Serie A · Gameweek 7
Monza vs Cagliari Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Cagliari 41.3%
Prediction probabilities
Monza vs Cagliari: prediction analysis
- Under 2.5 goals: 52.3% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 52.6% in the model.
Monza are 16th on 4 points after 6 matches; Cagliari are 4th on 13. In 4 Serie A meetings since 2023-24, Monza won 1, Cagliari won 2 and 1 was drawn. They last met on 30 Mar 2025: Cagliari 3–0 Monza. In their last 5 league matches Monza won 1 and Cagliari won 3.
Home and away form
Monza at home
2 played · 1W · 0D · 1L
Goals per match: 2.0 scored · 2.0 conceded
Results in this sample
- 18 Sept 2026 · Sassuolo · 2–1 (W)
- 29 Aug 2026 · Udinese · 2–3 (L)
Cagliari away
5 played · 4W · 1D · 0L
Goals per match: 1.2 scored · 0.4 conceded
Results in this sample
- 19 Sept 2026 · Udinese · 1–0 (W)
- 12 Sept 2026 · Atalanta · 2–1 (W)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Parma · 1–0 (W)
- 24 May 2026 · AC Milan · 2–1 (W)
- 3 May 2026 · Bologna · 0–0 (D)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47.8%Under 52.3%
- Both teams score
- 52.6%No 47.4%
- Predicted goals
- 1.19 – 1.39Total 2.58 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 25% · 30%Monza · Cagliari
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73.3% | 26.7% |
| 2.5 | 47.8% | 52.3% |
| 3.5 | 26.1% | 74.0% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Monza to score 1.19 goals and Cagliari 1.39. Its ratings have Monza scoring at 0.90 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 1.31 times, against 0.92 and 1.01 for Cagliari. How the model works.
Questions about Monza vs Cagliari
Who is the favourite in Monza vs Cagliari?
Our model's most likely result is Cagliari win at 41.3%. Full probabilities: Monza 31.7%, draw 27.0%, Cagliari 41.3%.
What is the most likely score in Monza vs Cagliari?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.8%. The model expects 1.19 goals for Monza and 1.39 for Cagliari.
Will Monza vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 47.8% and both teams to score 52.6%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,340
- Model version
- dc-v4-a2f6319e3c5b
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.