Serie A · Gameweek 7
Udinese vs Lecce Prediction
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Forecast published
Model: Udinese 48.9%
Prediction probabilities
Udinese vs Lecce: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 60.6% in the model.
- Both teams to score — No: 56.0% in the model.
Udinese are 15th on 4 points after 6 matches; Lecce are 13th on 6. In 8 Serie A meetings since 2022-23, Udinese won 4, Lecce won 2 and 2 were drawn. They last met on 8 Feb 2026: Lecce 2–1 Udinese. In their last 5 league matches Udinese won 1 and Lecce won 1.
Home and away form
Udinese at home
5 played · 1W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 0.8 scored · 1.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Cagliari · 0–1 (L)
- 7 Sept 2026 · Lazio · 1–2 (L)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Como · 1–1 (D)
- 17 May 2026 · Cremonese · 0–1 (L)
- 2 May 2026 · Torino · 2–0 (W)
Lecce away
5 played · 3W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · AC Milan · 0–3 (L)
- 7 Sept 2026 · Cagliari · 0–1 (L)
- 23 Aug 2026 · Venezia · 2–0 (W)
- 17 May 2026 · Sassuolo · 3–2 (W)
- 1 May 2026 · Pisa · 2–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39.4%Under 60.6%
- Both teams score
- 44.0%No 56.0%
- Predicted goals
- 1.39 – 0.87Total 2.26 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 42% · 25%Udinese · Lecce
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66.4% | 33.6% |
| 2.5 | 39.4% | 60.6% |
| 3.5 | 19.3% | 80.7% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Udinese to score 1.39 goals and Lecce 0.87. Its ratings have Udinese scoring at 1.00 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 1.05 times, against 0.71 and 1.06 for Lecce. How the model works.
Questions about Udinese vs Lecce
Who is the favourite in Udinese vs Lecce?
Our model's most likely result is Udinese win at 48.9%. Full probabilities: Udinese 48.9%, draw 28.0%, Lecce 23.1%.
What is the most likely score in Udinese vs Lecce?
1–0 is the single most likely score at 14.2%. The model expects 1.39 goals for Udinese and 0.87 for Lecce.
Will Udinese vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 39.4% and both teams to score 44.0%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,340
- Model version
- dc-v4-a2f6319e3c5b
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.