Serie A · Gameweek 7
Roma vs Genoa Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Roma 62.4%
Prediction probabilities
Roma vs Genoa: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 53.6% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 56.3% in the model.
Roma are 3rd on 14 points after 6 matches; Genoa are 17th on 4. In 10 Serie A meetings since 2020-21, Roma won 6, Genoa won 2 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 8 Mar 2026: Genoa 2–1 Roma. In their last 5 league matches Roma won 3 and Genoa won 1.
Home and away form
Roma at home
5 played · 4W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 2.8 scored · 0.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Inter Milan · 2–2 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Atalanta · 2–1 (W)
- 24 Aug 2026 · Fiorentina · 4–0 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Lazio · 2–0 (W)
- 4 May 2026 · Fiorentina · 4–0 (W)
Genoa away
5 played · 0W · 2D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.2 scored · 0.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Parma · 1–2 (L)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Lazio · 0–1 (L)
- 24 May 2026 · Lecce · 0–1 (L)
- 10 May 2026 · Fiorentina · 0–0 (D)
- 2 May 2026 · Atalanta · 0–0 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46.4%Under 53.6%
- Both teams score
- 43.7%No 56.3%
- Predicted goals
- 1.79 – 0.74Total 2.53 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 48% · 17%Roma · Genoa
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72.1% | 27.9% |
| 2.5 | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| 3.5 | 24.9% | 75.1% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Roma to score 1.79 goals and Genoa 0.74. Its ratings have Roma scoring at 1.35 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 0.70 times, against 0.90 and 1.01 for Genoa. How the model works.
Questions about Roma vs Genoa
Who is the favourite in Roma vs Genoa?
Our model's most likely result is Roma win at 62.4%. Full probabilities: Roma 62.4%, draw 23.1%, Genoa 14.6%.
What is the most likely score in Roma vs Genoa?
1–0 is the single most likely score at 14.0%. The model expects 1.79 goals for Roma and 0.74 for Genoa.
Will Roma vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 46.4% and both teams to score 43.7%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,340
- Model version
- dc-v4-a2f6319e3c5b
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.