Championship · Gameweek 12
Cardiff City vs Birmingham City Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Birmingham City 37.5%
Prediction probabilities
Cardiff City vs Birmingham City: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 52.1% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 53.1% in the model.
Cardiff City are 18th on 10 points after 10 matches; Birmingham City are 4th on 17. In 8 Championship meetings since 2020-21, Cardiff City won 5, Birmingham City won 1 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 10 Apr 2024: Birmingham City 0–1 Cardiff City. In their last 5 league matches Cardiff City won 2 and Birmingham City won 3.
Home and away form
Cardiff City at home
5 played · 2W · 3D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.4 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 13 Oct 2026 · Watford · 5–1 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 3–1 (W)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Stoke City · 1–1 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Sheffield United · 2–2 (D)
- 17 Aug 2026 · Wrexham · 1–1 (D)
Birmingham City away
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 10 Oct 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 1–0 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Derby County · 2–1 (W)
- 9 Sept 2026 · Norwich City · 1–2 (L)
- 28 Aug 2026 · Wrexham · 2–1 (W)
- 15 Aug 2026 · Sheffield United · 0–0 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47.9%Under 52.1%
- Both teams score
- 53.1%No 46.9%
- Predicted goals
- 1.27 – 1.32Total 2.59 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 27% · 28%Cardiff City · Birmingham City
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73.5% | 26.5% |
| 2.5 | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| 3.5 | 26.2% | 73.8% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Cardiff City to score 1.27 goals and Birmingham City 1.32. Its ratings have Cardiff City scoring at 0.94 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.16 times, against 0.98 and 0.94 for Birmingham City. How the model works.
Questions about Cardiff City vs Birmingham City
Who is the favourite in Cardiff City vs Birmingham City?
Our model's most likely result is Birmingham City win at 37.5%. Full probabilities: Cardiff City 35.3%, draw 27.3%, Birmingham City 37.5%.
What is the most likely score in Cardiff City vs Birmingham City?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 13.0%. The model expects 1.27 goals for Cardiff City and 1.32 for Birmingham City.
Will Cardiff City vs Birmingham City have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 47.9% and both teams to score 53.1%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 3,427
- Model version
- dc-v4-7dc9466ef45e
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.