Championship · Gameweek 12
West Ham vs Southampton Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: West Ham 48.8%
Prediction probabilities
West Ham vs Southampton: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 73.8% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 72.3% in the model.
West Ham are 6th on 16 points after 9 matches; Southampton are 3rd on 17. In their last 5 league matches West Ham won 3 and Southampton won 3.
Home and away form
West Ham at home
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 3.0 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 9 Oct 2026 · Queens Park Rangers · 1–1 (D)
- 11 Sept 2026 · Wrexham · 6–0 (W)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Derby County · 3–0 (W)
- 1 Sept 2026 · Wolverhampton · 4–2 (W)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 1–2 (L)
Southampton away
5 played · 1W · 2D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Wrexham · 1–2 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Lincoln City · 1–1 (D)
- 1 Sept 2026 · Birmingham City · 1–1 (D)
- 16 Aug 2026 · Watford · 1–2 (L)
- 2 May 2026 · Preston North End · 3–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 73.8%Under 26.2%
- Both teams score
- 72.3%No 27.7%
- Predicted goals
- 2.16 – 1.68Total 3.84 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 19% · 12%West Ham · Southampton
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 89.9% | 10.1% |
| 2.5 | 73.8% | 26.2% |
| 3.5 | 53.5% | 46.5% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects West Ham to score 2.16 goals and Southampton 1.68. Its ratings have West Ham scoring at 1.58 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.01 times, against 1.43 and 0.95 for Southampton. How the model works.
Questions about West Ham vs Southampton
Who is the favourite in West Ham vs Southampton?
Our model's most likely result is West Ham win at 48.8%. Full probabilities: West Ham 48.8%, draw 21.1%, Southampton 30.1%.
What is the most likely score in West Ham vs Southampton?
2–1 is the single most likely score at 8.4%. The model expects 2.16 goals for West Ham and 1.68 for Southampton.
Will West Ham vs Southampton have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 73.8% and both teams to score 72.3%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 3,427
- Model version
- dc-v4-7dc9466ef45e
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.