Championship · Gameweek 12
Portsmouth vs Millwall Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Millwall 38.5%
Prediction probabilities
Portsmouth vs Millwall: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 57.4% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 51.2% in the model.
Portsmouth are 20th on 8 points after 8 matches; Millwall are 11th on 14. In 4 Championship meetings since 2024-25, Portsmouth won 2, Millwall won 2 and none were drawn. They last met on 21 Feb 2026: Millwall 1–3 Portsmouth. In their last 5 league matches Portsmouth won 1 and Millwall won 1.
Home and away form
Portsmouth at home
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Blackburn Rovers · 2–2 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Cardiff City · 2–0 (W)
- 1 Sept 2026 · Derby County · 0–2 (L)
- 15 Aug 2026 · Queens Park Rangers · 1–3 (L)
- 2 May 2026 · Birmingham City · 1–1 (D)
Millwall away
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Preston North End · 1–0 (W)
- 15 Sept 2026 · Middlesbrough · 2–2 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Blackburn Rovers · 1–3 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Southampton · 1–5 (L)
- 15 Aug 2026 · Bristol City · 2–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42.6%Under 57.4%
- Both teams score
- 48.8%No 51.2%
- Predicted goals
- 1.13 – 1.25Total 2.38 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 29% · 32%Portsmouth · Millwall
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69.2% | 30.8% |
| 2.5 | 42.6% | 57.4% |
| 3.5 | 21.8% | 78.2% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Portsmouth to score 1.13 goals and Millwall 1.25. Its ratings have Portsmouth scoring at 0.90 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.09 times, against 0.99 and 0.88 for Millwall. How the model works.
Questions about Portsmouth vs Millwall
Who is the favourite in Portsmouth vs Millwall?
Our model's most likely result is Millwall win at 38.5%. Full probabilities: Portsmouth 32.9%, draw 28.6%, Millwall 38.5%.
What is the most likely score in Portsmouth vs Millwall?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.5%. The model expects 1.13 goals for Portsmouth and 1.25 for Millwall.
Will Portsmouth vs Millwall have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 42.6% and both teams to score 48.8%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 3,427
- Model version
- dc-v4-7dc9466ef45e
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.