Championship · Gameweek 14
Preston North End vs Sheffield United Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Sheffield United 41.0%
Our Championship record: the most likely result happened in 0 of 1 predictions (0%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Preston North End vs Sheffield United: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 53.5% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 51.9% in the model.
Preston North End are 24th on 4 points after 9 matches; Sheffield United are 14th on 12. In 22 Championship meetings since 2005-06, Preston North End won 7, Sheffield United won 10 and 5 were drawn. They last met on 25 Apr 2026: Sheffield United 2–3 Preston North End. In their last 5 league matches Preston North End won 1 and Sheffield United won 2.
Home and away form
Preston North End at home
5 played · 1W · 0D · 4L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Millwall · 0–1 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Lincoln City · 0–1 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Blackburn Rovers · 2–1 (W)
- 1 Sept 2026 · Bristol City · 1–3 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Wolverhampton · 1–3 (L)
Sheffield United away
5 played · 2W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Stoke City · 1–2 (L)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Blackburn Rovers · 2–1 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Cardiff City · 2–2 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Swansea City · 0–0 (D)
- 2 May 2026 · Derby County · 2–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Preston North End vs Sheffield United: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46.5%Under 53.5%
- Both teams score
- 51.9%No 48.1%
- Predicted goals
- 1.16 – 1.37Total 2.53 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 25% · 31%Preston North End · Sheffield United
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72.5% | 27.5% |
| 2.5 | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| 3.5 | 25.0% | 75.0% |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Interactive score model explorer
Preston North End vs Sheffield United: explore the scoreline grid
Starts from the model's published expected goals for this match. Move the sliders to test how a stronger or weaker side changes every scoreline, the result probabilities and the over/under and both-teams-to-score figures.
Published model: 31.3% · 27.7% · 41.0% — this grid is rebuilt from the published expected goals and matches them to within about half a percentage point.
- Preston North End win
- 31.2%
- Draw
- 27.6%
- Sheffield United win
- 41.1%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46.4%Under 53.6%
- Both teams score
- 51.7%No 48.3%
- Clean sheet
- 25% · 31%Preston North End · Sheffield United
Scoreline probability grid
1–1 13.2% · most likely
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 13.2 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Select a scoreline to see what that result would do to the Championship season outlook.
Draws (diagonal) Most likely scoreBelow the diagonal: preston north end wins · above: sheffield united wins
Cells show percent. The 0–5 grid covers 99.6% of the probability mass; the outcome totals above sum over the full 0–12 goal grid so they add to 100.0%. Darker cells are more likely.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Preston North End to score 1.16 goals and Sheffield United 1.37. Its ratings have Preston North End scoring at 0.87 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.09 times, against 1.09 and 0.93 for Sheffield United. How the model works.
Questions about Preston North End vs Sheffield United
Who is the favourite in Preston North End vs Sheffield United?
Our model's most likely result is Sheffield United win at 41.0%. Full probabilities: Preston North End 31.3%, draw 27.7%, Sheffield United 41.0%.
What is the most likely score in Preston North End vs Sheffield United?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.2%. The model expects 1.16 goals for Preston North End and 1.37 for Sheffield United.
Will Preston North End vs Sheffield United have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 46.5% and both teams to score 51.9%.
Probabilities come from a statistical score model and describe uncertainty, not guaranteed outcomes.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-21
- Matches used
- 6,575
- Model version
- dc-v4-a4d2dbda299a
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →