Championship · Gameweek 14
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Middlesbrough 37.8%
Football is hard to predict, and the model's most likely result is often wrong. What we offer is a record you can check. Our Championship record: the most likely result happened in 5 of 13 predictions (38%), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 58.1% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 60.9% in the model.
Wrexham are 14th on 14 points after 11 matches; Middlesbrough are 3rd on 22. In 2 Championship meetings since 2025-26, Wrexham won 0, Middlesbrough won 0 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 2 May 2026: Wrexham 2–2 Middlesbrough. In their last 5 league matches Wrexham won 2 and Middlesbrough won 2.
Home and away form
Wrexham at home
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.8 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Preston North End · 4–1 (W)
- 13 Oct 2026 · West Bromwich Albion · 1–2 (L)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Southampton · 2–1 (W)
- 8 Sept 2026 · Burnley · 1–1 (D)
- 28 Aug 2026 · Birmingham City · 1–2 (L)
Middlesbrough away
5 played · 2W · 2D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.6 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 13 Oct 2026 · Stoke City · 3–2 (W)
- 19 Sept 2026 · Birmingham City · 2–2 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Queens Park Rangers · 1–0 (W)
- 2 Sept 2026 · Burnley · 1–1 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Blackburn Rovers · 1–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58.1%Under 41.9%
- Both teams score
- 60.9%No 39.1%
- Predicted goals
- 1.51 – 1.51Total 3.02 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 22% · 22%Wrexham · Middlesbrough
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80.6% | 19.4% |
| 2.5 | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| 3.5 | 35.7% | 64.3% |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Interactive score model explorer
Wrexham vs Middlesbrough: explore the scoreline grid
Starts from the model's published expected goals for this match. Move the sliders to test how a stronger or weaker side changes every scoreline, the result probabilities and the over/under and both-teams-to-score figures.
Published model: 37.5% · 24.7% · 37.8% — this grid is rebuilt from the published expected goals and matches them to within about half a percentage point.
- Wrexham win
- 37.7%
- Draw
- 24.7%
- Middlesbrough win
- 37.7%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58.1%Under 41.9%
- Both teams score
- 60.9%No 39.1%
- Clean sheet
- 22% · 22%Wrexham · Middlesbrough
Scoreline probability grid
1–1 11.3% · most likely
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Select a scoreline to see what that result would do to the Championship season outlook.
Draws (diagonal) Most likely scoreBelow the diagonal: wrexham wins · above: middlesbrough wins
Cells show percent. The 0–5 grid covers 99.1% of the probability mass; the outcome totals above sum over the full 0–12 goal grid so they add to 100.0%. Darker cells are more likely.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Wrexham to score 1.51 goals and Middlesbrough 1.51. Its ratings have Wrexham scoring at 1.13 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 1.08 times, against 1.21 and 0.93 for Middlesbrough. How the model works.
Questions about Wrexham vs Middlesbrough
Who is the favourite in Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?
Our model's most likely result is Middlesbrough win at 37.8%. Full probabilities: Wrexham 37.5%, draw 24.7%, Middlesbrough 37.8%.
What is the most likely score in Wrexham vs Middlesbrough?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.4%. The model expects 1.51 goals for Wrexham and 1.51 for Middlesbrough.
Will Wrexham vs Middlesbrough have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 58.1% and both teams to score 60.9%.
Probabilities come from a statistical score model and describe uncertainty, not guaranteed outcomes.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-22
- Matches used
- 6,599
- Model version
- dc-v4-f839afe86ff9
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →