Serie A · Gameweek 8
Torino vs Monza Prediction
Upcoming
Forecast published
Model: Torino 49.9%
Prediction probabilities
Torino vs Monza: prediction analysis
- Over 2.5 goals: 51.1% in the model.
- Both teams to score — Yes: 53.6% in the model.
Torino are 12th on 7 points after 6 matches; Monza are 16th on 4. In 6 Serie A meetings since 2022-23, Torino won 3, Monza won 0 and 3 were drawn. They last met on 2 Mar 2025: Monza 0–2 Torino. In their last 5 league matches Torino won 2 and Monza won 1.
Home and away form
Torino at home
5 played · 2W · 1D · 2L
Goals per match: 1.4 scored · 1.6 conceded
Results in this sample
- 12 Oct 2026 · Udinese · 2–1 (W)
- 14 Sept 2026 · Roma · 0–2 (L)
- 23 Aug 2026 · AC Milan · 1–2 (L)
- 24 May 2026 · Juventus · 2–2 (D)
- 8 May 2026 · Sassuolo · 2–1 (W)
Monza away
4 played · 0W · 1D · 3L
Goals per match: 1.3 scored · 2.8 conceded
Results in this sample
- 11 Oct 2026 · Lazio · 1–3 (L)
- 13 Sept 2026 · Lecce · 2–3 (L)
- 6 Sept 2026 · Parma · 1–1 (D)
- 22 Aug 2026 · Inter Milan · 1–4 (L)
Sample coverage
Up to five venue-specific matches from each team's ten latest published league results, played before this forecast. Small samples do not establish a trend.
Goals and correct score
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51.1%Under 48.9%
- Both teams score
- 53.6%No 46.4%
- Predicted goals
- 1.63 – 1.08Total 2.72 · model, not shot xG
- Clean sheet
- 34% · 20%Torino · Monza
Most likely scores
All goal lines
| Total goals line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75.8% | 24.2% |
| 2.5 | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| 3.5 | 29.0% | 71.0% |
90 minutes only. Goal probabilities have not been separately calibrated.
Form and team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Model context and limitations
The Dixon–Coles model is fitted only on finished matches and does not use injuries or lineups; it expects Torino to score 1.63 goals and Monza 1.08. Its ratings have Torino scoring at 0.95 times the model's Serie A average and conceding at 1.04 times, against 0.90 and 1.31 for Monza. How the model works.
Questions about Torino vs Monza
Who is the favourite in Torino vs Monza?
Our model's most likely result is Torino win at 49.9%. Full probabilities: Torino 49.9%, draw 25.2%, Monza 24.9%.
What is the most likely score in Torino vs Monza?
1–1 is the single most likely score at 12.0%. The model expects 1.63 goals for Torino and 1.08 for Monza.
Will Torino vs Monza have over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring?
The model gives over 2.5 goals 51.1% and both teams to score 53.6%.
Probabilities are not guarantees. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
Evidence and data sources
- Results up to
- 2026-10-14
- Matches used
- 2,340
- Model version
- dc-v4-a2f6319e3c5b
- Data source
- Finished Serie A scores
- Limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.