Championship · Gameweek 14
Birmingham City vs Millwall Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Birmingham City 37.3%
Our Championship record: the most likely result happened in 0 of 1 predictions (0%; a random pick of home, draw or away is right about one time in three), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Birmingham City vs Millwall: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 59.4% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 52.6% in the model.
Birmingham City are 8th on 14 points after 9 matches; Millwall are 9th on 14. In 24 Championship meetings since 2011-12, Birmingham City won 8, Millwall won 8 and 8 were drawn. They last met on 25 Feb 2026: Millwall 3–0 Birmingham City. In their last 5 league matches Birmingham City won 2 and Millwall won 2.
Home and away form
Birmingham City at home
4 played · 0W · 4D · 0L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Middlesbrough · 2–2 (D)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Wolverhampton · 2–2 (D)
- 1 Sept 2026 · Southampton · 1–1 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Bristol City · 2–2 (D)
Millwall away
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · Preston North End · 1–0 (W)
- 15 Sept 2026 · Middlesbrough · 2–2 (D)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Blackburn Rovers · 1–3 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Southampton · 1–5 (L)
- 15 Aug 2026 · Bristol City · 2–0 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Birmingham City vs Millwall: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40.6%Under 59.4%
- Both teams score
- 47.4%No 52.6%
- Predicted goals
- 1.19 – 1.11Total 2.31 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 33% · 30%Birmingham City · Millwall
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67.7% | 32.3% |
| 2.5 | 40.6% | 59.4% |
| 3.5 | 20.2% | 79.8% |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Interactive score model explorer
Birmingham City vs Millwall: explore the scoreline grid
Starts from the model's published expected goals for this match. Move the sliders to test how a stronger or weaker side changes every scoreline, the result probabilities and the over/under and both-teams-to-score figures.
Published model: 37.3% · 29.4% · 33.3% — this grid is rebuilt from the published expected goals and matches them to within about half a percentage point.
- Birmingham City win
- 37.3%
- Draw
- 29.4%
- Millwall win
- 33.3%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40.4%Under 59.6%
- Both teams score
- 47.2%No 52.8%
- Clean sheet
- 33% · 30%Birmingham City · Millwall
Scoreline probability grid
1–1 13.8% · most likely
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.8 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Select a scoreline to see what that result would do to the Championship season outlook.
Draws (diagonal) Most likely scoreBelow the diagonal: birmingham city wins · above: millwall wins
Cells show percent. The 0–5 grid covers 99.8% of the probability mass; the outcome totals above sum over the full 0–12 goal grid so they add to 100.0%. Darker cells are more likely.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Birmingham City to score 1.19 goals and Millwall 1.11. Its ratings have Birmingham City scoring at 0.95 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.96 times, against 1.01 and 0.88 for Millwall. How the model works.
Questions about Birmingham City vs Millwall
Who is the favourite in Birmingham City vs Millwall?
Our model's most likely result is Birmingham City win at 37.3%. Full probabilities: Birmingham City 37.3%, draw 29.4%, Millwall 33.3%.
What is the most likely score in Birmingham City vs Millwall?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.8%. The model expects 1.19 goals for Birmingham City and 1.11 for Millwall.
Will Birmingham City vs Millwall have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 40.6% and both teams to score 47.4%.
Probabilities come from a statistical score model and describe uncertainty, not guaranteed outcomes.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-21
- Matches used
- 6,575
- Model version
- dc-v4-a4d2dbda299a
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →