Serie A · Gameweek 7
Frosinone vs Sassuolo Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Frosinone 42.2%
Prediction probabilities
Frosinone vs Sassuolo: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 55.6% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 58.8% in the model.
Frosinone are 9th on 10 points after 6 matches; Sassuolo are 11th on 8. In 2 Serie A meetings since 2023-24, Frosinone won 1, Sassuolo won 1 and none were drawn. They last met on 9 Mar 2024: Sassuolo 1–0 Frosinone. In their last 5 league matches Frosinone won 3 and Sassuolo won 2.
Home and away form
Frosinone at home
3 played · 2W · 0D · 1L
Goals per match: 1.7 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Como · 2–0 (W)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Venezia · 3–2 (W)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Juventus · 0–1 (L)
Sassuolo away
5 played · 0W · 1D · 4L
Goals per match: 1.0 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 18 Sept 2026 · Monza · 1–2 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Bologna · 2–2 (D)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Atalanta · 1–2 (L)
- 24 May 2026 · Parma · 0–1 (L)
- 8 May 2026 · Torino · 1–2 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55.6%Under 44.4%
- Both teams score
- 58.8%No 41.2%
- Predicted goals
- 1.56 – 1.35Total 2.91 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 26% · 21%Frosinone · Sassuolo
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79.0% | 21.0% |
| 2.5 | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| 3.5 | 33.2% | 66.8% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Frosinone to score 1.56 goals and Sassuolo 1.35. Its ratings have Frosinone scoring at 1.07 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 1.07 times, against 1.08 and 1.11 for Sassuolo. How the model works.
Questions about Frosinone vs Sassuolo
Who is the favourite in Frosinone vs Sassuolo?
Our model's most likely result is Frosinone win at 42.2%. Full probabilities: Frosinone 42.2%, draw 25.2%, Sassuolo 32.6%.
What is the most likely score in Frosinone vs Sassuolo?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 11.8%. The model expects 1.56 goals for Frosinone and 1.35 for Sassuolo.
Will Frosinone vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 55.6% and both teams to score 58.8%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,340
- Model version
- dc-v4-a2f6319e3c5b
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.