Championship · Gameweek 14
Bristol City vs Wolverhampton Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Wolverhampton 38.1%
Football is hard to predict, and the model's most likely result is often wrong. What we offer is a record you can check. Our Championship record: the most likely result happened in 5 of 13 predictions (38%), each published before kickoff and never edited. See every prediction ›
Bristol City vs Wolverhampton: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 52.5% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 56.6% in the model.
Bristol City are 16th on 14 points after 11 matches; Wolverhampton are 8th on 18. In 12 Championship meetings since 2007-08, Bristol City won 2, Wolverhampton won 6 and 4 were drawn. They last met on 30 Dec 2017: Bristol City 1–2 Wolverhampton. In their last 5 league matches Bristol City won 1 and Wolverhampton won 2.
Home and away form
Bristol City at home
5 played · 2W · 0D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.6 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 17 Oct 2026 · Sheffield United · 0–1 (L)
- 13 Oct 2026 · Blackburn Rovers · 0–1 (L)
- 18 Sept 2026 · Watford · 1–0 (W)
- 15 Sept 2026 · Lincoln City · 0–1 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Portsmouth · 2–1 (W)
Wolverhampton away
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 16 Oct 2026 · Burnley · 2–1 (W)
- 10 Oct 2026 · Middlesbrough · 0–1 (L)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Sheffield United · 1–0 (W)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Birmingham City · 2–2 (D)
- 1 Sept 2026 · West Ham · 2–4 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Bristol City vs Wolverhampton: attack and defence ratings
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52.5%Under 47.5%
- Both teams score
- 56.6%No 43.4%
- Predicted goals
- 1.36 – 1.41Total 2.78 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 24% · 26%Bristol City · Wolverhampton
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over probability | Under probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76.8% | 23.3% |
| 2.5 | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| 3.5 | 30.3% | 69.7% |
Compare observed club rates in the over 2.5 goals leaderboard and BTTS leaderboard. These historical rates are separate from this match's model probabilities.
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated. Read how the expected goals model and Dixon–Coles low-score correction work, or how to interpret over/under and both teams to score.
Interactive score model explorer
Bristol City vs Wolverhampton: explore the scoreline grid
Starts from the model's published expected goals for this match. Move the sliders to test how a stronger or weaker side changes every scoreline, the result probabilities and the over/under and both-teams-to-score figures.
Published model: 36.0% · 25.9% · 38.1% — this grid is rebuilt from the published expected goals and matches them to within about half a percentage point.
- Bristol City win
- 35.9%
- Draw
- 25.9%
- Wolverhampton win
- 38.2%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52.3%Under 47.7%
- Both teams score
- 56.4%No 43.6%
- Clean sheet
- 24% · 26%Bristol City · Wolverhampton
Scoreline probability grid
1–1 12.3% · most likely
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Select a scoreline to see what that result would do to the Championship season outlook.
Draws (diagonal) Most likely scoreBelow the diagonal: bristol city wins · above: wolverhampton wins
Cells show percent. The 0–5 grid covers 99.4% of the probability mass; the outcome totals above sum over the full 0–12 goal grid so they add to 100.0%. Darker cells are more likely.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Bristol City to score 1.36 goals and Wolverhampton 1.41. Its ratings have Bristol City scoring at 0.94 times the model's Championship average and conceding at 0.99 times, against 1.23 and 1.01 for Wolverhampton. How the model works.
Questions about Bristol City vs Wolverhampton
Who is the favourite in Bristol City vs Wolverhampton?
Our model's most likely result is Wolverhampton win at 38.1%. Full probabilities: Bristol City 36.0%, draw 25.9%, Wolverhampton 38.1%.
What is the most likely score in Bristol City vs Wolverhampton?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.2%. The model expects 1.36 goals for Bristol City and 1.41 for Wolverhampton.
Will Bristol City vs Wolverhampton have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 52.5% and both teams to score 56.6%.
Probabilities come from a statistical score model and describe uncertainty, not guaranteed outcomes.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-22
- Matches used
- 6,599
- Model version
- dc-v4-f839afe86ff9
- Data source
- Finished Championship scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.
Keep going
Explore how upcoming results change the Championship season outlook →