Bundesliga · independent league model
Does Home Advantage Still Matter in the Bundesliga?
Home teams won 44.7% of 351 matches.
351 completed matches across 2025-26, 2026-27.
| Season | Matches | Home wins | Draws | Away wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 306 | 134 | 75 | 97 |
| 2026-27 | 45 | 23 | 9 | 13 |
- Results up to
- 2026-10-11
- Matches used
- 351
- Data source
- Project database
- Method
- Home win share of finished Bundesliga matches; no odds required.
- 95% range
- 0.395 – 0.499
- Limitations
- One published sample. This is not a betting recommendation.
Sources and limitations
Fixtures, results and provider standings: football-data.org. Completed score history since 2020-21: OpenFootball and football-data.org. Forecasts use only results available before their publication time.
Older archive records without a verified timezone use the end of the match date in UTC. Recent seasons use exact football-data.org timestamps. This keeps historical results out of training until their conservative availability time.
No verified injury or confirmed-lineup adjustment is included for Bundesliga. Promotion playoffs and promotion probabilities are outside this model. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Check this league's model record.