Serie A · Gameweek 7
Fiorentina vs Como Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Como 46.9%
Prediction probabilities
Fiorentina vs Como: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 51.3% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 52.4% in the model.
Fiorentina are 19th on 4 points after 6 matches; Como are 7th on 11. In 4 Serie A meetings since 2024-25, Fiorentina won 2, Como won 2 and none were drawn. They last met on 14 Feb 2026: Como 1–2 Fiorentina. In their last 5 league matches Fiorentina won 1 and Como won 3.
Home and away form
Fiorentina at home
5 played · 0W · 3D · 2L
Goals per match: 0.6 scored · 1.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Napoli · 1–1 (D)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Torino · 1–2 (L)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Frosinone · 0–3 (L)
- 22 May 2026 · Atalanta · 1–1 (D)
- 10 May 2026 · Genoa · 0–0 (D)
Como away
5 played · 3W · 1D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.2 scored · 1.2 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Frosinone · 0–2 (L)
- 4 Sept 2026 · Genoa · 4–1 (W)
- 30 Aug 2026 · Napoli · 2–1 (W)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Udinese · 1–1 (D)
- 24 May 2026 · Cremonese · 4–1 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48.7%Under 51.3%
- Both teams score
- 52.4%No 47.6%
- Predicted goals
- 1.09 – 1.53Total 2.62 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 22% · 33%Fiorentina · Como
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74.0% | 26.0% |
| 2.5 | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| 3.5 | 26.9% | 73.1% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Fiorentina to score 1.09 goals and Como 1.53. Its ratings have Fiorentina scoring at 1.09 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 1.01 times, against 1.30 and 0.77 for Como. How the model works.
Questions about Fiorentina vs Como
Who is the favourite in Fiorentina vs Como?
Our model's most likely result is Como win at 46.9%. Full probabilities: Fiorentina 26.9%, draw 26.2%, Como 46.9%.
What is the most likely score in Fiorentina vs Como?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.5%. The model expects 1.09 goals for Fiorentina and 1.53 for Como.
Will Fiorentina vs Como have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 48.7% and both teams to score 52.4%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,340
- Model version
- dc-v4-a2f6319e3c5b
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.