Premier League · 2026-27
Premier League season simulator
What would a win, draw or defeat mean for the season? Choose match results to explore how the outlook changes for every club.
What if these results happen?
Choose up to three upcoming results. We replay the remaining season with these outcomes fixed and compare it with an unchanged baseline.
No scenario applied. The table shows the published baseline.
Published season outlook
Clubs are ordered by projected points.
| # | Club | Pointsprojected | Finishlikely position | Win leaguechance | Top 4chance | Relegatedbottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 82.7 | 1.4 | 66.2% | 99.4% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Arsenal | 77.5 | 2.1 | 29.5% | 96.7% | 0.0% |
| 3 | Liverpool | 64.8 | 4.7 | 2.0% | 59.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | Brighton | 62.1 | 5.4 | 1.1% | 46.8% | 0.2% |
| 5 | Chelsea | 60.8 | 6.0 | 0.7% | 37.8% | 0.2% |
| 6 | Brentford | 54.6 | 8.5 | 0.1% | 14.0% | 1.7% |
| 7 | Newcastle | 53.0 | 9.4 | 0.1% | 9.6% | 3.1% |
| 8 | Manchester United | 52.3 | 9.6 | 0.1% | 9.5% | 3.4% |
| 9 | Leeds United | 50.8 | 10.4 | 0.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 50.2 | 10.8 | 0.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% |
| 11 | Everton | 47.9 | 12.0 | 0.0% | 2.7% | 9.2% |
| 12 | Hull City | 46.5 | 12.6 | 0.0% | 4.2% | 17.7% |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 46.4 | 12.7 | 0.0% | 2.0% | 14.3% |
| 14 | Nottingham Forest | 45.5 | 13.1 | 0.0% | 1.5% | 16.1% |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 45.5 | 13.2 | 0.0% | 1.6% | 16.9% |
| 16 | Fulham | 42.8 | 14.5 | 0.0% | 0.6% | 25.4% |
| 17 | Tottenham | 42.3 | 14.8 | 0.0% | 0.6% | 29.4% |
| 18 | Sunderland | 42.0 | 14.8 | 0.0% | 0.8% | 31.0% |
| 19 | Coventry City | 37.7 | 16.4 | 0.0% | 0.6% | 53.0% |
| 20 | Ipswich | 35.3 | 17.6 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 66.1% |
Percentages are the model's estimated chance of each outcome, not a guarantee. Likely position: 1 is the top, so a lower number is better. “Top 4” means league position only, not confirmed European qualification.
How scenarios work and their limits
The model is fitted to historical results. Separately, this tool runs 20,000 simulated seasons for both the baseline and your scenario, using the published model's sampled club strengths and calibration. Chosen results are fixed in every run; scores within each chosen win, draw or loss are still sampled. Existing results and known points adjustments are preserved.
The two outlooks share random draws, so their comparison isolates your chosen results. Club ratings are not refitted after hypothetical results. This browser simulation uses a different random sequence from the published table, so its paired baseline can differ slightly. Small changes may be sampling noise; simulation count is separate from the number of historical training matches.
Rankings use points, goal difference and goals scored, with random ordering for remaining ties. League-specific head-to-head rules, title-deciding matches, promotion and relegation play-offs and European qualification rules are not simulated. Future transfers, team news and changing ratings are not modelled.
Premier League weekly probability changes
Latest projection (17 Oct 2026, 17:50 UTC, 64 completed matches) versus the snapshot published 11 Oct 2026, 23:31 UTC (59 completed matches).
- Title: Manchester City had the largest absolute change, -0.7 percentage points.
- Top 4: Chelsea had the largest absolute change, +9.5 percentage points.
- Bottom 3: Coventry City had the largest absolute change, -29.4 percentage points.
| Club | Title Δ pp | Top 4 Δ pp | Bottom 3 Δ pp | Projected pts Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | -0.7 | +0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 |
| Arsenal | +0.3 | +0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Liverpool | +0.5 | +8.1 | 0.0 | +1.5 |
| Brighton | -0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | -0.2 |
| Chelsea | +0.3 | +9.5 | -0.1 | +1.9 |
| Brentford | -0.1 | -5.0 | +0.9 | -1.8 |
| Newcastle | -0.1 | -8.2 | +2.0 | -3.0 |
| Manchester United | 0.0 | +0.2 | +0.6 | -0.4 |
| Leeds United | +0.1 | -0.4 | +1.7 | -0.6 |
| Aston Villa | 0.0 | -0.2 | +1.9 | -0.4 |
| Everton | 0.0 | -1.9 | +4.7 | -2.3 |
| Hull City | -0.2 | -3.1 | +5.0 | -2.1 |
| Bournemouth | 0.0 | -0.2 | +2.3 | -0.3 |
| Nottingham Forest | 0.0 | -0.1 | +2.6 | -0.3 |
| Crystal Palace | 0.0 | 0.0 | +3.9 | -0.5 |
| Fulham | 0.0 | +0.2 | -3.4 | +1.4 |
| Tottenham | 0.0 | 0.0 | +5.2 | -0.4 |
| Sunderland | 0.0 | +0.1 | +4.1 | -0.3 |
| Coventry City | 0.0 | +0.5 | -29.4 | +8.3 |
| Ipswich | 0.0 | 0.0 | -2.2 | +0.8 |
pp means percentage points, not a relative percentage change. The baseline is the latest saved snapshot from an earlier UTC week, which may be more than seven days old. Differences can reflect new results, model updates and simulation variation; they do not isolate a single match's effect. Top 4 is a finishing position, not a guarantee of qualification or promotion. Bottom 3 measures league finishing positions.