Championship · Gameweek 14
West Bromwich Albion vs Southampton Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Southampton 41.7%
Our Championship record: the most likely result happened in 0 of 1 predictions (0%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
West Bromwich Albion vs Southampton: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 51.9% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 56.1% in the model.
West Bromwich Albion are 10th on 14 points after 9 matches; Southampton are 6th on 14. In 8 Championship meetings since 2006-07, West Bromwich Albion won 0, Southampton won 4 and 4 were drawn. They last met on 11 Mar 2026: West Bromwich Albion 1–1 Southampton. In their last 5 league matches West Bromwich Albion won 2 and Southampton won 2.
Home and away form
West Bromwich Albion at home
5 played · 2W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Birmingham City · 0–1 (L)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Queens Park Rangers · 1–1 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Watford · 1–0 (W)
- 2 Sept 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 1–1 (D)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Burnley · 3–1 (W)
Southampton away
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Wrexham · 1–2 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Lincoln City · 1–1 (D)
- 1 Sept 2026 · Birmingham City · 1–1 (D)
- 16 Aug 2026 · Watford · 1–2 (L)
- 2 May 2026 · Preston North End · 3–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
West Bromwich Albion vs Southampton: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51.9%Under 48.1%
- Both teams score
- 56.1%No 43.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.27 – 1.48Total 2.75 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 23% · 28%West Bromwich Albion · Southampton
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76.6% | 23.4% |
| 2.5 | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| 3.5 | 29.7% | 70.3% |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Interactive score model explorer
West Bromwich Albion vs Southampton: explore the scoreline grid
Starts from the model's published expected goals for this match. Move the sliders to test how a stronger or weaker side changes every scoreline, the result probabilities and the over/under and both-teams-to-score figures.
Published model: 31.9% · 26.4% · 41.7% — this grid is rebuilt from the published expected goals and matches them to within about half a percentage point.
- West Bromwich Albion win
- 32.0%
- Draw
- 26.3%
- Southampton win
- 41.6%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51.9%Under 48.1%
- Both teams score
- 56.0%No 44.0%
- Clean sheet
- 23% · 28%West Bromwich Albion · Southampton
Scoreline probability grid
1–1 12.5% · most likely
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Select a scoreline to see what that result would do to the Championship season outlook.
Draws (diagonal) Most likely scoreBelow the diagonal: west bromwich albion wins · above: southampton wins
Cells show percent. The 0–5 grid covers 99.4% of the probability mass; the outcome totals above sum over the full 0–12 goal grid so they add to 100.0%. Darker cells are more likely.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects West Bromwich Albion to score 1.27 goals and Southampton 1.48. Its ratings have West Bromwich Albion scoring at 0.91 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.88 times, against 1.46 and 0.97 for Southampton. How the model works.
Questions about West Bromwich Albion vs Southampton
Who is the favourite in West Bromwich Albion vs Southampton?
Our model's most likely result is Southampton win at 41.7%. Full probabilities: West Bromwich Albion 31.9%, draw 26.4%, Southampton 41.7%.
What is the most likely score in West Bromwich Albion vs Southampton?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.5%. The model expects 1.27 goals for West Bromwich Albion and 1.48 for Southampton.
Will West Bromwich Albion vs Southampton have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 51.9% and both teams to score 56.1%.
Probabilities come from a statistical score model and describe uncertainty, not guaranteed outcomes.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-21
- Matches used
- 6,575
- Model version
- dc-v4-a4d2dbda299a
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →