Serie A · Gameweek 7
AC Milan vs Atalanta Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: AC Milan 40.0%
Prediction probabilities
AC Milan vs Atalanta: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 51.5% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 53.4% in the model.
AC Milan are 5th on 12 points after 6 matches; Atalanta are 10th on 9. In 12 Serie A meetings since 2020-21, AC Milan won 4, Atalanta won 5 and 3 were drawn. They last met on 10 May 2026: AC Milan 2–3 Atalanta. In their last 5 league matches AC Milan won 2 and Atalanta won 2.
Home and away form
AC Milan at home
4 played · 2W · 0D · 2L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 1.3 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Lecce · 3–0 (W)
- 28 Aug 2026 · Venezia · 2–0 (W)
- 24 May 2026 · Cagliari · 1–2 (L)
- 10 May 2026 · Atalanta · 2–3 (L)
Atalanta away
4 played · 1W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 1.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 20 Sept 2026 · Juventus · 0–2 (L)
- 5 Sept 2026 · Roma · 1–2 (L)
- 22 May 2026 · Fiorentina · 1–1 (D)
- 10 May 2026 · AC Milan · 3–2 (W)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48.5%Under 51.5%
- Both teams score
- 53.4%No 46.6%
- Predicted goals
- 1.38 – 1.24Total 2.62 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 29% · 25%AC Milan · Atalanta
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73.9% | 26.1% |
| 2.5 | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| 3.5 | 26.7% | 73.3% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent meetings
Full head-to-head ›Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects AC Milan to score 1.38 goals and Atalanta 1.24. Its ratings have AC Milan scoring at 1.28 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 0.81 times, against 1.31 and 0.82 for Atalanta. How the model works.
Questions about AC Milan vs Atalanta
Who is the favourite in AC Milan vs Atalanta?
Our model's most likely result is AC Milan win at 40.0%. Full probabilities: AC Milan 40.0%, draw 26.9%, Atalanta 33.2%.
What is the most likely score in AC Milan vs Atalanta?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.8%. The model expects 1.38 goals for AC Milan and 1.24 for Atalanta.
Will AC Milan vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 48.5% and both teams to score 53.4%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,340
- Model version
- dc-v4-a2f6319e3c5b
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.