Championship · Gameweek 14
Cardiff City vs West Ham Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: West Ham 62.4%
Football is hard to predict, and the model's most likely result is often wrong. What we offer is a record you can check. Our Championship record: the most likely result happened in 5 of 13 predictions (38%), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Cardiff City vs West Ham: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 69.7% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 64.4% in the model.
Cardiff City are 19th on 11 points after 11 matches; West Ham are 2nd on 22. In 2 Championship meetings since 2011-12, Cardiff City won 1, West Ham won 1 and none were drawn. They last met on 4 Mar 2012: Cardiff City 0–2 West Ham. In their last 5 league matches Cardiff City won 2 and West Ham won 3.
Home and away form
Cardiff City at home
4 played · 2W · 2D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.8 scored · 1.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 13 Oct 2026 · Watford · 5–1 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Charlton Athletic · 3–1 (W)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Stoke City · 1–1 (D)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Sheffield United · 2–2 (D)
West Ham away
5 played · 3W · 2D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.6 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Swansea City · 1–0 (W)
- 14 Oct 2026 · Lincoln City · 6–0 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Millwall · 2–2 (D)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Bolton Wanderers · 3–2 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Watford · 1–1 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Cardiff City vs West Ham: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 69.7%Under 30.3%
- Both teams score
- 64.4%No 35.6%
- Predicted goals
- 1.23 – 2.37Total 3.60 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 9% · 29%Cardiff City · West Ham
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87.6% | 12.4% |
| 2.5 | 69.7% | 30.3% |
| 3.5 | 48.5% | 51.5% |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Interactive score model explorer
Cardiff City vs West Ham: explore the scoreline grid
Starts from the model's published expected goals for this match. Move the sliders to test how a stronger or weaker side changes every scoreline, the result probabilities and the over/under and both-teams-to-score figures.
Published model: 18.5% · 19.2% · 62.4% — this grid is rebuilt from the published expected goals and matches them to within about half a percentage point.
- Cardiff City win
- 18.3%
- Draw
- 19.2%
- West Ham win
- 62.5%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 69.7%Under 30.3%
- Both teams score
- 64.4%No 35.6%
- Clean sheet
- 9% · 29%Cardiff City · West Ham
Scoreline probability grid
1–2 9.4% · most likely
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Select a scoreline to see what that result would do to the Championship season outlook.
Draws (diagonal) Most likely scoreBelow the diagonal: cardiff city wins · above: west ham wins
Cells show percent. The 0–5 grid covers 96.4% of the probability mass; the outcome totals above sum over the full 0–12 goal grid so they add to 100.0%. Darker cells are more likely.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Cardiff City to score 1.23 goals and West Ham 2.37. Its ratings have Cardiff City scoring at 0.96 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.15 times, against 1.76 and 0.89 for West Ham. How the model works.
Questions about Cardiff City vs West Ham
Who is the favourite in Cardiff City vs West Ham?
Our model's most likely result is West Ham win at 62.4%. Full probabilities: Cardiff City 18.5%, draw 19.2%, West Ham 62.4%.
What is the most likely score in Cardiff City vs West Ham?
1–2 is the single most likely score at 9.4%. The model expects 1.23 goals for Cardiff City and 2.37 for West Ham.
Will Cardiff City vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 69.7% and both teams to score 64.4%.
Probabilities come from a statistical score model and describe uncertainty, not guaranteed outcomes.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-22
- Matches used
- 6,599
- Model version
- dc-v4-f839afe86ff9
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →