La Liga · 2026-27
La Liga season simulator
What would a win, draw or defeat mean for the season? Choose match results to explore how the outlook changes for every club.
What if these results happen?
Choose up to three upcoming results. We replay the remaining season with these outcomes fixed and compare it with an unchanged baseline.
No scenario applied. The table shows the published baseline.
Published season outlook
Clubs are ordered by projected points.
| # | Club | Pointsprojected | Finishlikely position | Win leaguechance | Top 4chance | Relegatedbottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 91.8 | 1.1 | 88.4% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 79.2 | 2.3 | 8.4% | 98.5% | 0.0% |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 74.9 | 2.9 | 3.2% | 94.6% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Real Betis | 64.1 | 5.0 | 0.1% | 53.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | Villarreal | 57.0 | 7.1 | 0.0% | 17.5% | 0.4% |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 54.1 | 8.5 | 0.0% | 9.0% | 1.5% |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 53.5 | 8.7 | 0.0% | 9.2% | 2.0% |
| 8 | Sevilla | 52.5 | 9.2 | 0.0% | 6.2% | 2.2% |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 48.3 | 11.1 | 0.0% | 2.4% | 6.2% |
| 10 | Alaves | 47.7 | 11.5 | 0.0% | 1.9% | 7.1% |
| 11 | Deportivo La Coruna | 47.6 | 11.6 | 0.0% | 3.4% | 11.8% |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 47.2 | 11.9 | 0.0% | 1.8% | 9.6% |
| 13 | Levante | 43.9 | 13.5 | 0.0% | 0.6% | 19.1% |
| 14 | Osasuna | 43.3 | 14.0 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 21.4% |
| 15 | Elche | 43.2 | 13.9 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 21.6% |
| 16 | Getafe | 43.2 | 13.9 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 20.3% |
| 17 | Espanyol | 42.3 | 14.3 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 23.5% |
| 18 | Valencia | 41.2 | 14.9 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 29.4% |
| 19 | Racing Santander | 37.1 | 16.6 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 54.1% |
| 20 | Malaga | 33.2 | 17.8 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 69.8% |
Percentages are the model's estimated chance of each outcome, not a guarantee. Likely position: 1 is the top, so a lower number is better. “Top 4” means league position only, not confirmed European qualification.
How scenarios work and their limits
The model is fitted to historical results. Separately, this tool runs 20,000 simulated seasons for both the baseline and your scenario, using the published model's sampled club strengths and calibration. Chosen results are fixed in every run; scores within each chosen win, draw or loss are still sampled. Existing results and known points adjustments are preserved.
The two outlooks share random draws, so their comparison isolates your chosen results. Club ratings are not refitted after hypothetical results. This browser simulation uses a different random sequence from the published table, so its paired baseline can differ slightly. Small changes may be sampling noise; simulation count is separate from the number of historical training matches.
Rankings use points, goal difference and goals scored, with random ordering for remaining ties. League-specific head-to-head rules, title-deciding matches, promotion and relegation play-offs and European qualification rules are not simulated. Future transfers, team news and changing ratings are not modelled.
Weekly probability changes
A comparison will appear once a snapshot from an earlier UTC week is available for this season. Earlier probabilities are kept as published; no historical changes are reconstructed.