%Portsmouth · Swansea City
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72.2% | 27.8% |
| 2.5 | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| 3.5 | 24.6% | 75.3% |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Interactive score model explorer
Portsmouth vs Swansea City: explore the scoreline grid
Starts from the model's published expected goals for this match. Move the sliders to test how a stronger or weaker side changes every scoreline, the result probabilities and the over/under and both-teams-to-score figures.
Published model: 35.1% · 28.0% · 36.9% — this grid is rebuilt from the published expected goals and matches them to within about half a percentage point.
- Portsmouth win
- 35.1%
- Draw
- 27.9%
- Swansea City win
- 37.0%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46.1%Under 53.9%
- Both teams score
- 51.8%No 48.2%
- Clean sheet
- 28% · 29%Portsmouth · Swansea City
Scoreline probability grid
1–1 13.3% · most likely
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 13.3 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Select a scoreline to see what that result would do to the Championship season outlook.
Draws (diagonal) Most likely scoreBelow the diagonal: portsmouth wins · above: swansea city wins
Cells show percent. The 0–5 grid covers 99.6% of the probability mass; the outcome totals above sum over the full 0–12 goal grid so they add to 100.0%. Darker cells are more likely.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Portsmouth to score 1.24 goals and Swansea City 1.28. Its ratings have Portsmouth scoring at 0.92 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.10 times, against 1.01 and 0.94 for Swansea City. How the model works.
Questions about Portsmouth vs Swansea City
Who is the favourite in Portsmouth vs Swansea City?
Our model's most likely result is Swansea City win at 36.9%. Full probabilities: Portsmouth 35.1%, draw 28.0%, Swansea City 36.9%.
What is the most likely score in Portsmouth vs Swansea City?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.3%. The model expects 1.24 goals for Portsmouth and 1.28 for Swansea City.
Will Portsmouth vs Swansea City have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 46.1% and both teams to score 51.9%.
Probabilities come from a statistical score model and describe uncertainty, not guaranteed outcomes.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-21
- Matches used
- 6,575
- Model version
- dc-v4-a4d2dbda299a
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →